Bangladesh's energy independence: Role of nuclear energy expansion

National energy independence is a nation's ability to satisfy its energy and power demands using domestic resources and eliminating over-reliance on volatile fossil fuels imports. It ensures that a country can access the energy and power it needs without interruptions, at stable prices and over a long-term period.

Energy independence is the bedrock of economic and political sovereignty. It is fundamentally tied to national security, where a lack of domestic control over the energy supply leaves a nation deeply vulnerable. It exposes critical sectors to global commodity shocks, threatens economic stability through inflated import costs and acts as a primary catalyst for civil and political unrest.

For a densely populated developing nations without large, easily exploitable hydropower and limited domestic fossil fuels not only face economic hardships and balance of payments due to high cost of fossil fuels and electricity, they are also vulnerable with respect to energy security. Nuclear energy provides a vital, high-density solution for densely populated developing nations with a minimal land footprint. It delivers continuous, weather-proof base-load electricity necessary to stabilise economies and serves as a shield against volatile global energy prices.

Bangladesh's energy independence is a critical survival imperative rather than merely a policy choice. Successful implementation of Rooppur NPP and the expansion of nuclear baseload capacity are vital to mitigating the volatile global supply chains and depleted domestic gas reserves. Transitioning to a nuclear-powered baseload ensures long-term energy independence of the country.

A strategic vision for nuclear power to achieve energy independence

A strategic vision for nuclear power of Bangladesh prioritises clean, on-demand base-load electricity to insulate nations from volatile global fuel markets and achieve energy independence. It integrates large-scale reactors, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and next-generation technologies to enhance grid resilience and decarbonise heavy industry. 

The key reasons for establishing a strategic national nuclear power programme include the following.

Grid Reliability and Baseload Power 

A strategic vision for nuclear power could guarantee long-term energy security by providing continuous electricity, operating 24/7/365 at a capacity factor ranging from 91% to 93%. The NPP provides the necessary physical inertia and continuous generation to stabilise electrical grids, making it possible to safely scale up the proportion of renewable energy in the system without compromising stability. By supplying a constant, reliable and baseload generation the nuclear plant offsets the natural variability of the intermittency of wind and solar reliability, nuclear energy provides a stable, predictable foundation of electricity that can support rapid industrialisation and urban expansion.

Standardisation, Modularisation, Modularization and Supply Chain Localisation Approach for Cost-Competitiveness of Nuclear Power

Nuclear power plant has high upfront capital cost (CAPEX) but low and consistent operational cost (OPEX) over a long 60+20 to 30 years life-time, making nuclear power highly competitive in terms of levelized generation costs compared to coal, oil and LNG-based power.

Usually, a newcomer nation faces a front-loaded cost structure for the first NPP, unlike an NPP operating country. Addition to the NPP, the newcomer nation from scratch establishes comprehensive legal and liability framework, technical expertise in design evaluation, project management, technical institution for education and training for NPP personnel, specialised transport routes for heavy reactor components, capacity building of domestic construction firms and other hard and soft infrastructures in accordance to IAEA requirements from scratch. When a nation starts producing electricity from its first NPPs, it starts getting benefit from significant front-end capital investments costs that continues about 80 to 90 years. Once these initial sunk costs are absorbed, scaling up subsequent reactors within the newcomer country becomes significantly cheaper and faster.

A successful strategic vision for NPP is building identical reactor units at a single site. Serial construction optimisations, workforce continuity, and bulk local material purchasing can reduce total plant capital costs by 15% to 25% compared to isolated, first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects. The expansion of Rooppur NPP can bypass many of the initial sunk costs by heavily utilizing existing on-site construction and erection base facilities: (1) On-Site Infrastructure: Use of nuclear-grade concrete batching plants, dedicated pre-assembly zones, and secure storage yards for sensitive machinery (2) Operational Facilities: Integration of existing on-site contractor amenities, cafeterias, offices, and medical centers, eliminating the need to recreate foundational basecamps. (3) Pre-existing Heavy Logistics: Utilisation of jetty structures for heavy machinery, specialised lifting equipment, and heavy-load transport/internal site roads.

Leveraging existing site infrastructures (such as established off-site power lines, emergency frameworks, and designated evacuation routes) and an already-trained domestic workforce dramatically reduces future construction timelines and financial costs. Transitioning to Units 3 and 4 at the Rooppur site directly benefits from these established, localised foundations and supply chains.

Transitioning to Advanced NPP Technologies

The NPP technology acts as a bridge to a sustainable future through presently available Generation III + together with advanced technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs produce up to 300 MW per module. Russia and China are currently operating pilot or commercial Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), while the U.S. and Europe are targeting early 2030s deployment for their own fleets.

In addition, large NPPs are integrating evolutionary designs and advanced passive safety systems, which allows for deployment across diverse locations while meeting stringent safety regulations, achieving economies of scale, and securing reliable, clean baseload electricity. 

The IAEA actively monitors over 80 SMR designs and concepts worldwide. Through the IAEA SMR Platform, the agency coordinates technical assistance, capacity building and expertise support to help newcomer states navigate infrastructure, safety, and licensing requirements. It is realised from the IAEA studies that Bangladesh's long-term energy security requires a dual-track strategy combining centralised large-scale NPPs with decentralised SMR deployments. This strategy optimises the national grid, diversifies plant locations, and creates localised electricity load balance across the country.

In addition, pursuing Research and Development (R&D) in fast reactor technology is a visionary step that aligns perfectly with the country's long-term energy security.

Ecological Preservation & National Climate Targets and Foreign Direct Investment Attraction Strategy

The NPP doesn't actually burn anything, so it doesn't emit particulate pollution or greenhouse gases that accelerate climate change. It supports sustainability goals by reducing greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxide, and particulate emissions, fostering economic development. Because of this high-power density, an NPP requires a substantially smaller area. This localised infrastructure minimises natural habitat disruption and helps preserve local biodiversity.

