A diplomatic victory for the Taliban?
In 2025, India's recent high-level diplomatic meeting with the Taliban in Dubai marks a significant change in strategy. What does this signify, however, for India, the Taliban, and the wider region?
When Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, the world watched as decades of foreign intervention unravelled in a matter of weeks. For India, this marked the end of a long-standing investment in Afghanistan's democratic and developmental journey. Roads, schools, dams, and even a new parliament building stood as testaments to India's efforts to strengthen ties with its neighbour.
Yet, as the Taliban solidified control, India found itself sidelined in a region increasingly influenced by Pakistan and China. Fast forward to 2025, and India's recent high-level diplomatic meeting with the Taliban in Dubai signals a dramatic shift in its approach. But what does this mean for the Taliban, India, and the broader region?
India's outreach to the Taliban marks a departure from its earlier policy of distancing itself from the group. Historically, India has been wary of the Taliban due to its ties with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its brutal regime during the 1990s. However, the geopolitical chessboard has changed dramatically. With China's growing influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan's deteriorating relations with the Taliban, India appears to be leveraging the shifting dynamics to secure its interests.
The meeting between India's top diplomat, Vikram Mishra, and the Taliban's acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaki, emphasises this calculated approach. The Chabahar port, which India is developing in Iran to bypass Pakistan's Gwadar and Karachi ports, was reportedly a key topic of discussion. For India, Chabahar represents a strategic lifeline to Central Asia, one that could redefine trade and connectivity in the region.
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For the Taliban, this meeting is a significant diplomatic victory. Since taking power, the group has sought legitimacy on the global stage. While no country has officially recognised the Taliban government, over 40 nations have maintained informal ties. India's decision to engage with the Taliban at such a high level not only boosts the group's credibility but also signals a growing acceptance of its role in regional affairs.
Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asia, aptly noted that India's engagement lends the Taliban a level of legitimacy they have been desperately seeking. In the realm of diplomacy, perception often carries as much weight as reality. The Taliban can now present this meeting as evidence of its growing acceptance, potentially paving the way for further engagements with other nations.
To understand the significance of India's move, one might turn to popular depictions of diplomacy in movies and series. In The Diplomat (2023), the protagonist navigates complex international relationships, often balancing strategic interests with moral dilemmas. Similarly, Homeland portrays the intricate dance of alliances and betrayals in geopolitics. These narratives highlight a central truth: diplomacy is rarely about choosing between right and wrong. Instead, it's about finding common ground, even with adversaries, to advance national interests.
India's engagement with the Taliban mirrors this delicate balancing act. By opening channels of communication, India acknowledges the Taliban's control while signalling its intent to protect its strategic and economic interests. This approach does not imply endorsement but rather a pragmatic recognition of ground realities.
One cannot analyze India's engagement with the Taliban without considering Pakistan. Historically, Pakistan has viewed Afghanistan as its strategic backyard, using it to exert influence and counterbalance India. However, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have soured in recent years. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group responsible for attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban, in turn, has condemned Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory.
India's outreach to the Taliban can be seen as a strategic move to exploit this rift. By establishing ties with the Taliban, India undermines Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan while securing its own foothold in the region. This is a classic example of the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle, often depicted in political dramas like House of Cards.
While India's engagement with the Taliban presents opportunities, it also carries significant risks. The Taliban's ties to extremist groups and its regressive policies on human rights, particularly women's rights, remain major concerns. Critics argue that engaging with the Taliban legitimises its oppressive regime and undermines global efforts to pressure the group into reform.
However, proponents of dialogue argue that isolation is unlikely to bring about change. As Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, noted, maintaining communication channels can increase pressure on the Taliban to improve its behaviour. History offers examples of how engagement, rather than isolation, can lead to gradual shifts. In Thirteen Days, a film about the Cuban Missile Crisis, dialogue and backchannel negotiations were key to averting a nuclear disaster. Similarly, India's engagement with the Taliban could serve as a platform for influencing the group's policies, albeit incrementally.
India's move has broader implications for regional power dynamics. By partnering with Iran to develop Chabahar and establishing ties with the Taliban, India strengthens its connectivity to Central Asia. This counters China's Belt and Road Initiative, which has been expanding its reach in South Asia and beyond. Additionally, India's engagement with the Taliban reduces its reliance on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan, weakening Islamabad's strategic leverage.
For the Taliban, India's involvement offers economic opportunities and a chance to diversify its international partnerships. Afghanistan's economy remains in dire straits, with humanitarian aid and trade serving as lifelines. India's investments and trade initiatives could provide much-needed relief while also offering the Taliban an incentive to moderate its policies to attract further engagement.
Beyond strategic interests, India's engagement with the Taliban also reflects its commitment to the Afghan people. Over the years, India has built a reputation as a benefactor, providing scholarships, training, and development assistance. As Michael Kugelman pointed out, this legacy positions India as a trusted partner for the Afghan public, even if the Taliban remains a contentious interlocutor.
However, sustaining this goodwill requires a careful balance. India must ensure that its engagement does not alienate the Afghan population or compromise its principled stance on human rights. This is reminiscent of the challenges faced by diplomats in The West Wing, where decisions often involve balancing moral imperatives with strategic necessities.
India's outreach to the Taliban is a pragmatic gamble, driven by shifting geopolitical realities and strategic imperatives. While the move carries risks, it also offers opportunities to secure India's interests in a volatile region. For the Taliban, this engagement represents a diplomatic win, enhancing its credibility and diversifying its international partnerships.
As the narrative unfolds, one thing is clear: the region's future will be shaped by how these relationships evolve. In the words of a fictional diplomat from The Crown, "Diplomacy is not about power; it's about persuasion." India's engagement with the Taliban embodies this principle, seeking to turn a historical adversary into a strategic partner—however tenuous that partnership may be.
H M Nazmul Alam, Lecturer, Department of English and Modern Languages, International University of Business, Agriculture and Technology.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
