Putin offers Trump a convenient exit from Iran war dilemma - and he may accept it

Donald Trump has dismissed concerns that Russia may be sharing intelligence with Iran, while simultaneously offering Moscow the possibility of easing oil sanctions.

His recent actions have once again prompted critics to question the direction of US foreign policy and ask whose interests the US president is prioritising, reports Independent.

The latest development followed the first phone conversation this year between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Kremlin, the call was initiated from the Oval Office, suggesting Washington sought the discussion.

During remarks linked to global energy markets, Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran might soon end. He said he believed the war could conclude quickly and described the situation as "very complete".

However, within hours, he appeared to reverse his tone, stating the fighting would continue because "we haven't won enough".

His "secretary of war", Pete Hegseth, later attempted to clarify the administration's position. He said the United States and Israel were preparing for their most intense strikes yet and warned that Iran would face catastrophic consequences if it tried to restrict oil shipments from the Gulf.

Speaking at a press conference, Trump outlined a possible approach to reduce rising oil prices triggered by the conflict.

"We're waiving certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices. So we have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out," Trump said.

Although he did not name the countries involved, observers believe he was most likely referring to Russia, whose oil exports continue to reach major buyers such as India and China.

"Then who knows, maybe we won't have to put them on; there'll be so much peace..." he added.

Analysts warn that easing oil sanctions would not lead to peace in Ukraine. Russia currently earns more than $100 billion annually through oil exports that often bypass Western restrictions. Allowing Moscow to fully restore its export capacity could significantly strengthen its war finances.

Trump halted all US military assistance to Ukraine a year ago. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East has further weakened Ukraine's position.

Kyiv is also increasingly exposed to Russian missile strikes because key air defence systems such as Patriot and Thaad are now being deployed in the Middle East. These systems had previously been used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles targeting Ukrainian cities.

If Russia regains unrestricted oil exports, it could gain an additional $50 billion in revenue. Such funds would likely reinforce the Kremlin's military campaign at a time when Ukrainian forces have begun to show signs of regaining some initiative on the battlefield.

Trump's suggestion of easing sanctions has raised further concerns because he previously brushed aside Western intelligence reports claiming that Russian operatives were providing targeting information to Iran.

Those intelligence assessments suggest the information may have assisted Tehran in carrying out attacks against US bases in the Gulf region. At least six US servicemen have been killed in such strikes.

Meanwhile, the US-Israeli campaign against Iran's regime has pushed global crude prices close to $120 per barrel, driving up fuel costs for American consumers. Trump's earlier statement that the war could soon end briefly helped calm markets, and any relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil could push prices down further.

Lower fuel prices would likely ease political pressure on the president at home. Some of his Maga (Make America Great Again) supporters have been unsettled by his decision to launch air strikes on Iran, particularly given his earlier pledges to reduce US involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts.

So there is a clear indication here that Trump is aware of the local political problems he faces and hopes to buy them off by loosening the geostrategic controls the US has imposed on Russia's oil production by bringing down fuel prices at home.

But he does not need to help Russia to help himself.

He has boasted that Iran cannot indefinitely strangle Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil reserves outside of Russia are more than enough to meet global demands, even with a temporary loss of movement through the Arabian Gulf.

The White House is trying to find ways to help Russia, an ally of Iran that has supplied technology used in Tehran's missile attacks on US bases and allied installations.

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States could free more Russian oil from sanctions. Russia's special presidential envoy on investment, Kirill Dmitriev, said on Saturday he was discussing the issue with Washington.

Dmitriev, the Kremlin's point man in talks with Trump's "peace" envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, has enjoyed access to the highest echelons of the Trump administration and discussed numerous business opportunities for America involving $12-14 trillion.

That is the equivalent of six times Russia's total annual economic output. This fantasy figure amid oil and gas, minerals, and all manner of economic opportunities for US firms, some of which are strongly linked to the Trump family, has been part of Dmitriev's pitch to Witkoff. The two men have met at least nine times since last April – frequently in Florida.

This astronomical "peace dividend" would be available to the US only in the event of a deal that ended the war in Ukraine.

Lifting sanctions on Russia might, the Kremlin may believe, speed up the process of Ukrainian capitulation to Russian demands, endorsed by Witkoff and Trump, that Ukraine give up its established defensive lines across the east of the country as part of a long-term deal.

Oleksandr Morezkho, chair of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, said: "If Trump sincerely wants to bring peace to Ukraine, the only way to do it is by depriving Russia of its oil revenues, because those revenues feed the Russian war machine.

"If Trump lifts oil sanctions in any way, it will only provide a lifeline to the Russian war machine and, at the end of the day, will translate into more civilian casualties in Ukraine."

This comes at a time when Ukraine is diverting some of its own defensive drones to the Gulf to help protect the US and its allies from incoming Iranian attacks.

That is an irony that Trump has chosen to ignore as he continues to favour Russia over Ukraine, his allies, his own troops, but not big business.