Lebanon heads to historic Israel talks with few hopes except to staunch bloodshed
Armed group Hezbollah, which is locked in clashes with invading Israeli troops in south Lebanon, is opposed to direct negotiations - throwing into question whether it would abide by any ceasefire agreed by the state.
Summary
- Lebanese and Israeli officials expected to hold talks next week
- Israel wants Hezbollah disarmed as part of any peace agreement
- Lebanon fears civil strife if army moves to confront Hezbollah
- Shi'ite militia unlikely to comply while Israeli forces remain
- Lebanese have little faith in government after series of crises
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun has called for historic direct talks with longtime foe Israel since war erupted a month ago - a month in which Israel's military has forced more than a million Lebanese to flee, levelled parts of Beirut and triggered sectarian friction.
Now that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally answered the call to talk peace, Lebanon is in its weakest position to deliver it, experts said.
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Armed group Hezbollah, which is locked in clashes with invading Israeli troops in south Lebanon, is opposed to direct negotiations - throwing into question whether it would abide by any ceasefire agreed by the state.
"The talks that will take place between Lebanon and Israel are frankly pointless, because those conducting them in the name of Lebanon have no leverage to negotiate," a Lebanese official close to the group told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
More than 300 killed in day of strikes
Israel intensified air attacks on Lebanon after Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel on March 2, three days into the US-Israeli war on Iran. It has since widened a ground offensive.
Shi'ite Muslims, the community from which Hezbollah draws its support and which has borne the brunt of Israel's strikes, have told Reuters they have little faith in a state they see as failing to defend them.
Netanyahu's instructions to his cabinet to prepare for direct talks came a day after Israeli strikes across Lebanon killed more than 300 people, one of the bloodiest days for Lebanon since its civil war ended in 1990. Rescuers were still pulling mangled bodies out of the wreckage of pulverized buildings on Friday as families held funerals across Lebanon.
Israeli bombardment has destroyed public infrastructure across southern Lebanon and killed several Lebanese state security forces on Friday.
"Israel's brutality does not distinguish between one civilian and another, nor between Muslim and Christian, in this country. We must all stand together to confront this barbarity and this aggression," said Hassan Saleh, a Lebanese man attending a funeral in the southern city of Tyre.
State's standing deteriorates
Many Lebanese, including two officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said they saw Netanyahu's belated acceptance of talks as a fig leaf, aimed at generating goodwill in Washington as the US begins talks with Iran this weekend, while ultimately keeping the war in Lebanon going.
"Just because Israel agreed to negotiate with us doesn't mean it's going to be easy. The problem is that we don't have any other option," said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Lebanon's Annahar newspaper.
Lebanon's state has historically been weak, hamstrung by corruption, a sectarian powersharing system that is frequently deadlocked and cycles of internal fighting and wars between Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanese have repeated the refrain of "there is no state" for decades, but recent crises have degraded the government's standing even further.
Lebanon's financial system collapsed in 2019 and a 2020 chemical explosion at the Beirut port killed more than 200 people. No one has been held to account for either.
In September 2024, an Arab Barometer survey found that 76% of Lebanese had no trust at all in their government.
The following month, Israel sent troops into Lebanon and escalated its bombing campaign after a year of exchanging fire with Hezbollah. More than 3,700 people were killed in Lebanon.
A house divided
Even after a US-brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Israel kept troops in Lebanon and continued its strikes against what it said was Hezbollah infrastructure. Those who returned to demolished southern Lebanese towns spent their own savings to rebuild their houses without state help.
Thousands more who could not return home said their own government was at fault for failing to secure Israel's withdrawal through diplomacy.
The US and Israel, meanwhile, blamed the Lebanese state and army for failing to fulfil a promise under the 2024 ceasefire deal to fully strip Hezbollah of its arsenal.
Lebanese officials said disarming Hezbollah by force would trigger civil strife and talks to convince the group to abandon its weapons were failing as Israel still occupied Lebanese land.
After Hezbollah entered the regional war on 2 March, Lebanon outlawed its military activities. But the army did not stop the group's missile launches, with officials again citing the risk of internal conflict.
Netanyahu has said talks would focus on Hezbollah's disarmament and a historic peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, who have technically been at war since Israel's founding in 1948.
But both are hard to imagine after such a deadly week.
Lebanon was heading into talks as a house divided, said Michael Young of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Center.
Disarming Hezbollah "means entering into a confrontation with the entire Shi'ite community, which will not accept Hezbollah's disarmament because they feel they are surrounded by enemies", he said.
"We're weak because we're unclear on the terms of reference of negotiations, divided over the question of negotiations, because our demands will be rejected and because we cannot do what we need to do to secure an Israeli withdrawal."
