China plans record $411 billion special treasury bond issuance next year

Highlights:

• China plans record special treasury bonds for 2025
• Funds to boost consumption, innovation, recapitalise state banks
• Beijing aims to soften economic blow from expected US tariffs

Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, two sources said, which would be the highest on record, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.

The plan for 2025 sovereign debt issuance would be a sharp increase from this year's 1 trillion yuan and comes as Beijing moves to soften the blow from an expected increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports when Donald Trump takes office in January.

The proceeds will be targeted at boosting consumption via subsidy programmes, equipment upgrades by businesses and funding investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors, among other initiatives, said the sources.

The sources, who have knowledge of the discussions, declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The State Council Information Office, which handles media queries on behalf of the government, the finance ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

China's 10-year and 30-year treasury yields rose 1 basis point (bp) and 2 bps, respectively, after the news.

The planned special treasury bond issuance next year would be the largest on record and underscores Beijing's willingness to go even deeper into debt to counter deflationary forces in the world's second-largest economy.

The issuance "exceeded market expectations," said Tommy Xie, head of Asia Macro research at OCBC Bank.

"Furthermore, as the central government is the only entity with meaningful capacity for additional leverage, any bond issuance at the central level is perceived as a positive development, likely providing incremental support for growth."

China does not generally include ultra-long special bonds in annual budget plans, as it sees the instruments as an extraordinary measure to raise proceeds for specific projects or policy goals as needed.

As part of next year's plan, about 1.3 trillion yuan to be raised through long-term special treasury bonds would fund "two major" and "two new" programmes, said the sources with knowledge of the matter.

The "new" initiatives consist of a subsidy programme for durable goods, allowing consumers to trade in old cars or appliances and buy new ones at a discount, and a separate one that subsidises large-scale equipment upgrades for businesses.

The "major" programmes refer to projects that implement national strategies, such as the construction of railways, airports and farmland and building security capacity in key areas, according to official documents.

The state planner NDRC said on 13 December Beijing had fully allocated all proceeds from this year's 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds, with about 70% of proceeds financing the "two major" projects and the remainder going towards the "two new" schemes.

TARIFFS THREAT
Another big portion of the planned proceeds for next year would be for investments in "new productive forces", Beijing's shorthand for advanced manufacturing, such as electric vehicles, robotics, semiconductors and green energy, the sources said.

One of the sources said more than 1 trillion yuan would be earmarked for that initiative. The rest would go to recapitalise large state banks, said the sources, as top lenders struggle with shrinking margins, faltering profits and rising bad loans.

The issuance of new special treasury debt next year would equate to 2.4% of 2023 gross domestic product (GDP). Beijing raised 1.55 trillion yuan via such bonds in 2007, or 5.7% of economic output at that time.

President Xi Jinping gathered with top officials for the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) on Dec. 11 and 12 to chart the economic course for 2025.

A state media summary of the meeting said it was "necessary to maintain steady economic growth", raise the fiscal deficit ratio and issue more government debt next year, but did not give specifics.

Last week Reuters reported, citing sources, that China plans to raise the budget deficit to a record 4% of GDP next year and maintain an economic growth target of bout 5%.

At the CEWC, Beijing sets targets for economic growth, the budget deficit, debt issuance and other areas in the year ahead.

Though usually agreed by top officials, such targets are not officially unveiled until an annual parliament meet in March and could still change before then.

China's economy has struggled this year due to a severe property crisis, high local government debt and weak consumer demand. Exports, one of the few bright spots, could soon face US tariffs in excess of 60% if Trump delivers on campaign pledges.

While the risks to exports mean China will need to rely on domestic sources of growth, consumers are feeling less wealthy due to falling property prices and minimal social welfare. Weak household demand also poses a key risk.

Last week, officials said Beijing plans to expand the consumer goods and industrial equipment trade-in programmes.

($1=7.2939 Chinese yuan)