Nepal flood disaster exposes gaps in cross-border early-warning systems
By mid-September, more than 1,400 people were reported dead and at least 6,000 remained missing across Nepal and Tibet. The disaster destroyed 12 hydropower plants and buried or swept away homes, roads and bridges
A massive ice and rock avalanche in Nepal's Rasuwa district in late August sent water, mud and debris down the Lhende Khola River towards the Nepal-China border, highlighting weaknesses in disaster early-warning systems across the Himalayan region.
By mid-September, more than 1,400 people were reported dead and at least 6,000 remained missing across Nepal and Tibet. The disaster destroyed 12 hydropower plants and buried or swept away homes, roads and bridges, says Al Jazeera.
Experts say the scale and speed of such events expose limitations in warning systems that are often designed around individual hazards, such as rainfall or rising river levels, rather than sequences of events that can develop rapidly in high-altitude terrain.
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Limits of existing warning systems
Traditional early-warning systems generally focus on hazards that can be monitored through indicators such as rainfall totals or river levels. But Himalayan disasters can involve several stages, including ice-rock avalanches, landslides or seismic activity that blocks a river before a sudden release sends a surge downstream.
Communities below may have only minutes to respond once a high-altitude trigger occurs beyond their line of sight.
Saswata Sanyal, a disaster risk reduction specialist at ICIMOD, said below-normal seasonal rainfall should not be interpreted as meaning flood risks are lower, because localised cloudbursts can still produce destructive flash floods.
The risks are also not confined to Nepal. The Himalayas hold one of the world's largest concentrations of snow and ice outside the polar regions and feed major river systems on which hundreds of millions of people depend.
In Kashmir, glaciologist Irfan Rashid has warned that glacial lake outburst floods could threaten thousands of buildings, 15 major bridges, roads and hydropower facilities. Changes involving glaciers, seasonal snow and permafrost could also contribute to major water shortages across the Upper Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra basins by the end of the century.
In Sikkim, authorities identified 40 high-risk glacial lakes after the 2023 South Lhonak glacial lake outburst flood, which killed dozens of people. Sixteen of those lakes were placed in the highest-risk category for mitigation efforts.
In Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan, hundreds of glaciers and glacial lakes leave communities in mountain valleys exposed to sudden flooding and landslides.
Infrastructure under pressure
The risks are compounded by extensive development in narrow mountain valleys, where hydropower facilities, roads, border trade routes and tourism infrastructure have expanded.
Infrastructure designed to withstand conventional flooding can be overwhelmed when rivers carry large quantities of rock, mud and ice, experts say.
During the August disaster, at least 900 workers were trapped inside hydropower tunnels and facilities. Two workers were rescued alive after being trapped for nine days.
The incident underscored the exposure of critical infrastructure in valleys where there can be little time to evacuate workers or protect facilities once a high-altitude collapse occurs.
Need for cross-border warnings
The movement of rivers and floodwaters across national boundaries presents another challenge.
Early-warning networks and data-sharing arrangements remain fragmented by national borders, with political and security concerns affecting the flow of information between countries.
The August flooding damaged the Gyirong border crossing between Nepal and China, highlighting the importance of communication between authorities on both sides of the border.
Experts say disaster management systems need to move beyond preparations for individual hazards and towards anticipatory action that accounts for interconnected and rapidly developing events.
That includes real-time cross-border data sharing and the establishment of warning systems before disasters occur.
The problem is particularly acute in the Himalayas, where natural hazards do not follow political boundaries. Rivers can cross several countries, while the region is divided among states with different political systems, security priorities and information-sharing arrangements.
Experts say disaster-management operations remain largely organised along national lines, even though a high-altitude collapse originating in Nepal, Tibet, Kashmir, Sikkim or Pakistan can have consequences beyond the country where it begins.
For communities downstream, delays in transmitting information can be critical. Disasters can originate in remote terrain and reach populated areas within minutes, leaving little time for evacuation.
Across the region stretching from northeast India and Tibet through Nepal, Kashmir and Pakistan, climate-driven changes are adding pressure to already vulnerable high-altitude environments.
Experts say a central test of regional preparedness is whether information can move faster than the flood: "Who knew, how early did they know, and did the warning reach the people in time?"
