Research into weight-loss drugs tipped for Nobel as award week opens
Today's (5 October) medicine prize, to be announced at 3:30pm, could go to research that paved the way for weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, Nobel watchers told AFP.
Research into hormones that regulate appetite is on everybody's lips for the Nobel Prize in Medicine, to be announced today (5 October) as the 2026 Nobel season kicks off.
The winners of the six Nobel prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry, literature, peace and economics will be revealed daily from 5 October to 12 October.
Today's (5 October) medicine prize, to be announced at 3:30pm, could go to research that paved the way for weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, Nobel watchers told AFP.
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That could include microbiome research, the discovery of the hormones leptin and ghrelin, which regulate satiety and hunger, and research into a hormone released by the intestine after we eat that signals satiety, called glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), which drugs such as Ozempic mimic.
"A Nobel Prize recognising any of that work is a likelihood," said David Pendlebury, who heads research analysis at data analytics firm Clarivate, which predicts potential Nobel winners based on the number of citations of their work.
"I would put GLP-1 at the top of the list, just because of its enormous worldwide clinical impact," he said.
Many scientists have made significant contributions to the field, though three are regularly mentioned as potential Nobel laureates: Canadian endocrinologist Daniel Drucker, Danish physician Jens Juul Holst and Yugoslav-born American chemist Svetlana Mojsov.
Skin science or immunology?
If the Nobel committee were to go in another direction, stem cell research into how skin regenerates and heals wounds could get the nod, with American cell biologist Elaine Fuchs and her British colleague Fiona Watt recognised as leaders in the field, according to Annika Ostman, a science reporter at Swedish public broadcaster SR.
The honour could also go to a new imaging technique called optical coherence tomography.
The non-invasive technique uses reflected light to create high-resolution, cross-sectional images of biological tissues, particularly the retina and optic nerve, allowing doctors to detect and monitor disease.
Yet another field that may have caught the medicine committee's eye is adhesion receptors in the immune system, identified by US immunologist Timothy Springer.
These receptors are molecular grips on immune cells that help them stick to blood vessels, enter tissues and reach infections.
They are crucial for directing the body's immune defences and are targets for research into treatments for several inflammatory and autoimmune diseases.
Research into breast cancer or DNA sequencing that helped combat coronavirus could also be honoured.
The medicine prize will be followed by the prizes for physics on Tuesday and chemistry on Wednesday.
The literature laureate will be revealed on Thursday, with some pundits suggesting that the Swedish Academy could follow up last year's award to Hungary's Laszlo Krasznahorkai with a woman writer, possibly from Latin America.
Argentine author Samanta Schweblin, 48, could be one such pick, literary critic Lina Kalmteg told AFP.
Others often mentioned in Nobel speculation include Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, Chinese writer Can Xue, Australia's Gerald Murnane and Alexis Wright, US author Thomas Pynchon and Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza.
All eyes on peace
Perhaps the most keenly anticipated award is the peace prize, due on Friday. It is the only Nobel prize to be awarded in Oslo.
This year, some experts have suggested the jury could choose a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, after last year's winner, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, stirred controversy.
US President Donald Trump lobbied intensively last year to get the prize. Machado ended up giving him her Nobel medal, and the committee is aware that he will be watching closely again.
"There's always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee," the secretary of the Nobel committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP in an interview.
"We're very used to that."
Among the possible laureates this year are a joint prize for Save the Children and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children's rights activist campaigning for the return of Ukrainian children illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories.
Others include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), after 2025 was the deadliest year on record for the profession.
The economics prize will wrap up the Nobel season on 12 October.
