Narrow win for BJP in Bengal, Mamata's 15-year reign to end: First exit poll prediction

Projections by People's Pulse paint a contrasting picture, giving the TMC alliance an edge with 177–187 seats, while the BJP is estimated to win 95–110 seats.

The battle for power in West Bengal appears to be a close one, with the exit polls showing a narrow win for the Bharatiya Janata Party in 294 assembly constituencies. To form the government, a party or alliance needs to cross the majority mark of 148 seats.

According to pollster Matrize, the TMC+ is projected to win 125–140 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 146–161 seats, indicating a closely fought race for the state's reins. Other parties are set to get 6–10 seats.

According to P-Marq, too, the BJP is projected to take the lead with 150–175 seats, while the TMC is estimated to secure 118–138 seats. Other parties are expected to win between 2 and 6 seats, indicating an advantage for the BJP in its projections.

However, projections by pollster People's Pulse paint a contrasting picture, giving the TMC alliance a decisive edge with 177–187 seats, while the BJP is estimated to win 95–110 seats.

If these projections translate into the final results on 4 May, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's 15-year rule in the state could come to an end.

Two-phase polling, mixed reports

Voting for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections was conducted in two phases — on 23 April and 29 April. The second and final phase covered 142 seats spread across seven districts.

While the first phase saw reports of violence and vandalism from parts of the state shortly after polling began, the final phase was described as largely peaceful, marking a calmer end to the electoral exercise.

Lessons from 2021: predictions vs reality

A look back at the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections shows how widely exit poll predictions can vary — and how they don't always match the final outcome.

CVoter had projected a comfortable win for the TMC with 158 seats, while estimating the BJP at 115. In contrast, the Republic-CNX poll gave the BJP an edge with 143 seats and placed the TMC at 133.

Axis My India pointed to an even tighter contest, suggesting the TMC could win between 130 and 156 seats, and the BJP between 134 and 160 — leaving open the possibility for either party to cross the 148-seat majority mark.

When the votes were eventually counted, the results told a very different story. The TMC swept the elections with 215 seats, while the BJP was limited to 77 constituencies.

What exit polls indicate

Exit polls are essentially estimates based on voter feedback collected immediately after ballots are cast. They aim to capture voting trends and offer an early sense of the possible outcome.

However, these projections are not definitive. The actual results will only be known once votes are counted on 4 May.