Asean outreach may give Myanmar leaders legitimacy without results

Asean's re-engagement with Myanmar runs the risk of providing legitimacy to the military-led government and ​undermining the regional group's own plan to end violence in the war-torn country, analysts said.

Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met Myanmar's ‌top diplomat at an informal gathering in Bangkok on Sunday, the first such in-person meeting since the military's 2021 coup and subsequent conflict led to the junta being barred from the bloc's summits.

Officials described Sunday's meeting as an opportunity for Myanmar to brief its neighbours on conditions inside the country, but Richard Horsey, senior Asia adviser at Crisis Group, said the risk was that the meeting was a step in normalising political engagement ​before any change had been achieved.

"It would be a mistake for Asean to accept Myanmar back into the fold without getting anything meaningful in return," he said.

The ​meeting marks a test of whether Asean will hold the line on its own peace framework or allow Myanmar's military-backed leaders to regain ⁠regional standing without meaningful steps toward ending the conflict, such as releasing political prisoners including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi or restoring full democracy.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since Aung ​San Suu Kyi's elected government was ousted in a February 2021 coup. The junta's response to nationwide protests then fuelled an armed uprising that has become a prolonged civil war.

Asean agreed ​on a "Five-Point Consensus" in April 2021 that called for an end to the violence, dialogue among all parties, humanitarian assistance and the appointment of a special envoy.

But the junta did not implement the plan, prompting ASEAN to bar it from its top-level meetings and invite only non-political representatives from Myanmar.

The military-dominated parliament, which has succeeded the junta, approved a motion last week urging Myanmar's new government to counter Asean's Five-Point Consensus, ​calling it interference in the country's internal affairs, the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported.

Opposition groups, including the National Unity Government, which is in exile, and powerful ethnic armed ​groups such as Karen National Union, released a joint statement on Saturday voicing their concerns about the informal meeting of foreign ministers, calling for Asean to engage with all principal democratic political stakeholders in ‌the country.

So ⁠far, an estimated 100,000 people have been killed in the conflict, more than 3.6 million people have been displaced, and the economy has been severely weakened.

Aung San Suu Kyi is under house arrest with her whereabouts unknown, while many senior members of her party and other junta opponents have been jailed or barred from politics.

Asean may be losing leverage

Asean may be conceding too much to Naypyitaw, and losing any leverage it has in negotiations, analysts said.

"The central question is whether the organization will uphold its own agreed framework or permit re-engagement with the military regime ​without requiring meaningful implementation of the Five-Point Consensus," ​said Ye Myo Hein, a senior ⁠fellow at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute.

Thailand's Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said that Sunday's talks did not mean Asean was abandoning its existing position.

"This process of engagement does not mean any change in our basic position as reflected in the Five-Point Consensus, but it does mean achieving ​towards engagement, listening, and being realistic about what can be achieved," he said.

The BBC Burmese service has reported that Sihasak planned to ​hold separate informal meetings ⁠with some ethnic armed organizations and the National Unity Government. There has not yet been any confirmation of such talks from officials or the opposition groups.

The signs of rapprochement come some six months after a phased election run by the junta that critics and Western governments dismissed as a sham designed to preserve military rule under a civilian veneer.

That process culminated in April, when a pro-military parliament ⁠elected former ​junta chief Min Aung Hlaing as president, formalising the power he had held since the coup.

Analysts said any premature ​re-engagement would weaken Asean's ability to implement its peace plan and influence the Myanmar government.

"Once the regime secures the regional legitimacy it seeks without meeting any meaningful conditions, Asean will have far fewer tools to encourage compliance with the ​Five-Point Consensus or promote a genuine political dialogue," said Ye Myo Hein at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute.