Big tech, oil extend Wall Street's mid-summer rebound
US stocks extended their mid-summer rebound on Friday, with the dollar and some longer-term Treasury yields dipping, as Wall Street cheered positive corporate news in spite of increased labour costs and other indicators of continued inflation.
Positive forecasts from Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc showed resilience in giant companies to survive an economic downturn, while energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp posted record revenue on Friday, bolstered by surging crude oil and natural gas prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 1%, the S&P 500 gained about 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite added nearly 2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now posted their biggest monthly percentage gains since 2020.
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Still, US labour costs increased strongly in the second quarter as a tight jobs market continued to boost wage growth, which could keep inflation elevated.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, also rose 1.1% last month, the US Commerce Department said on Friday.
As inflation surges across major markets and central bankers scramble to raise rates without killing off growth, riskier markets like stocks have tended to react positively to any perceived softening in sentiment on the part of policymakers.
After Thursday data showed the US economy contracted in the second quarter, stocks rose as traders bet rates would rise more slowly. Euro zone numbers on Friday, meanwhile, beat expectations, yet recession fears are mounting as energy inflation continues to bite in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"Our view is that earnings for all equity classes likely will peak in 2022 and move lower as the economy weakens, revenue growth stalls and input costs remain elevated," strategists with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note on Thursday.
The MSCI World index gained about 1.2%, on course for its best month since November 2020, buoyed by broad gains across European markets, with the STOXX Europe 600 up around 1.3%.
Despite the positive end to the month for stocks, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors should proceed with caution, noting: "In the near term, we think the risk-reward for broad equity indexes will be muted. Equities are pricing in a 'soft landing,' yet the risk of a deeper 'slump' in economic activity is elevated."
Treasury yields at the long end drifted lower on Friday after data on labour costs and wage growth suggested inflation remains sticky and raised fears of a recession as the Federal Reserve seeks to cool the economy without sparking a sharp slowdown.
The yield on benchmark 10-year notes dipped to 2.66%, from 2.681% late on Thursday, while the 2-year note yield edged up to 2.89%, from 2.87%.
The US dollar rebounded from a three-week low in choppy trading on Friday, as the round of US economic data suggested more inflation and higher interest rates. The dollar was last down about 0.3% against a basket of its major peers - still on course for a second month of gains.
Futures markets now predict that US interest rates will peak by December this year, rather than June 2023, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by nearly 50 bps next year to support slowing growth.
"Strong hiring and falling GDP mean an unsustainable collapse in productivity. The labour market should slow quickly, soon," Bank of America economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave wrote in a note on Friday. "The Fed is likely to respond slowly to a recession. We think market optimism about a dovish Fed pivot is premature."
Across commodities, Brent crude futures rose about 2.6%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude extended early gains, up 1.8%, as concerns about supply shortages ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers offset doubts around the economic outlook.
Spot gold gained around 0.4% to $1,762.5 an ounce, a more than three-week high, supported by a softer dollar and bets that the Federal Reserve may cool the pace of rate hikes as economic risks deepen.
