Reshaping economy towards a better tomorrow 

Bangladesh has seen significant development over the last decade. Our GDP has been growing at 7% in the recent past years and 6% on average per annum in the last decade. The growth has recorded high at 8.15% until the pandemic outbreak. However, the onslaught of coronavirus pandemic plunged the GDP growth to 5.47% while almost all developed and developing economies recorded negative growth. Per capita GNI has increased to USD 2,554 in 2021. These positive growth during the pandemic time recognized Bangladesh as one of the top economic performers. The macroeconomic trend of the country shows optimism of V-shaped rapid recovery from vulnerability. Our resilient private sector has been playing pivotal roles in economic recovery management. It has always been a major contributor to developmental journey of Bangladesh. The private investment to GDP ratio was always incremental but slightly reduced to 23% to GDP due to COVID effect and it is targeted to reach 27.35% in 2025. In view of recent macroeconomic position and dynamism, investment target seems achievable. However, policy measures along with enabling business environment are essential antecedents for ensuring higher private investment. The growing "middle and affluent consumers" (MAC) base with strong purchasing power is new economic driver to strengthen our local economy, promote trade potential and enhance economic competitiveness globally. Infrastructural priority, demographic dividend, low-cost financing, comprehensive backward linkage industry and technological improvement in the country can privilege our businesses to utilize the economic competitiveness. The economy should have adopted the road to recovery plan as an inclusive, timebound and result-oriented recovery agenda is critical to rehabilitate the economy. However, there are issues and aspects that may hold back economic acceleration are elicited hereafter to shape better economic stature.  
 
Infrastructure is inevitable for economic development. Lack of appropriate and inclusive infrastructure is one of the bottlenecks for desired private sector business development. Bangladesh requires an investment of minimum 5% of GDP which is $320 billion of cumulative investment in physical infrastructure by 2030 to meet the growing infrastructure demand though almost all our peer economies invest ranging from 5% to 10% of GDP. The transport sector alone requires between $36 and $45 billion investment. However, in FY2021-22, only around $5.8 Bn has been allocated in this sector. The national budget of the country planned investment around $15.98 Bn in diverse infrastructure avenues for an integrated infrastructure development. If this infrastructure budget is implemented, the country will be able to exceed expectations. However, the issue of infrastructural financing is to be taken into account as the tax-GDP ratio of the country is not as high as in most regional peers. Therefore, reliance on banking sector led financing may put advancement of this sector into new challenge. Besides, PPP modeled investment and private investment are needed to trim burden of public financing to some extent. Our fast-track projects which are underway need to be implemented soon to add value to the GDP and other economic fronts. Consistent infrastructure development can open the window of foreign investment in infrastructure which in turn will ease foreign and private investment in other sectors. It is worth pointing out that our FDI has been hovering within $2.5 to $3 billion within the last couple of years and pandemic has aggravated it.
 
Though logistics is a critical element of local infrastructural competence but weak logistics have become a matter of concern. Bangladesh has ranked 100th in World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2018 down from earlier 82nd position. Bangladesh fared well in terms of shipment tracking, tracing and timing but regionally is in a disadvantaged state in logistics fitness ass revealed in Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). The country needs sizable investment in overall logistics sector to maintain a strong supply chain network for foreign trade facilitation. Customs management is behind regional peers- India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam. Major export industry stakeholders often voice their concerns that inefficient logistics hike the cost unexpectedly inflating lead time and keep them behind competing economies. Customs and port management need to be fully automated and equipped at par advanced ports to gain competitive trade benefits.
 
To overcome these challenges and enhance the competitiveness in the changing global economic context, we have to imperatively create human capital equipping our tech-savvy, young workforce as per their skills and strength to generate more economic dividend under robust up-sskilling and re-skilling programmes. Our education system has the most important role to play in this regard. The work-based blended education and skills development friendly education system need to replace conventional education to create diverse skilled people for employability in local and international job markets. Industry and academia linkage is getting momentum as the pressing need of time to fuel economic momentum accordingly. The government has to prioritize it to foster people of diverse skills through a balanced environment.
 
Climate vulnerability is another concern of the country. Resilience of Bangladesh is hailed globally. With effective policies and supports from the government as well as development partners, Bangladesh could tackle some climate risks. The government took various strategic decisions to adapt and mitigate climate vulnerability, but the reality is businesses and industries are not fully equipped to deal with the likely risks. And the private sector needs new models and adaptation in business for sustenance considering SDGs and climate change effects. 
 
Bangladesh is going to graduate into a developing economy by 2026 according to UNCDP. This economic milestone indicates changed economic outlook. In the transitional and transformational phase, Bangladesh will undergo economic and business policy changes, institutional and structural reforms in core economic system including financial sector, investment, industrial context, tariff system, local market as well international trading network. To overcome the interim economic transition, all relevant stakeholders of the economy need to endeavour collectively and strategically for smooth transformation after 2026 so that economic expedition of Bangladesh remains uninterrupted.
 
Predictable policy regime is a pressing need for private sector led economic growth. Since businesses went through unforeseen crisis caused by the pandemic, therefore a predictable and pro-business ecosystem featured by business-friendly regulatory environment needs to be ensured to leverage the private sector with multiplier effects for sustainable economic recovery. Of late, Bangladesh not only builds itself but also contributes to global resurgence through its growing global engagements backed by digitalization with the spirit of connecting the economy of tomorrow. A farsighted private sector can mobilize trade and investment trend to steer the economy towards competitiveness and transformation needed for Bangladesh to become a developed economy. 

Rizwan Rahman is the president of DCCI