Six months on, Trump struggles to end a war he started

America's war on Iran was launched on 28 February, with US President Donald Trump calling on the Iranian people to topple their government, and declaring that Tehran "can never have a nuclear weapon." White House spokesperson insisted the war would be over in "four to six weeks."

Six months later, the two sides are still trading blows, and most of the talk behind the scenes is about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Around 20 per cent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through this 22-mile-wide channel. 

The latest exchange of missile strikes aptly illustrates the net effect of Trump's war and demonstrates his failure to achieve any of the objectives he set out at the beginning.

The US military attacked several locations in Iran on 01 September, claiming they were in retaliation for Iranian attempts to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 

President Trump followed that up with a post on his Truth Social site, warning Iran not to retaliate. "If the failed nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit at a much harder and higher level," Trump wrote. 

In response, Iran attacked US bases and facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Kurdish regions of Iraq. There was an additional reason why Iran responded with multiple attacks despite Trump's warning. 

According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, the US attacks struck a wedding party in Sirik county, killing four people, including a 4-year-old child. 

Iranian outrage at the killings in Sirik was demonstrated by Tehran's chief negotiator at talks with the US, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. "If a power acts like Satan, picks targets like Satan and kills like Satan, it is Satan," he said.

Shattered deterrence 

Tehran's response, despite Trump's threats, shows the US no longer has a deterrent effect on Iran. The deterrence that US bases in the Gulf, from Iraq in the north down to the UAE in the south, were designed to provide was shattered during the first 40 days of the war. The bases only made the small Gulf Arab nations as well as Saudi Arabia, vulnerable to Iranian attacks. 

Ironically, the Strait of Hormuz was not even mentioned in President Trump's speech six months earlier, which announced the "beginning of major combat operations." 

The US objectives were all about regime change, destruction of Iran's military capabilities, especially its missile and drone industry and choking off financing to militias in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Gaza, which were allied to Tehran. 

Iran changed the strategic direction of the war by imposing control over the Strait and choking off a significant portion of the world's energy supplies, thus raising prices of oil and gas globally. 

Six months later, President Trump's only realistic route to claiming victory, it seems, lies in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. 

In short, Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into the reason why President Trump cannot just walk away without striking a deal of some sort with Tehran. 

Duel over the Strait

Now the US appears to be pursuing a two-pronged strategy to achieve its newfound objective. 

Firstly, it has engaged the good offices of Qatar and Pakistan to act as mediators to thrash out some sort of deal with Iran to re-open the Strait. The negotiations produced a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding in June, but its 60-day period has already expired without progress on any of the issues at stake. 

Simultaneously, the US is pursuing a military path designed to gradually wrest control of the waterway from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or IRGC. The US Navy has imposed a blockade on all Iranian ports, while continuing to confront IRGC attempts to disrupt shipping. 

The US has opened a channel close to the Oman side of the Strait, offering to provide protection from missiles and drones to ships that choose to take this path. President Trump has recently claimed that the US now controls the Strait and its Navy has removed all sea mines hindering traffic in the area. 

There is indeed an uptick in traffic through the Strait, but it's nowhere near its pre-war level. Ships also appear to be coordinating with the IRGC and taking the safer route operated by Iran. The IRGC claimed on September 2 that two oil tankers have hit sea mines and exploded while trying to transit the Strait through the US-designated channel. 

These developments suggest that US attempts to deny Iran control of the waterway have not had the kind of effect Washington had hoped. 

Message of defiance 

The US focus on the Strait of Hormuz is designed to remove one of Tehran's most potent leverages in this war. By controlling the Strait, Iran has essentially turned the war into an international conflict where countries far and wide are having to bear high costs to their economy through no fault of their own.

The US has also added enhanced economic sanctions, including threats of secondary sanctions on nations that trade with Iran, to these efforts to re-open the Strait. The expectation in Washington is that the sanctions will strangle Iran's economy, compelling the Tehran leadership to accept US terms for an end to the war. 

But the message from Iran remains one of defiance. That message was passed to the US through intermediaries in recent days. 

Immediately before the latest flare-up, there was a flurry of diplomatic activity which raised hopes that the "peace process" - if it can be called that - was gathering some momentum. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian even suggested this was the right time to make peace. But efforts by mediators failed to convince top officials in Tehran. 

Pakistan's defence chief Field Marshal Asim Munir's visit to Tehran on August 24 failed to produce any result. Munir's visit was followed by Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman bin Jasim al Thani on August 27. Different mediators, same outcome. 

Political peril for Trump

Neither side currently appears willing - or even able -  to return to the all-out war of March. It has been clear for months that the US cannot achieve any of its original objectives through military means alone. The economic pressure on Iran is greater now than ever before, but Tehran's resilience in the face of such adversity is also recognised globally. 

The US has the capability to inflict severe damage on Iran's defences around the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to keeping Iran's economy under pressure and ports blockaded. Iran appears unable to repel US attacks, but retains the ability to retaliate.

The war seems to have settled into a pattern. The longer the stalemate continues, the greater the risk of an economic collapse in Iran. Trump is banking on it. But a long-drawn-out conflict imposes costs on the global economy and can spell trouble for Trump domestically. Tehran is betting on that. 

Without a breakthrough on the diplomatic front, this war runs the risk of turning into another of those "never-ending wars" that Donald Trump once found so objectionable. For Trump, an ongoing war with an uncertain endgame poses a major political challenge.  

The US is scheduled to go into crucial midterm elections in two months' time. These elections could redefine Trump's presidency - perhaps even the rest of his life - if the Democratic Party manages to wrest control of Congress from the Republicans. 

As long as the war, however low its intensity, drags on and petrol prices at the pump remain higher than last year, Trump's Republican Party will be at risk of a disaster. 

Iran cannot force the issue militarily, but defiance and resilience are potent weapons in this war of nerves.  As long as Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to hit back at US facilities in the region, it will not see any reason to compromise on its own demands, which include an end to sanctions, the return of frozen assets and help with reconstruction. 

The nuclear issue, which has defined Tehran's strained relations with the West for over two decades, seems to have left the chat. 

Sabir Mustafa is a journalist and podcaster.  Email: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. X handle: @Sabir59

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.