US challenges Chinese control in race for African minerals

Highlights:

• US uses offtake deals to redirect African minerals from China
• KoBold cautious in Congo, contrasts with Chinese approach
• China's control of Congo assets faces test

The US is using offtake deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said ahead of this week's Indaba.

Washington's focus is on Zambia, Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supplies and produced some 3.3 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

Instead of placing US operators in high-risk countries, however, the US is leaning towards offtake and other trading structures such as one it has with Mercuria and arrangements it has with Congolese state miner Gécamines, to edge output into US-aligned value chains dominated by Chinese refiners.

Offtake is where a country or company secures rights to a share of a mine's output in exchange for financing or other support.

"We're already seeing US engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa," said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst with nonprofit NRGI, ahead of the event in South Africa.

"The US is putting money behind its rhetoric, but it remains to be seen whether it can compete with China's scale and speed," Scurfield added.

Both Washington and Beijing are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba mining event in Cape Town this week, with the US sounding out officials on its minerals bloc.

Central to the change, Gécamines is preparing to ship around 100,000 tons of its Tenke Fungurume copper allocation to US buyers this year after winning broader marketing rights in a 2023 renegotiation with China's CMOC.

Financial firepower rather than industrial presence

The US strategy stretches beyond copper.

Xiao Wenhao, analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said China's cobalt supply chain also faces risks as Congo's export restrictions collide with expanding US–DRC cooperation.

Elsewhere, London-based Pensana ditched plans to build a rare earth refinery in Britain to process feedstock from its mine in Angola, shifting the project to the United States, citing stronger US incentives and price guarantees.

"This is the US deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence," said Vincent Rouget, analyst at Control Risks. "With offtake and trading channels, Washington can redirect Congolese copper to American buyers without taking on the political or operational risks of running mines in the DRC."

Chinese firms still control many of Congo's biggest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have routed most output to China for refining for more than a decade.

Beyond copper and cobalt, Congo is emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium.

New offtake arrangements position Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and principal buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates, with the company recently recording its first export of locally processed germanium.

China versus the west

The contrast in capital deployment remains sharp.

KoBold Metals has staked more than 3,000 square kilometers in the lithium and copper belt, but will not advance projects which are entangled in disputes, stressing governance standards, its Congolese head Benjamin Katabuka told Reuters.

Chinese operators, by contrast, have proceeded on contested ground, reinforcing their speed‑to‑market advantage.

At Manono, one of the world's largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not move until ownership issues are resolved, even as Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block.

If it secures the southern block cleanly, KoBold says production could start within three years.

In Guinea, China‑backed Winning Consortium Simandou pushed ahead with rail and port construction at the giant Simandou despite ownership disputes, effectively forcing Rio Tinto to fall in line.