Can Ukraine's grain deal ease the global food crisis?

A deal to free-up vital grain exports from Ukraine expires on 19 Nov and intense negotiations over the next few days will determine whether it is extended and possibly even expanded to help ease concerns about global food security.

The agreement, reached in July, created a protected sea transit corridor and was designed to alleviate global foodshortages by allowing exports to resume from three ports in Ukraine, a major producer of grains and oilseeds.

Here are some of the issues:

What has been exported?

The pact created a safe shipping channel for exports fromthree ports in Ukraine.

So far, some 10.1 million tonnes of agricultural productshave been shipped, including 4.3 million tonnes of corn.

Shipments of wheat have reached 2.9 million tonnes, or 28% of the total. Other commodities shipped include rapeseed, sunflower oil, sunflower meal and barley.

How might the agreement change?

Ukraine wants the agreement expanded to include more ports.

The three ports involved in the deal - Odesa, Chornomorskand Pivdennyi - have the combined capacity to ship around threemillion tonnes a month.

Ukraine wants the agreement to include the ports of the southern Mykolaiv region, which provided 35% of Ukrainian food exports before Russia's invasion.

Mykolaiv was Ukraine's second-largest grain terminal according to 2021 shipment data so its addition would allow for a much larger volume of grains and oilseeds to be shipped.

Ukraine is also seeking a one-year extension of the deal and a streamlined inspection regime.

Russia has said its consent to extend the Black Sea grain deal depends on support for its own grain and fertiliser exports. Russia is a major agricultural producer and the world's largest exporter of wheat.

Moscow has not detailed its demands publicly but is believed to want the West to ease restrictions on state agriculture lender Rosselkhozbank, a move that should help facilitate more Russian exports.

Has it alleviated the food crisis?

A drop in shipments from major exporter Ukraine has played a role in this year's global food price crisis, but there are also other important drivers.

These include the Covid-19 pandemic and the climate shocks which continue to challenge agricultural production, mostly recently droughts in both Argentina and the United States.

The corridor has led to a partial recovery in shipments from Ukraine but they remain well below pre-invasion levels and will not fully recover for the foreseeable future.

Transporting grains to ports there remains challenging and expensive, while Ukrainian farmers have reduced sowings of crops such as wheat after in many cases selling last year's crops at a loss, with domestic prices remaining very low.

Has it driven down global wheat prices?

Prices of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade rosesharply in the aftermath of Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine but are now around pre-conflict levels.

Ukraine's ability to export millions of tonnes of wheat through the corridor has been one element driving down prices.

Other factors include a record crop in major exporter Russia this year, the gloomy global economic outlook and a strong dollar.

But prices for wheat-based food staples such as bread andnoodles remain well above pre-invasion levels in many developing countries despite the decline in Chicago futures, due to weak local currencies and higher energy prices which have raised costs such as transport and packaging.

What about sea mines?

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of planting the manynaval mines that now float around the Black Sea. These pose asignificant threat and were cited as the one thing feared by a crew member on the Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni, the first ship to pass through the corridor on 1 Aug.

The mines have drifted far from Ukraine's shores, withRomanian, Bulgarian and Turkish military diving teams defusingsome that have ended up in their waters.

It could take months to clear them and there was not enoughtime to do so before the grains pact came into effect.

What about insurance?

The Istanbul based Joint Coordination Centre, which overseesthe deal and is made up of Turkish, Russian, Ukrainian and U.N.officials, in August published procedures on theshipping channel, which aims to alleviate concerns of insurersand shipowners.

Insurers initially said they were willing to provide cover if there were arrangements for international navy escortsand a clear strategy to deal with sea mines.

Since then, they have created clauses for providing cover, including provisos that ships need to stay inside the corridor when transiting or risk invalidating their policies.

Following the 2 July agreement, Lloyd's of London insurer Ascot and broker Marsh set up a marine cargo and war insurance facility for grain and food products moving out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports with $50 million cover per voyage.

The cost of overall insurance for ships sailing into Ukrainian ports - which includes separate segments of cover - is nevertheless likely to remain steep.

What about crews?

In September, Ukraine implemented a decree allowing itsseafarers to leave the country despite wartime restrictions, amove aimed at freeing up vital manpower for both Ukrainian grainexports and the wider global shipping industry.

At the start of the conflict there were around 2,000seafarers from all over the world stranded in Ukrainian ports. The International Chamber of Shipping association estimated that figure had fallen to some 346 mariners as of 27 Oct.