Shaheen Afridi in a slump but aura remains
Poor form aside, the pacer carries with him a sense of occasion, conjuring a plug-and-play sense of spectacle.
It's been a strong start to the 2023 ODI World Cup for Pakistan. Two wins from two matches, albeit against sides - Netherlands and Sri Lanka - that we wouldn't expect to qualify for the semi-finals, have seen Babar Azam's team build a solid foundation for their own qualification. The highest ever chase in a World Cup is under their belt, and emerging with no injuries - they couldn't have asked for much more.
However, on an individual level there are some causes for concern. Babar Azam and Imam-ul-Haq have both had quiet starts to the tournament, the consistent top order going through a rare lean patch.
Perhaps more concerningly, Shaheen Shah Afridi has also had a poor start to the competition. Two wickets in two matches, averaging over 50, and going at 6.4rpo - those are not the figures you would expect of a bowler of Shaheen's class and reputation.
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That reputation is well earned. Shaheen has, over the last few years, evolved into a genuine elite ODI bowler. In particular, his strike rate - 26.1 - is up there with the very best in history. Only Ajantha Mendis, Sandeep Lamichhane and Mitchell Starc have recorded a better strike rate in ODI cricket, among those with as many wickets as Shaheen. He is, objectively, all class.
But in this World Cup, that class has been far from apparent. CricViz's Bowling Impact model calculates the value of a players performances in white ball cricket, assigning it a run value above or below what we'd expect the average player would do. Currently, Shaheen has -38 average Bowling Impact in this World Cup; that isn't just bad, it's the worst of any bowler in the competition.
The biggest worry for Pakistan fans - and perhaps, with Saturday's game in sight, the biggest hope for Indian fans - is that this poor form isn't limited to the World Cup. In his last 11 matches, Shaheen has recorded a positive Bowling Impact (i.e. been an effective bowler on the day) in just two matches. That's not a long-term drop off in performance, but it's not a write off. It demands attention.
Some of the raw materials are still there. His most iconic asset, that new ball swing, is still present. Across the two matches against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka, he's averaged 1.36 degrees of swing in the first 10 overs; that ranks him 7th out of 31 new ball bowlers in the competition, for movement alone.
However, while that swing would typically come at pace, that pace of late has dropped off. In the last 18 months, the percentage of his deliveries up above 140kph has fallen off a cliff, back down to less than one ball an over. While he isn't an enforcer, or someone who relies on his pace for intimidation of batters, it matters. It forces them into mistakes, it exaggerates the effects of the swing. Losing it is not good.
It's not good for cricket, either. Shaheen is among the most charismatic bowlers in business today. He carries with him a sense of occasion, conjuring a plug-and-play sense of spectacle. The entire mythology around a Shaheen First Over is deserving of more time and consideration than we have here, but it is built on very solid foundations. Only 20 bowlers in history have taken 20+ wickets in the first over of an international match, and Shaheen is among them - having played just 81 matches. Chaminda Vaas, top of the pile, played 340.
That mythology sustains him in these lean periods. 11 games, with only two positive - that is a slump, by anyone's judgement. Yet still, for now at least, that aura remains. Batters are still, rightly, terrified as the eagle swoops down towards them. There is still an unavoidable air of inevitability to Shaheen's new ball spells. A run of poor form is not going to dissipate that.
Perhaps he needs a rest. He has bowled a huge number of deliveries in the last six months, a time when injury and rehab have been as much of a focus as the cricket itself. For all involved, this World Cup is at best a marathon, and at worst a slog. There is endless travel, whiplash between varying conditions, before you even consider the political angle of being a Pakistan team in an Indian World Cup, and the mental drain that must introduce. Managing Shaheen back to a place where he can physically go into that top gear, find that extra yard of pace, should be the focus for all in the Pakistan dressing room.
