Thailand's Shinawatra dynasty faces triple court test that could upend politics

Highlights:

• Suspended PM Paetongtarn under threat from court ruling
• Former PM Thaksin faces possible return to prison
• Coalition government shaky, holds slim majority
• Earlier election looks likely, analysts say

Thailand's billionaire Shinawatra family is bracing for a series of high-stakes court decisions starting Friday that could test its political resilience, with the prospect of an early election and prolonged trouble for the country's stuttering economy.

Thailand's Shinawatra political dynasty has been at the heart of two decades of intermittent turmoil and its latest battles will culminate in rulings that could unseat Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra for an alleged ethics violation and put her influential but polarising father Thaksin Shinawatra back in prison.

A court will on Friday rule if Thaksin during a 2015 media interview insulted the powerful monarchy, a serious crime in Thailand which carries lengthy jail terms of up to 50 years.

Another court will decide 18 days later if the tycoon's 2023 detention in a VIP hospital wing, instead of jail, means his prison sentence for abuse of power and conflicts of interest was not fully served.

Both Shinawatras have denied any wrongdoing.

Unfavourable verdicts for Paetongtarn, 39, and Thaksin, 76, a divisive backroom operator and driving force behind the government, could reduce the family's bargaining power and lead to an earlier-than-scheduled election, which their once formidable Pheu Thai party is not in the best shape to contest.

"A new election will definitely take place by mid-2026 or maybe sooner," said Thammasat University law professor Prinya Thaewanarumitkul.

"The chances of Pheu Thai regaining the popular vote in the next election are very unlikely."

A spokesperson for the Pheu Thai-led government declined to comment on the upcoming court rulings.

UNCERTAINTY LOOMS

The Shinawatra family are undoubtedly survivors having prevailed through two military coups and three court rulings that collectively toppled three of their governments and five prime ministers.

It is unclear how the courts will rule, with numerous permutations for what comes next in Thai politics.

The coalition government of Paetongtarn, who is suspended pending the Constitutional Court's August 29 ruling, is sinking in opinion polls, under intense public pressure and hanging onto power by a thread.

The verdicts come at a critical moment for Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which is struggling with weak growth, high household debt, slowing tourism and investor concern over policy continuity.

Paetongtarn is accused of violating ethics in a June telephone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen that was leaked as both countries were on the brink of an armed border conflict, which erupted a month later. A ceasefire is now in place.

Paetongtarn's predecessor Srettha Thavisin was dismissed by the same court a year ago and if she suffers the same fate, or resigns, parliament must choose a new premier from a shrinking list of candidates submitted before the 2023 election.

Her Pheu Thai party has only one candidate left, the low-profile former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri. But the 76-year-old would need help from Thaksin or Pheu Thai to rally support from a shaky coalition that holds a razor-thin majority.

Other candidates include former interior minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose party exited the governing coalition in June, and former premier and coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, who quit politics and is now a royal adviser.

The anti-establishment opposition People's Party, the largest in parliament, has signalled it may back Anutin if he agrees to dissolve parliament this year and seek constitutional reform.

Unfavourable court verdicts would make it harder for seasoned dealmaker Thaksin to keep Pheu Thai in government, but some analysts say he still has backing from a powerful conservative establishment that wants to keep the progressive opposition at bay.

"The conservative camp has chosen Thaksin," said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.

"Chaikasem would be picked as a short-term prime minister and dissolve parliament when the timing is right."