Asia's 2025 will be a year of upheaval and uncertainty

Highlights

• Trade wars and military expansion will define US-China relations under Trump, impacting the region
• Taiwan braces for intensified US-China tensions, with its future security in question
• Strengthened ties between North Korea and Russia pose new challenges for US policy in Asia

An impending trade war between the world's two superpowers, tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea, and a volatile North Korea are likely to dominate the Asian political agenda in 2025.

Much will depend on the region's relationship with US president-elect Donald Trump. During his first term, the America First policy he pursued isolated allies and antagonized Beijing and Pyongyang.

Here are five things that I'll be paying attention to in what is shaping up to be a tumultuous year in Asian politics:

Trump and Xi's bromance will define the future

Successfully rekindling the camaraderie between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart will determine how their strategic competition plays out under a second Trump administration. His threat of at least 60% tariffs on Chinese goods is never far from Beijing's mind. Bloomberg Economics estimates that those tariffs could ultimately cut 83% of China's exports to the US.

At a time of slowing growth, a property downturn and job losses, Xi will be keen to find ways to mitigate the risks of another trade war. The sooner a face-to-face meeting takes place, the better it will be for Beijing's efforts to try to cut a deal. Meanwhile, Washington will have its eyes on China's military expansion, which has continued to grow in size and ambition during the course of the year.

Taiwan will struggle to manage Trump

One thing Xi will not negotiate, though, is Taiwan. China claims the self-ruled island as its own, and says unification is inevitable. It is part of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation," and for Beijing that means emerging as the leading global power by 2049. For Taipei, this represents an existential crisis: Increasingly, the vast majority of young Taiwanese are veering toward a distinct identity away from the mainland.

Beijing views President Lai Ching-te's administration as separatist and any US support as crossing a key red line. Lai has been able to count on American defense assistance and some security assurances, as ambiguous as they may have been from President Joe Biden. Under Trump, though, nothing is guaranteed. Taiwan will have to arm itself further, but also play a deft diplomatic game.

Philippines and the US — an alliance in doubt

The Philippines should also prepare for a rocky 2025. With its heavy reliance on the US, Manila is particularly exposed. Will their ties remain solid, or will Beijing be able to drive a wedge? "With Trump it's truly transactional: he will be thinking 'what do I get out of this,'" Susannah Patton, Southeast Asia program director at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, told me. "That will determine whether Washington is compelled to respond if Manila needs help."

That scenario doesn't make it easy for Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to keep up his lonely fight against China in the South China Sea, one his navy been waging valiantly this year. Maintaining the pressure over Beijing's actions in the contested waterway will be crucial to ensure that freedom of navigation through the area remains intact.

North Korea and Russia will get closer

US foreign policy in 2025 will be dominated by the war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Gaza, the crisis in Syria, and a belligerent North Korea. The latter is likely to pose one of the biggest headaches in Asia for the new Washington administration. Leader Kim Jong Un has been vocal about expanding his nuclear weapons programme, and now has a willing partner in Moscow to help him achieve those goals.

In return, Kim sent North Korean soldiers to fight on behalf of Russia on the frontlines in Ukraine. That partnership is likely to get even stronger, as President Vladimir Putin looks to crush his opponents. He will need all the manpower he can get.

South Korea's political troubles are good for Beijing

The North's growing relationship with Russia comes at a time when a key US ally across the border is preoccupied with its own domestic political problems. South Korea's troubles are only beginning, with an election due in the next few months.

A possible change in leadership may result in an administration that is warmer to Beijing than the one under President Yoon Suk Yeol, which has typically leaned toward Washington.

With the exception of China, Asia has often been a neglected foreign policy priority for previous US administrations. Biden worked to renew Washington's presence in the region, and Trump should build on that — we've seen how unstable it can get when America is distracted.

Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.