Macron navigates rocky path to recognising Palestinian state

Highlights:

• No decision taken but Macron favours Palestinian recognition
• Paris wants to create momentum as two-state solution dissipates
• Israeli lobbies to convince Paris to change course

French President Emmanuel Macron is leaning towards recognising a Palestinian state, but diplomats and experts say such a move may prove a premature and ineffective way to pressure Israel into moving towards a peace deal with the Palestinians.

They say it could deepen Western splits, not only within the already-divided European Union, but also with the United States, Israel's staunchest ally, and would need to be accompanied by other measures such as sanctions and trade bans if recognition were to be anything more than a symbolic gesture.

French officials are weighing up the move ahead of a United Nations conference, which France and Saudi Arabia are co-hosting between June 17-20, to lay out the parameters for a roadmap to a Palestinian state, while ensuring Israel's security.

If Macron went ahead, France, home to Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities, would become the first Western heavyweight to recognise a Palestinian state, potentially giving greater momentum to a movement hitherto dominated by smaller nations that are generally more critical of Israel.

"If France moves, several (European) countries will follow," Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Reuters.

Macron's stance has shifted amid Israel's intensified Gaza offensive and escalating violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and there is a growing sense of urgency in Paris to act now before the idea of a two-state solution vanishes forever.

"We must move from words to deeds. Faced with facts on the ground, the prospect of a Palestinian state must be maintained. Irreversible and concrete measures are necessary," Macron's Middle East adviser Anne-Claire Legendre told delegates at a preparatory meeting in New York on May 23.

Diplomats caution that while Macron now favours the move, he has yet to make a final decision, and things could change - including a potential Gaza ceasefire accord - before mid-June.

However, his diplomats are scrambling to ensure the best conditions are in place for him to make the decision, including full assessments at the UN conference on the reform of the Palestinian Authority, disarming Hamas or future reconstruction.

ISRAELI LOBBYING

Israeli officials have spent months lobbying to prevent what some have described as "a nuclear bomb" for bilateral relations.

The idea that France, one of Israel's closest allies and a G7 member, could recognise a Palestinian state, would certainly infuriate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

When Britain and Canada joined France this month to say they could impose concrete measures on Israel and commit to recognising a Palestinian state, Netanyahu issued a firm rebuke, accusing the leaders of the three countries of antisemitism.

Diplomats say Canada and Britain remain lukewarm for now about recognition, suggesting the priority is to make a difference on the ground, something that may dampen Macron's ambitions.

According to two sources familiar with the matter, Israel's warnings to France have ranged from scaling back intelligence sharing to complicating Paris' regional initiatives - even hinting at possible annexation of parts of the West Bank.

Whether that would materialise seems unlikely, given the likely international fallout fuelling one of Israel's greatest fears: deepening isolation, particularly with regard to Europe, its key trade partner.

"(But) the reaction will be negative across the board (in Israel)," Tamir Hayman, Executive Director at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) told Reuters, adding it would feed an ultra-right narrative in Israel that the world is against it. "It would be useless and a waste of time."

SHIFTING FRENCH VIEWS

Macron strongly backed Israel after Hamas' October 7, 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages. But he has steadily sharpened his language against Israel over its actions in Gaza, where the death toll among Palestinians has risen to more than 50,000, according to Palestinian health officials.

"We need to move towards recognition. Over the next few months, we will," Macron said during an interview on April 9.

Even then, he hedged, setting vague conditions and saying he aimed to build momentum with a coalition backing France while nudging Muslim states toward recognising Israel.

However, there are no indications for now that any new Muslim or Arab states are ready to move towards normalising ties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, the ultimate prize for Israeli normalisation, is in no position for any rapprochement given the anger in many Muslim countries over events in Gaza.

"Regional peace begins with recognising the state of Palestine, not as a symbolic gesture, but as a strategic necessity," Manal Radwan, an adviser to the Saudi foreign minister, said in New York on Friday.

She did not mention the possibility of recognising Israel.

Macron's critics argue that recognition should come as part of negotiations towards a two-state solution - not before - and warning that an early move could weaken incentives for Palestinians to engage.

Underlining divisions within the EU, one European diplomat said: "It is our view that this recognition would not be helpful now or encourage more action within the member states."

Others say recognition must be twinned with other measures such as a Europe-wide ban on trade with illegal Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian territories and specific sanctions on Israeli officials.

French officials say they will not be swayed by such criticism or by the Israeli pressure.