Energy independence: A survival imperative for Bangladesh

Bangladesh stands today at a critical crossroads. Its growth in the power sector over the past decade has been powered largely by fossil fuels—natural gas, oil, and coal—most of which are imported. While this model sustained industrial expansion and improved living standards, it has also created a structural vulnerability.

The recent global energy disruptions triggered by the Middle East conflict have made one reality unmistakably clear: energy dependence is no longer just an economic issue—it is a matter of national survival.

The country's energy demand has been rising steadily with industrialisation, urbanisation, and increased electrification. Yet domestic energy production has failed to keep pace. Bangladesh now imports a significant share of its fuel, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), which accounts for roughly one-third of total gas supply. This dependence exposes the country to external shocks—price volatility, supply disruptions, and geopolitical instability.

The current crisis illustrates this vulnerability vividly. The ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted energy flows through critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil and gas trade. As a result, fuel prices have surged, and supply chains have tightened.

Bangladesh's annual fossil fuel import bill is projected to increase by nearly $4.8 billion—a 40% rise—placing immense pressure on foreign exchange reserves. For a developing economy, such a shock is not easily absorbed.

The effects are already visible across multiple sectors. In early 2026, the government was forced to implement emergency measures, including energy rationing and even the temporary closure of universities, to conserve fuel. Fuel shortages have led to long queues at filling stations, while industries face irregular power supply, affecting production and employment. These are not isolated inconveniences—they are symptoms of a bigger systemic risk.

Perhaps the most alarming consequence is the impact on agriculture and food security. Natural gas is not only used for electricity but also serves as a key input for fertiliser production. Due to acute gas shortages, five out of six major urea fertilizer factories in Bangladesh have suspended production due to severe gas shortages. This has severely reduced domestic fertiliser output, forcing greater reliance on imports at a time when global supply chains are already strained.

The situation is further aggravated by disruptions in global fertiliser markets. The Middle East conflict has affected the production and transportation of fertilisers worldwide, raising fears of a broader food crisis.

Bangladesh, which already imports a large portion of its fertiliser, now faces the risk of supply shortages during critical planting seasons. Lower fertiliser availability could translate into reduced crop yields, ultimately driving up food prices and increasing food insecurity for millions.

This chain reaction—from energy shortage to fertiliser disruption to food insecurity—demonstrates how deeply energy is intertwined with every aspect of national stability. The crisis does not stop there. Bangladesh's economy also depends heavily on remittances from expatriate workers, many of whom are employed in the Gulf region.

Economic slowdown in these countries could reduce remittance inflows, weakening Bangladesh's foreign currency reserves just when they are needed most to finance energy imports.

Given this context, the urgency of achieving greater energy independence cannot be overstated. While complete self-sufficiency may not be immediately feasible, Bangladesh can significantly reduce its vulnerability through a combination of strategic measures.

First and foremost, the country must accelerate the expansion of renewable energy, particularly solar power. Bangladesh has already demonstrated success in deploying solar home systems and rooftop installations, making it one of the global leaders in off-grid solar adoption. Scaling up grid-connected solar capacity is the logical next step. Studies suggest that even a small fraction of land—around 1% of agricultural land—could generate tens of thousands of megawatts of solar power.

For example, industrial rooftop solar systems are already proving to be cost-effective, often delivering electricity at lower rates than grid power. Expanding such systems across export-oriented industries—such as garments and textiles—could reduce dependence on imported fuels while enhancing competitiveness in global markets. Similarly, large-scale solar parks on unused government land, including riverbanks and non-arable land, could quickly add capacity if regulatory and financing barriers are removed.

Second, Bangladesh must ensure the timely completion and operation of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. Nuclear energy offers a reliable, baseload power source that is not subject to the same supply volatility as fossil fuels.

With a capacity of 2,400 MW, Rooppur has the potential to replace a significant portion of gas-based power generation. This would free up natural gas for critical sectors such as fertiliser production, directly supporting food security.

Third, the country should intensify exploration and development of domestic natural gas reserves. Despite declining production from existing fields, Bangladesh is believed to have significant untapped reserves, particularly in offshore areas. Projects such as the Bhola gas field could play a crucial role in reducing import dependence in the medium term. While fossil fuels are not a long-term solution, domestic resources can serve as a bridge during the transition to cleaner energy.

Fourth, energy efficiency and demand-side management must become national priorities. Simple measures—such as promoting energy-efficient appliances, improving building insulation, and encouraging public transport—can significantly reduce overall energy consumption. The recent government directive urging reduced gas use and prevention of wastage is a step in the right direction, but sustained efforts are needed.

Fifth, electrification of transport and cooking can reduce reliance on imported oil and gas. Electric vehicles, induction cooking, and other clean technologies not only improve energy efficiency but also align with global trends toward decarbonisation. While the transition will require investment, it will pay dividends in the form of reduced fuel imports and improved environmental outcomes.

Finally, Bangladesh must adopt a long-term, integrated energy strategy that prioritises resilience. This includes diversifying energy sources, strengthening infrastructure, and building strategic reserves. It also requires institutional reforms to streamline project implementation, attract investment, and reduce bureaucratic delays.

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. Even traditional oil-exporting countries are diversifying their economies in anticipation of a future where fossil fuels play a diminished role. For Bangladesh, the current crisis is both a warning and an opportunity. It highlights the risks of overdependence on external energy sources, but it also creates momentum for reform.

Energy independence, in the strictest sense, may remain an aspirational goal. However, reducing exposure to external shocks is both achievable and essential. By investing in renewable energy, advancing nuclear power, developing domestic resources, and improving efficiency, Bangladesh can build a more secure and sustainable energy system.

The stakes could not be higher. Energy is the backbone of economic growth, food production, and social stability. Without reliable and affordable energy, development gains can quickly unravel. In this context, the pursuit of energy independence is not merely a policy choice—it is a necessity for survival in an increasingly uncertain world.

Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury is the Director of Centre for Energy Research at United International University. Dr Shakila Aziz is an Associate Professor at School of Business and Economics, United International University

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.