Why Japanese Prime Minister Kishida may call a snap election soon

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is thought increasingly likely to call a snap election, perhaps within days.

No election for the powerful lower house of parliament needs to be held until 2025, but Kishida is eager to solidify his grip on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to ensure his victory in a party leadership race in September 2024 and extend his time as premier.

HOW MIGHT IT HAPPEN?

Japan's prime ministers often say they are dissolving parliament to take a policy question to voters, though it can also be in response to a no-confidence motion brought by the opposition.

The major opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is considering such a motion before the current parliamentary session ends on 21 June, to oppose a bill aimed at securing funds to boost Japan's defence capabilities.

This could make it easier for Kishida to call a snap election because there are no pressing policy issues to rally voters.

HOW'S HIS POPULARITY?

Kishida's support surged after the 19-21 May Group of Seven (G7) leaders' summit in Hiroshima, his home district - with a boost from the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - and that strength is holding.

According to a recent poll by public broadcaster NHK, 43% of voters view him favourably compared with 46% right after the summit. In late 2022 his approval fell below 30%.

THE ECONOMY'S GOOD - FOR NOW

Japan's Nikkei stock average has roared to 33-year highs, powered by strong earnings and economic revival after the pandemic, with the economy expanding a stronger-than-expected 2.7% in the first quarter.

But worries about further price increases and the fate of the global economy loom large in the minds of senior LDP policymakers still scarred from a disastrous 2009 election, in the midst of the global financial crisis, which put the opposition in power for several years.

WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION?

Japan's opposition parties are fragmented and in disarray, and calling an election sooner could prevent the cooperative opposition alliances formed in many areas during last year's upper house election.

The LDP is worried about one group - the Japan Innovation Party - which, with its conservative bent, could siphon LDP votes after substantially increasing the number of seats it holds in April's local elections. Calling an election soon could shorten the preparation time and keep them on the back foot.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Kishida and the LDP could come under fire for calling the election because of the lack of pressing issues. Only 11% of voters thought an election should be held "promptly" and another 19% "within this year," according to the NHK poll.

Holding the election early could also backfire if any positive fades before the LDP leadership race more than a year from now.