How climate change is pushing up chocolate prices across the world

Easter eggs are becoming increasingly expensive this year. While there are several factors behind the rise, one of the primary reasons is fall in cocoa production in West Africa owing to the impacts of climate change.

Most chocolate is made from cocoa grown in West Africa, but a humid heat wave has blasted the crops and massively cut yields, reports BBC. The Cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate.

Some popular easter eggs have risen in price by 50% or more owing to a shortage of cocoa, resulting from heat waves that have seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (£6,700) a tonne this week, the BBC report states.

Citing experts, the British media outlet reported that human-induced climate change has made the extreme heat 10 times more likely.

According to a report published by The Economist, the price of cocoa began creeping up in the second half of 2022. Since then it has doubled, reaching an all-time high in January 2024.

"Cocoa is mostly produced by small farmers in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast grow about 60% of the world's crop. Last season the El Niño weather pattern led to unseasonably high temperatures and rainfall that ravaged crops. Total rainfall in Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing areas in 2023 was the highest in 20 years, according to Gro Intelligence, a data firm," wrote Economist.

BBC reports, in 2023, 58m kilogrammes of cocoa beans worth £127m were imported to the UK from Ivory Coast and Ghana with 85% of the UK's cocoa beans sourced from Ivory Coast.

However, severe drought conditions have hit the West Africa region since February this year.

This has been caused by temperatures that soared above 40C, breaking records in countries including the Ivory Coast and Ghana.

It was these exceptionally high temperatures that the World Weather Attribution group, based at Imperial College London, found were made 10 times more likely by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Citing the study, BBC wrote that unless the world quickly reduces fossil fuel use, West Africa will experience similar heatwaves about every two years.

"There were reports from farmers in Ivory Coast that the heat weakened the cocoa crop," according to one of the authors of the study, Izadine Pinto, from the University of Cape Town.

He said the high temperatures increased the rate of evaporation, leaving the crops without sufficient moisture.

Another factor impacting the crops was El Niño.

This is a recurring, natural fluctuation in weather patterns in the tropical Pacific that drives up global temperatures and can lead to extreme weather in some places. A strong El Niño has been active since last June.

According to The Economist, this year El Niño has brought severe drought to the cocoa farms, reducing production further. ING, a bank, estimates that this year the gap between global production and consumption will be at its widest since at least 2014. Extreme weather patterns have hit other commodities, too. Droughts in Thailand and India are affecting rice plantations. Torrential rain in Brazil, the world's biggest sugar exporter, has affected its exports .

El Niño years often present challenges for farmers, but global warming is exacerbating those changes, reports BBC, citing Ben Clarke, an expert on extreme weather at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College.

Chocolate makers typically buy beans months ahead of time but soaring prices are now beginning to affect prices in the shops.

"Lots of players who have already announced price increases. We are also part of that group," Martin Hug, of chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli told city analysts earlier this month.

In February, Mondelez, the company that owns the Cadbury brand, and the American chocolate maker Hershey were already warning rising cocoa prices could drive up the price of chocolate.