What Israel seeks to achieve by launching attacks on Lebanon

Israel's escalation of its conflict in the north with Lebanese group Hezbollah is pushing the region to the brink of an all-out war. Israel's strategic intentions behind its Lebanon attacks needs to be addressed as it has rejected global calls for a ceasefire, even defying its biggest ally the United States.

The Israeli army is already engaged in a war for nearly a year with Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, where the death toll now stands over 41,000. 

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, in his address at the United Nations General Assembly yesterday, pointed out that whole Palestinian families have been annihilated, their family names completely erased. "I ask you to answer me, by God, stop this crime! Stop it now! Stop killing children and women... Stop sending weapons to Israel," he said.

Israel and Hezbollah have launched repeated strikes against each other since the Gaza war began, but the escalation on 23 September marked the deadliest day in Lebanon since Israel and Hezbollah last went to war in 2006. Israeli attacks have killed more than 700 people in Lebanon this week. 

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they aim for the safe return of some 60,000 residents evacuated from northern Israel due to ongoing attacks by Hezbollah. 

As Netanyahu tries to "escalate to de-escalate" the conflict with Hezbollah, it is hard to see how the residents of northern Israel could be confident enough to return to their homes without Israeli military driving Hezbollah forces a considerable way back from the border.

The Gaza quagmire

With its rocket and drone attacks, Hezbollah hopes to pressure Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas and says it would cease the attacks if there were a truce in Gaza. But the prospects for a ceasefire appear bleak with no sign of the war abating. 

Despite all the killing and destruction, Israel is yet to claim a meaningful victory in Gaza. Hamas continues to survive and holds Israeli hostages in the Palestinian enclave. 

In an effort to cover the apparent failures in Gaza, Israel had to look elsewhere for a win. Achieving some sort of victory and returning some Israeli citizens to the north would seem a win for the Israeli regime.

The confrontation with Hezbollah is an effort to distract from the fact that Israel has been caught in a quagmire in Gaza. Lacking any clear and fruitful strategy in Gaza, Netanyahu is deliberately creating a second front in the north. 

Striking Iran's 'crown jewel'

On the other hand, attacking and weakening Hezbollah opens doors for Israel to strike blows to its arch-enemy Iran. 

Hezbollah is often described as the "crown jewel" of Iran's Axis of Resistance that encircles Israel with allied groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine.

Israel may hope that by destabilising Hezbollah sufficiently in the coming months, it can act against Iran without the need to worry about its northern border. 

Israel may further aim to use the Lebanon attacks as a way to create the option of a future attack on Iran's nuclear establishments.

Netanyahu's forever war

Meanwhile, in Israel, Netanyahu faces the ire of the Israeli public for his failures in bringing back hostages from Gaza through a ceasefire deal. 

Besides facing court cases for corruption, Netanyahu is also expected to be held accountable for the significant security failures that led to Hamas's 7 October attacks.

To the Israeli public, Netanyahu can no longer sell his dismal ambition to completely destroy Hamas. But he needs wars to continue for as long as possible to hold together his governing coalition. 

Prolonged military campaigns, such as attacks on Lebanon, allow Netanyahu to postpone his day of reckoning and maintain his fragile hold on power.

It is yet to be clear to what extent Israel will conduct the campaign against Hezbollah and how Hezbollah will retaliate. 

But the ultimate toll will be paid by the people of Lebanon as Israel seeks yet more war, destruction and devastation.

The author is a journalist.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.