India election: How accurate were exit polls in 2014 and 2019?

Voting for India's 2024 Lok Sabha elections ended today with the conclusion of the seventh phase. Before the final results are announced, exit polls try to predict the outcome of the elections. 

The exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were being broadcast from 6:30pm today (1 June), 30 minutes after the polling ended.

The actual results for all 543 parliamentary seats will be announced by the Election Commission of India on 4 June. 

Here's a look at the exit polls projections and the actual results in Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.

Exit polls in 2014 vs Actual results

In 2014, most of the exit polls foresaw the BJP-led NDA coming to power but failed to accurately predict the landslide victory that followed, reports NDTV. 

Here's a breakdown of how accurate were the exit poll numbers.

Predictions on NDA

1.    India Today-Cicero: Predicted 272 seats for the NDA

2.    News 24-Chanakya: 340 seats

3.    CNN-IBN-CSDS: 280 seats 

4.    Times Now ORG: 249 seats 

5.    ABP News-Nielsen: 274 seats 

6.    NDTV-Hansa Research: 279 seats

Predictions on UPA

1.    India Today-Cicero: Predicted 115 seats for the UPA

2.    News 24-Chanakya: 101 seats

3.    CNN-IBN-CSDS: 97 seats 

4.    Times Now ORG: 148 seats

5.    ABP News-Nielsen: 97 seats

6.    NDTV-Hansa Research: 103 seats 

Actual results

NDA: 336 seats; BJP won 282 seats 

UPA: 60 seats; Congress won just 44 seats

Exit polls in 2019 vs Actual results

Predictions on NDA

1.    India Today-Axis: 339-365 seats

2.    News 24-Today's Chanakya: 350 seats 

3.    News18-IPSOS: 336 seats 

4.    Times Now VMR: 306 seats

5.    India TV-CNX: 300 seats

6.    Sudarshan News: 305 seats 

Predictions for UPA

1.    India Today-Axis: 77-108 seats

2.    News 24-Today's Chanakya: 95 seats 

3.    News18-IPSOS: 82 seats 

4.    Times Now VMR: 132 seats 

5.    India TV-CNX: 120 seats 

6.    Sudarshan News: 124 seats 

Actual results

NDA: Won 352 seats. BJP alone secured 303 seats.

UPA: Won 91 seats. Congress won 52 seats.

The Lok Sabha elections 2024 witnessed a direct fight between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. 

The ruling BJP seeks a third straight term under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has set an ambitious "400 paar" seat target for the NDA.