Frustration, Gaza alarm drove Macron to go it alone on Palestine recognition

President Emmanuel Macron's announcement that France would become the first Western member of the United Nations Security Council to recognise a Palestinian state in September has caused diplomatic ructions from the Middle East through Europe to Washington.

But it did not come out of the blue.

When Macron visited the Egyptian town of Al-Arish on the border with Gaza in April, he was struck by the mounting humanitarian crisis and made clear on his return home that Paris would soon opt for recognition.

Working with Saudi Arabia, Macron came up with a plan to have France plus G7 allies Britain and Canada recognise Palestinian statehood, while pushing Arab states to adopt a softer stance towards Israel through a United Nations conference. But despite weeks of talks he failed to get others on board.

Three diplomats said London did not want to face the wrath of the United States, and Ottawa took a similar stance, leaving Macron to go it alone.

"It became increasingly apparent that we could not wait to get partners on board," said a French diplomat, adding France will work to get more states on board ahead of conference on a two-state solution in September.

Domestically Macron was under rising pressure to do something amid widespread anger at the harrowing images coming out of Gaza. Although with both Europe's biggest Muslim and Jewish communities and a polarised political landscape, there was no obvious course of action that would satisfy all sides.

Israel and its staunch supporter the United States have blasted France's move, branding it a reward for the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which ran Gaza and whose attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 triggered the current war.

Macron had discussed the matter extensively with both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in advance.

Trump said on Friday that France's decision didn't "carry any weight" but added Macron was "a good guy".

Conference plan

French officials previously considered an announcement at a conference scheduled for June at the United Nations, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, to sketch out a roadmap to a viable Palestinian state while also ensuring Israel's security.

But the conference was postponed amid intense US diplomatic pressure and after Israeli air strikes on Iran.

Macron's announcement on Thursday is linked to a rescheduled and rejigged version of the UN conference, now planned to take place Monday and Tuesday.

That meeting will be at ministerial level, but Paris decided it would hold a second event with heads of state and government on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September, where Macron will announce formal recognition.

Some analysts say Macron has used the carrot of recognition to extract concessions from Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority which is a moderate rival to Hamas, and other regional players.

"Macron here is acting as a catalyst to get the Palestinians to deliver on the needed reforms, to get the Arabs to deliver on a stabilization force and the disarming of Hamas," said Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog run by the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Others say while recognition has symbolic value, there will still be no functioning Palestinian state whenever the war in Gaza comes to an end.

"Recognition by a European heavyweight like France is indicative of the rising frustration with Israel's intransigent policies," said Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst at International Crisis Group.

"What's the point of recognising a state if they're doing little to stop it from turning into ruins?"

French officials point to months of intense Israeli lobbying to try to prevent Macron's move - and Netanyahu's fierce criticism of it - as evidence that it matters a lot to Israeli leaders.

Sources familiar with the matter say Israel's warnings to France had ranged from scaling back intelligence-sharing to complicating Paris' regional initiatives - even hinting at possible annexation of parts of the West Bank.

But French officials concluded that Netanyahu would do whatever he thought was in his interests in the West Bank anyway, regardless of what France did on recognition.

Israel's parliament voted on Wednesday in favour of a non-binding declaration urging the government to apply Israeli law to the West Bank, widely seen as a de facto annexation of the territory. That added to the urgency in Paris.

"If there is a moment in history to recognise a Palestinian state, even if it's just symbolic, then I would say that moment has probably come," said a senior French official.