Orban scales up 'war or peace' campaign as Hungary heads to pivotal vote

Highlights:

• Hungary holds parliamentary election on 12 April
• Nationalist PM Orban could lose power after 16 years
• With economy in doldrums, he wants to make Ukraine war key focus
• Accuses opponent Magyar of taking orders from EU, Zelenskiy
• Public support for Ukraine has been waning in Hungary

Facing the possibility of losing power after 16 years, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has cast Hungary's election on 12 April as a stark choice between "war or peace", saying his opponents would drag the country into the war raging next door in Ukraine.

"We will decide our fate in April. What's at stake is: war or peace," Orban, leader of the nationalist Fidesz party, said on Facebook this week. "For peace, Fidesz is the safe choice."

Hungarian voters have been bombarded with letters from Orban urging them to fill out a "national petition" rejecting European Union financial aid to Ukraine, a message constantly reinforced on state television, which is firmly under government control.

Fidesz has also put up billboards nationwide that depict an obedient-looking opposition leader Peter Magyar saying "yes" as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demands "Money for Ukraine!" and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy asks for weapons.

Orban has long been at loggerheads with the EU over Ukraine, among many other issues. Defying Brussels, he has maintained cordial ties with Moscow, refuses to send weapons to Ukraine, and says Kyiv can never join the EU.

Magyar's centre-right Tisza party, which leads most opinion polls, says it wants Hungary to rejoin the European mainstream after years of strained relations under Orban that has seen crucial EU funds blocked.

Magyar has dismissed Orban's campaign as laughable "propaganda", but Tisza has trodden cautiously on Ukraine, saying it opposes any fast-track EU accession for Kyiv and that it would put the issue to a binding referendum if it wins power.

Ukraine needs the backing of all 27 EU nations to join.

Hungary's economy in doldrums

Political analysts link Orban's focus on the war to the state of Hungary's economy, which remains mired in stagnation after an inflationary surge triggered by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Inflation has since subsided.

"Lacking a strong performance of the economy, Orban tries to present himself as the guarantor of stability and security, saying that if he goes, there will be chaos," said Robert Laszlo from the Budapest think-tank Political Capital.

"This has worked when it comes to strengthening Fidesz' voter base, but it is not yet clear whether he will manage to address undecided voters or lure back voters who drifted to Tisza," Laszlo added.

In the town of Gyongyos, a Fidesz stronghold some 230 km (143 miles) from the Ukraine border, some people said the war was a key concern for them.

"We should not swap stability for the uncertain choice, and especially, no one wants the war," said Szabolcs Dauka, 39.

For others, economic concerns loom larger.

"This (anti-Ukraine) campaign does not interest me, I don't agree with it... It just divides people," said Orsolya Bakos, 56, who has two children. "What matters is the future of our children... Hospitals and education are all in a shambles."

Tough stance

Orban hopes his anti-Ukraine rhetoric will resonate with voters just as his tough stance on migration has done since 2015, when he built a border fence to keep out migrants.

"Taking part in the war is very similar to migration: no jumping in and out. Once you're in, you're in," he told voters during a campaign tour.

He also repeated accusations that Kyiv and Brussels are interfering in Hungary's election, a charge both reject.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry summoned Hungary's ambassador to Kyiv on 28 January to protest about the meddling allegations.

Asked about Orban's campaign rhetoric, the European Commission told Reuters the best way of ending the war and ensuring a lasting peace was to maintain economic pressure on Russia and admit Ukraine to the EU, once it meets the criteria.

However, public sentiment in Hungary towards Kyiv has cooled as the war drags on.

A survey published in December by Policy Solutions and Zavecz Research showed that opposition to EU aid for Ukraine had risen to 63% in 2025 from 41% in 2023, while 64% of Hungarians opposed Kyiv's EU membership.

Andras Biro-Nagy, director of Policy Solutions, a political research institute in Budapest, said Orban's comments on Ukraine might strike a chord beyond his Fidesz base.

"It puts an issue on the table on which opinions may vary even among Tisza supporters and which could also be useful for addressing undecided voters," he said.

Tisza, which is campaigning on promises to tackle corruption and revive the economy, currently has an 8-12 percentage-point lead over Fidesz among decided voters. However, pro-government pollsters show a Fidesz lead, and many voters remain undecided.

Magyar said this week voters wanted to hear about "real issues, pensions, the cost of living, people emigrating from here, pushing down inflation".