Why US and China compete for influence with Pacific island nations

Competition is heating up between China and the US in the southern Pacific, with each seeking to build influence among island nations that haven't received much superpower attention since World War II.

The stakes rose in 2022 when the Solomon Islands signed a security accord with Beijing — a first for the region — raising fears in Australia and New Zealand, both US allies, about a possible Chinese military base in the neighborhood. That has prompted a flurry of regional diplomacy and pledges of aid and cooperation in areas including climate change, as well as the appointment of new envoys and the opening of new embassies.

1. What countries are we talking about?

There are some 14 independent Pacific island nations located mostly around or below the equator. Only one, Papua New Guinea, has a population greater than 1 million. Apart from the Solomons, others include Vanuatu, Samoa and Kiribati. Their combined gross domestic product of roughly $36 billion is about that of the US state of Vermont. Some island countries describe their foreign policy as "friend to all, enemy to none," but they also have long-running ties to the US and its allies in the region, Australia and New Zealand. 

Map: Bloomberg

2. How is China reaching out, and why?

An increasingly assertive China has been paying more attention to the region as it tries to raise its profile on the world stage. Then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a rare, extended trip to the region in May 2022 that included a China-Pacific islands ministerial meeting in Fiji. In 2023 China appointed Qian Bo as its inaugural special envoy for the Pacific islands. As in other emerging markets, China has become one of the biggest national lenders to the Pacific states. According to Chinese government figures, its trade with the region — mostly seafood, wood and minerals — expanded to $5.3 billion in 2021, from just $153 million in 1992. The outreach is part of China's effort to build a network of developing countries to take its side in global forums such as the United Nations, where the US can usually count on the support of its European, East Asian and other allies. That also helps the Chinese government to isolate Taiwan, the democratically run island that China considers a renegade province. In 2019 Beijing scored a big win when the Solomon Islands and Kiribati switched their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

3. Why are Western countries worried?

They don't want to see such strategically placed islands drifting into China's orbit. One of the most important World War II battles was fought at Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands, part of a campaign by the US to halt Japan's southward advance. Then as now, any hostile military presence could threaten Australia's and New Zealand's trade routes. Parts of the US— Guam and Hawaii — could also be vulnerable. The area is part of Washington's "island chain" security concept, which sees them as part of defensive lines between Asia and the US. Wang had dismissed any criticism. "We must point out that South Pacific island countries are not a backyard of any country, still less a pawn for geopolitical rivalry," he said.

4. What happened with the Solomons?

Chinese diplomats had been wooing Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare for years with stronger economic ties. Still, when a draft security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands was leaked in March 2022, it appeared to catch Australia and the US off guard. Sogavare has insisted China won't be allowed to construct a military base, and accused Western critics of treating Solomon Islanders like children with guns. But the draft appeared to grant the Chinese navy a safe harbor. China said the agreement was signed a month later, but no final text was released. (In May 2022 China and the Solomon Islands committed to deeper economic ties.) A US Coast Guard vessel received no response when it sought to make a refueling stop in August that year, and soon after the Solomons announced a moratorium on foreign naval visits "pending updates in protocol procedures." In a speech at the UN, Sogavare said his country "will not be coerced into choosing sides." This year, China's President Xi Jinping promised to "strengthen mutual assistance" as the Solomon Islands opened its new embassy in Beijing.

5. How have the US and Australia responded?

There has been a burst of activity to try to repair strained relations, including the brief prospect in May 2023 of the first visit by a sitting US president to Papua New Guinea. President Joe Biden canceled the trip to deal with issues in Washington, while promising to find "other ways to engage" with Pacific island leaders. Last year Biden appointed Joseph Yun as special envoy for negotiations with Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands, a newly created post. He also had more than a dozen regional leaders to a first-ever White House summit, which produced an agreement that included commitments on global warming. Island leaders had bristled in the past when then-President Donald Trump and then-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison played down the effects of climate change, which is seen as an existential threat by the island nations because of rising sea levels. Biden and Morrison's successor, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, have made new commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The White House agreement also covered development and security issues and the promise of some new US embassies. A new one in the Solomons opened in February this year. Wang's earlier attempt to seal a similar Pacific nations deal in Fiji fell apart because of what some regional officials called Beijing's attempts to rush it through.