The two-unit Rooppur NPP is estimated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 20 million tons annually when compared to coal-fired plants, and more than 8 million tons against gas-based plants. The 2,400 MW facility supports Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and drives strategic targets for SDG-7: Affordable and Clean Energy and SDG-8: Economic Growth.

The steady baseload and reliable clean energy profile not only reduces carbon footprints but also directly addresses strict ESG criteria to attract large-scale Foreign Direct Investment for energy-intensive manufacturing.

Domestic Technological Advancement and Innovation 

Nuclear power acts as a catalyst for industrial and technological advancement, generating massive socio-economic spin-off benefits like local job creation, skilled workforce, robust R&D technology transfer and infrastructure development. The NPP construction elevates national capabilities of local civil construction firms, construction manufacturing companies and improves other high-tech sectors, material sciences and advanced manufacturing.

Matching Regional NPP Expansion Trends and Overcoming Resource Constraints

The expansion of a nation's domestic nuclear capacity usually relies heavily on indigenous energy resources and the regional and geopolitical dynamics. Bangladesh's South Asian neighbours, India, Pakistan and China are actively investing in nuclear power to supplement their domestic coal and hydropower, highlighting an economic consensus that nuclear energy is a vital driver for sustained industrial growth. 

For example, India has a vision for NPP with a total capacity of 100,000 MW by 2047. Pakistan's immediate target is to generate 8,800 MW by 2030  and its targets for 40,000 MW in the year 2050. China is aggressively accelerating its nuclear energy fleet to reach 125,000 MW by 2030 from its current installed capacity of 63,000 MW. It has roadmaps for scaling up NPP capacity to 200,000 MW by 2035 and eventually hitting up to 350,000 MW - 400,000 MW by 2050. Moreover, China, India, and Pakistan all possess massive domestic coal reserves and vast hydropower potential. 

NPP strategic planning for Energy Security and Energy Independence

Nuclear power plants provide exceptional operational resilience. Their infrequent refuelling intervals (typically every 1.0 to 2.5 years) and on-site stockpiles insulate grids from short-term market shocks. Furthermore, bilateral trade pacts and structural safeguards governed by the International Atomic Energy Agency ensure a secure front-end fuel supply.

As South Asian and neighbouring economies scale up their clean energy base-loads to supplement indigenous resources, Bangladesh's strategic roadmap targets an ambitious 15% to 20% share of electricity generation from nuclear energy by 2050. To supplement indigenous resources and scale up clean energy, Bangladesh is rapidly moving forward with several critical milestones and operational targets.

Phase I: Short-Term (2026 to 2030)

Target Capacity: 2400 MW and Share Goal: about 5% – 10%.

Rooppur Units 1 & 2 Integration: Finalization of the trial operations of the dual-unit 2,400 MW of Rooppur NPP according revised schedule; 

Monitoring efforts at the national level center on the trial operations, nuclear fuel loading of both units, and finalizing the remaining power evacuation networks;

Rooppur Units 3 & 4 Planning: Completion of a comprehensive site feasibility and expansion studies feasibility studies for an additional 3rd and 4th units (2,000 to 2,400 MW and determine capacity, technology, financing and project implementation modality

SMR Technology: Engaging with the IAEA Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Platform for pre-feasibility and technology assessment studies to ensure the reactors align with grid capacities;

Finalization of the site for the first batch of SMRs and

Developing a comprehensive SMR roadmap.

Phase II: Medium-Term (2030 - 2040)

Target Capacity: 4600 – 5000 MW and Share Goal: about 10% - 15%.

Rooppur Units 3 & 4: Completion construction and commissioning of Rooppur Units 3 and 4 (2,000 to 2,400 MW) by 2040 for increasing baseload stability; 

Monitoring the readiness of the PGCB transmission networks and integrating complex river-crossing lines needed to safely evacuate additional NPP capacity and

Planning a second large-scale NPP site and completion of site selection procedure for a twin-reactor plant with total installed capacity more than 2000 MW.

Initial SMR Deployment: Finalising the construction and commissioning of the first module of the SMR at geographically diverse locations to decentralise regional baseload distribution and

Monitoring the readiness of the PGCB transmission networks needed to safely evacuate SMR capacity.

SMR Site Pipeline: Finalising the pipeline of another new SMR-designated sites to prepare for systemic grid decentralisation.

Fast Reactor Technology:  Conducting technical feasibility and infrastructure research on next-generation fast reactors to advance fuel efficiency and waste management capabilities.

Phase III: Long-Term (2040 to 2050)

Target Capacity: 7,200 – 9,000 MW and Share Goal: 10% - 15%.

Large-Scale Scaling: Adding two to three additional large-scale units from a  new site with each of capacity about 1200 – 1400 MW to hit regional parity and push baseload capacity well over 7,200 MW;

SMR Fleet Expansion: Completion of construction of an additional 7 SMRs at two locations, prioritising decentralised, remote-area power grids to drive industrial growth and

Fast Reactor Technology: Starting construction of the fast reactor NPP with a suitable capacity.

Conclusions

The successful implementation of Bangladesh's Strategic Vision for Nuclear Power requires a comprehensive national nuclear energy policy and strategies, transparent institutional frameworks and sustained national political commitment. Achieving true energy independence for Bangladesh requires transitioning from reliance on foreign technical assistance to complete national self-reliance in nuclear operations. This transformation demands robust talent retention, localized regulatory frameworks, rigorous long-term knowledge management, experienced experts' involvement, and national commitment to independently sustain facilities like the Rooppur NPP.

Mohammad Shawkat Akbar is the Retired Chairman of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.