BNP government’s first few months show old habits die hard

Much is made of the "first 100 days" in the US presidential system. This is seen as a "honeymoon period" when Congress go easy on the President, even though the media or civil society may not always adhere to such niceties. In the case of a parliamentary system of government, there is no tradition for such a specific honeymoon period, hence no particular significance to the first 100 or any number of days of a new government. 

The best that can be said in the case of a parliamentary system, is that a newly-elected government is usually afforded some sort of breathing space in its first few months in office. But that too depends on circumstances. 

For instance in the UK, the Labour Party under Keir Starmer won a landslide victory in the 2024 elections. But in less than three months, Starmer's popularity plummeted, as one crisis after another triggered a storm of criticism that severely eroded public trust in his government. No honeymoon for Sir Keir. 

Having said that, mimicking the US tradition and talking of the first 100 days does have its use. It allows commentators to look at the performance of the government within a specific time-frame (though the question, "why the first 100 days," would have no meaningful answer!)

For Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, May 27 marked that rather pointless "day" - 100th day in power. How has it fared? 

Iran war and measles crisis

It ought to be acknowledged that the new government was not dealt a particularly good hand to begin with. The outgoing interim government had left a stagnating economy, but one with a high rate of inflation. Investment remained low due to lack of confidence, with an unstable law and order situation. 

If that was not enough, the US-Israeli war on Iran triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, increasing costs of imported raw materials and uncertainty over export of readymade garments. 

To make matters worse, an outbreak of measles in mid-March, which has claimed the lives of more than 500 children, shocked the nation. Measles is a preventable disease and Bangladesh has an excellent record of vaccination. 

The government has struggled to manage the twin crises, in addition to the existing vulnerabilities. But given how early in the government's tenure these crises have come, the public are more likely to be in a forgiving mood than not. 

However, if the phrase "morning shows the day" holds any meaning, then the tell-tale signs of things to come were there for all to see within this time-frame. 

There were areas within the government's power that appear not to have been handled in the manner expected. The "morning" unfolded with yet another "capture"of an institution, something Bangladesh has seen happen repeatedly in the past.

Bangladesh Bank 'capture' 

Just eight days after Rahman took oath of office, the government abruptly terminated the contract of central bank governor Ahsan H Mansur, and replaced him with garments owner Mostaqur Rahman.

A businessman with background in accounting but no experience of central banking, Mostaqur Rahman was a member of the BNP's election steering committee. So the allegation that a professional central banker was replaced with a party loyalist cannot be dismissed so easily.   

Through this single act, the idea that Bangladesh had somehow arrived at a "new dawn" was unceremoniously jettisoned. The overthrow of the Awami League government in 2024 had raised the expectation that it would lead to new ways of doing politics and of running the country. That has now proved to be as forlorn as it was naive.  

Further signs of such old-style politics came with the appointment of new Vice Chancellors to various public universities, most of whom were known to be close to the BNP. The first session of the newly-elected parliament was also quite revealing. 

Awami League in the dark

The BNP-dominated Jatiya Sangsad duly rubber-stamped vast majority of the 133 Ordinances promulgated under the erstwhile interim regime headed by Muhammad Yunus. Some of these were highly partisan, such as removing the name of the country's founding-president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman from various institutions. 

But the approval of one Ordinance in particular demonstrated the limitations of pluralism in the current political scenario. 

This was the amended version of the 2009 Anti-Terrorism Act, which allowed Yunus to ban activities of the Awami League. The banning had enabled the Election Commission to disqualify the AL from the 2026 polls, thus disenfranchising a sizeable portion of the electorate. 

The BNP's decision to approve the draconian Ordinance carries two dangers. Firstly, it keeps a major political party and their supporters across the country outside the political arena, thus creating a condition for instability and conflict in the near future. 

Secondly, it hands the government an enormous power - the power to ban political parties. Such powers, given the history of Bangladesh, cannot be said to be safe in the hands of any government. 

There are suggestions that the BNP retained the ban on AL activities due to pressure from Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizens Party. This may well be the case, given that these two parties were instrumental in Yunus banning the AL in the first place. But even then, the question about BNP's intentions remains unanswered. 

A government enjoying two-thirds majority in parliament would be expected to fend off pressure from the opposition on such a critical issue - unless they are also quietly comfortable with the idea of keeping AL out of politics for the time being.   

Judiciary in the pocket

The BNP's decision to shelve two Ordinances that were designed to ensure independence of the judiciary from the executive branch, once again demonstrated the party's unwillingness to forfeit powers that enable it to influence the courts. 

No one in their right mind would suggest that passing of the Ordinances would dramatically change the way courts work in the country. The mindset of both judges and politicians need to change in order to make the courts truly independent of the government. It would take a lot of time, political will and discipline to change a regressive culture nurtured over decades. 

Passing the two Ordinances - one to set up a separate Secretariat for the Supreme Court and another to create a system of appointing judges that eliminates any role for the executive - would have been good first steps. 

The BNP stepping back from taking even that first step triggered a chorus of criticism inside as well as outside parliament. But this was not the only early warning. 

The BNP's failure to address and put an end to some of the interim government's repressive and revanchist actions point in the same direction. 

One of the more unsavoury aspects of the Yunus era was the blatant abuse of the legal system to dish out political retribution. The hundreds of "murder cases" filed against dozens of named and thousands of unnamed people worked as a weapon with which to punish Awami League leaders and supporters without actually convicting them of any crime. 

This abuse of the law has not ceased in the BNP's first three months or so in power. If anything, the BNP appears to be doubling-down on some of those. For instance, some journalists known for their closeness with the Awami League have been kept in jail without trial for nearly two years. But the BNP government appears to be implicating them in cases involving "crimes against humanity" in a Tribunal designed to try war criminals. 

Measles and LNG challenge

While political and constitutional issues are within BNP's powers to manage or mismanage, events beyond its control will continue to pose serious challenge for the government. 

Bangladesh is heavily dependent on imported oil and LNG, much of which comes from the Gulf. The Iran war's impact on Bangladesh has been, predictably, heavy. It's not going to get any better in the coming months. 

The government's response, so far, has been to raise fuel prices at the pump, regulate use of electricity and seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund. The Finance Minister, when he presents next year's budget proposals to parliament on June 11, is likely to shed more light on how the war has impacted on Bangladesh and what further steps the government plans to take.

The outbreak of measles in the middle of March was the kind of crisis a government - any government - is expected to prevent. But the apparent failure of the vaccination programmes, particularly in 2025 during the interim period, had left millions of children exposed to danger. 

The government's response, with a new drive to procure vaccines and roll out vaccination programmes have gone some way to establish some measure of control over the situation. 

Given the deadly seriousness of the measles outbreak, it was strange to see the prime minister's inability to resist the old-style temptation to have a dig at the past Awami League government. 

In a photo-card published by The Business Standard, the prime minister was quoted as saying, "Life-threatening failure of the previous two governments in not vaccinating children against measles across the country an unforgivable crime."   

In other words, the Awami League, whose last full, peaceful year in office was in 2023, is held as responsible as the Yunus regime which was in power from August 2024 to February 2026. 

Old habits die hard.

The writer is a freelance journalist. He can be contacted by email: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com

X handle: @sabir59