Nepal's political shift puts India–Nepal ties in focus

The winds of political change continue to sweep India's South Asian neighbourhood. After recent upheavals in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Nepal has now witnessed a major electoral shift, with the Himalayan nation's latest elections delivering a decisive mandate for the four-year-old Rashtriya Swantantra Party (RSP) while sharply weakening established parties across the Left, Centre and Right.

The election outcome has positioned 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah, former mayor of Kathmandu, as Nepal's likely future prime minister.

Shah rode a wave of public discontent against traditional political forces, capitalising on violent Gen Z-led street protests last year. The RSP, founded by former television anchor Rabi Lamichhane in 2022, emerged as the primary beneficiary of the anti-establishment sentiment.

Following the election results, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to Nepal's new leadership, expressing readiness to work with the incoming government to strengthen the two countries' multifaceted ties.

Unlike veteran leaders such as K P Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), and Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba, Shah remains largely untested from India's perspective.

However, like several traditional Nepali leaders, Shah also has educational links with India. He completed a master's degree in structural engineering in Karnataka.

Nationalist tone raises questions

Shah's foreign policy approach remains unclear, though observers expect it to be influenced by a "Nepal First" nationalist outlook.

India has reasons to remain cautious. Last year, Shah criticised the United States, China and India in a Facebook post. In 2023, while serving as Kathmandu mayor, he shared a map on social media that depicted three Indian states — West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand — as part of a so-called "Greater Nepal". The post was later deleted after drawing a sharp rebuke from India's Ministry of External Affairs.

In November 2025, months before the elections, Shah triggered another diplomatic controversy by posting a message on Facebook containing abusive remarks about the US, India and China, along with criticism of nearly all major political parties in Nepal.

The post drew swift condemnation from political leaders and the public, with many describing it as "the height of irresponsibility" for a public official holding a high constitutional position.

Despite these incidents, the RSP has publicly stated that it seeks strong relations with both India and China while remaining independent of their direct influence.

Diplomatic caution from India

According to Prabhu Dayal, a retired Indian diplomat, "India may need to navigate a more nationalist and less predictable foreign policy from a younger leadership that is now going to be in power in Nepal."

He said Balendra Shah's "history of explosive opinions on social media has continued to be a focal point of debate regarding his suitability for national leadership. Balen Shah's nationalist stance on border disputes such as those involving Kalapani and Lipulekh presents a new diplomatic challenge for New Delhi."

For New Delhi, maintaining stability in Kathmandu remains important.

"A stable government in Kathmandu is crucial for securing its open border and advancing key infrastructure, trade, and energy cooperation projects," Dayal said.

He added that India's policy towards the new government "should focus on proactive engagement, supporting democratic stability and strengthening the traditional ties while navigating the changes resulting from emerging young leaders," while avoiding the impression of being a "big brother" that could fuel anti-India sentiment.

Focus on pragmatic engagement

Ranjit Rae, a former Indian ambassador to Nepal, noted that anti-India sentiment did not dominate the election campaign this time.

"it is after many years that India or anti-Indian nationalism was not an electoral issue, unlike in the past when CPN(UML) leader Oli sailed to victory on the back of anti-India rhetoric," Rae said.

He added that India "will be dealing with a new leadership that is more pragmatic and less ideological."

India–Nepal relations have experienced several ups and downs in recent years. The political turmoil in Nepal during 2025 and the 2026 general elections have once again brought bilateral ties under close scrutiny.

Both Rae and Dayal emphasised that India's approach should focus on development partnership and relations based on equity. The recent elections in Nepal were largely fought over bread-and-butter issues, corruption and allegations of nepotism during the rule of long-standing political parties.

For now, analysts say the key question is how the RSP and Balendra Shah will reconcile their anti-establishment rhetoric with the realities of governing within Nepal's entrenched democratic institutions.