India’s diplomacy under scrutiny as Pakistan takes centre stage in Middle East war

Pakistan's role as a mediator between the United States and Iran, two of the three principal rivals in the Middle East war, has prompted India's main opposition Congress to take a jibe at India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A day after reports emerged about the ceasefire between the US and Iran and that Islamabad would host talks between the two warring sides, Congress Chief Spokesperson Jairam Ramesh on Tuesday (7 April) alleged in a social media post that Pakistan's emergence as a peace broker in the Middle East war was the "failure" of Modi's "personalised diplomacy", which "stands thoroughly exposed".

By welcoming the ceasefire between the US and Iran, India, in its first formal statement, showed maturity as a global power and did not allow itself to be distracted by the domestic opposition into a war of words, ignoring the larger picture of peace and regional stability.

Responding to the opposition's suggestions that Pakistan has scored diplomatically by playing the role of mediator, Jaishankar was quoted as having pointed out at the all-party meeting last month that India is not a "dalal" nation and that Pakistan is an old hand at working its way into conflicts.

The next day, the "dalal nation" remark hit the headlines.

Jaishankar also reportedly recalled at the meeting that Pakistan was instrumental in the rapprochement between China and the US in 1971, when Washington, under president Richard Nixon and secretary of State Henry Kissinger, threw its lot in with Islamabad during the Bangladesh Liberation War.

Pakistan also played the role of intermediary when relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia came under strain in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Historically, Pakistan served as a US base to train and arm Afghan mujahideen fighting Soviet troops in the 1980s and was also part of the Cold War military alliances Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO).

It is Pakistan's geographical position as a frontline country that the US found to be a strategic asset for use against the Soviet army's presence in Afghanistan by arming and training the Afghan mujahideen.

In the past, Pakistan has remained closely aligned with US strategic interests. However, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reduced Islamabad's importance to Washington.

Pakistan shares a 900km border with Iran, so any instability there directly affects its security and economy. With nearly 40 million Shias — the largest population outside Iran — Pakistan also has cultural and sectarian links with Tehran.

Analysts say Pakistan may once again see value in renewed US involvement in Afghanistan, especially after recent tensions across the Durand Line and improving ties between Kabul and New Delhi.

How India became the broker for US and Iran

Pakistan's renewed role in US strategic thinking marks a major shift. During his first term, Donald Trump had sharply criticised Pakistan for offering "lies and deceit" despite years of US support.

But according to The Wall Street Journal, that view has partly changed as Pakistan aligned itself with Washington's current priorities.

The Wall Street Journal says a key reason for Pakistan's mediation role is its success in reaching Trump's inner circle.

The newspaper reported that Pakistan army chief Asim Munir played an important role by directly engaging with people close to Trump and building personal ties.

These ties were not only political but also business-related. One example was a stablecoin deal involving a firm linked to Steve Witkoff's family and the Pakistani government.

Pakistan also arranged high-level meetings in Islamabad for Trump-linked figures, giving them full state-style treatment, according to WSJ.

The view in New Delhi is that Pakistan used its White House access since the crypto deals in April to enter Trump's inner circle.

Pakistan also benefited from the lack of direct communication between the US and Iran.

Trump himself has spoken favourably about Munir, calling him a "tough man" and a "serious fighter". Such public remarks indicate a level of personal rapport that Pakistan appears to have carefully cultivated as part of its broader diplomatic strategy, according to WSJ.

Political observers say Islamabad also made symbolic gestures that resonated with Trump. Among them was nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his role in easing tensions between India and Pakistan in May last year, a claim disputed by New Delhi.

Senior Indian opposition politician Shashi Tharoor, in an article published today in The Indian Express, said, "Celebrating a neighbour's successful mediation does not diminish India's standing. To sneer at it would signal to the world that India's foreign policy is driven by spite rather than by substance."

Tharoor said, "India must watch the Pakistani initiative with the keen eye of an interested neighbour. There is no strategic benefit in rooting for the failure of a peace process."

According to the former UN under-secretary-general Kofi Annan, "Even if Pakistan's mediation is a 'diplomatic fig leaf rather than the real initiator', India must navigate this development with a combination of strategic restraint and regional responsibility.

Manoj K Channan, a former army officer and defence analyst, wrote in an article in The Indian Express that "Pakistan, with its deep ties to Tehran and its position as a Sunni counterweight to Shia Iran, positioned itself as the honest broker. While superpowers postured, Rawalpindi's diplomats quietly shuttled, leveraging backchannels honed over decades of Afghan mediation."

"In a masterclass of statesmanship, Islamabad dragged the US and Iran to the negotiating table, birthing a 10-point peace plan that POTUS has now endorsed. This isn't altruism; it's realpolitik at its finest," Channan said.

There is concern in New Delhi that Pakistan, which India has tried to isolate diplomatically over the issue of cross-border terrorism, has found a prominent space in international diplomatic power corridors by mediating between the US and Iran.

"If US-Iran talks proceed and there is progress down that very tricky road, involving our allies, it will be hard for India to isolate and paint Pakistan as the villain, given our energy needs and our dependence on the region," the newspaper quoted a former diplomat who has served in the Gulf as saying.

Apparently not willing to be squeezed out of the picture, India has sent Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Washington, and Jaishankar himself will travel to the UAE on 11-12 April.