It has been more than seventy years since the CIA orchestrated its infamous coup in Iran, which toppled the country's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh over the loss of Iranian crude oil and fear of Tehran's Soviet tilt. It changed the dynamics of Tehran-Washington relations over the years.

The first decade saw President Eisenhower gifting Iran's loyal Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi with a nuclear reactor for peaceful use. But after the 1979 revolution, relations changed dramatically when Iran took the American staff at the Tehran embassy hostage and demanded Shah's return to face trial. Shah died but Tehran managed to unfreeze $8 billion in assets before they released the staff.

And things never returned to normal between Tehran and Washington. While the United States has been hell-bent on destroying the Iranian regime, Tehran on the other hand wants the 'death' of the US.

The subsequent years have only seen the United States entangling itself further into the Middle Eastern abyss. Soon after the invasion of Afghanistan to drive the Taliban away, which 20 years later proved a failure, the Pentagon attacked Iraq in 2003 which resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths.

The United States' wars and fighting shifted to many countries of the Middle East in the last few decades. But its enmity with the Iranian regime - which Washington branded as a member of the 'axis of evil' along with Iraq and North Korea - and its shadow war across the region with Tehran has been consistent. 

The other camp would call the US' 'axis of evil' as 'Axis of Resistance'. Iran with its allied militia forces in the regions like Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis etc, has turned out to be the major force of resistance that Washington and its liability in the region - Tel Aviv - are worried about. 

Last week three US troops were killed and dozens of others were injured on the Jordan-Syria border in a drone strike by an Iran-backed militia and it has exacerbated the political crisis in the Middle East. 

It marks the first time that US troops have been killed since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel. President Joe Biden promised to respond, which he did. The US military launched airstrikes on Friday in Iraq and Syria against more than 85 targets linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the militias it backs.

These attacks have reportedly killed around 40 people, as per Reuters. 

So, what is waiting for Iran and the broader region? Could this tension spill over and escalate further?

Is the Axis of Resistance being revived?

The term 'Axis of Resistance' is making a new turn in the US-Iran conflict. Though the Axis of Resistance has been long-standing in this context, the war in Gaza has revived it.

It was the Libyan daily newspaper Al-Zahf Al-Akhdar who first coined the term "Axis of Resistance" in 2002 stating that "the only common denominator among Iran, Iraq and North Korea is their resistance to US hegemony."

After the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran sought to export its ideology and build its political heft throughout the Middle East. One of its tools for doing so was a network of proxies and allies that spans Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. They all had a common goal: resisting Western influence and confronting Israel.

Despite having ideological and political differences, the groups have managed to maintain their strategic relationship. Experts claim that their shared animosity toward Israel is what has kept the alliance intact.

Relations between Syria and the Palestinian movement were strong for many years, with Damascus being a safe haven for Hamas' leadership since the early 2000s. But that became quite complicated since the start of the 2011 Syrian revolt, which was a breaking point in their ties. Hamas distanced itself from Damascus due to disagreements with President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on the uprising against his rule.

Ten years later, in October 2022, Hamas restored ties with Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have reportedly played a vital role in this reconciliation. As a growing number of Arab governments are normalising their relations with Israel, a strong tie among them is now more crucial than ever.

In the developing scenario, Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah recently declared that the fight against Israel required nothing less than an "Axis of Resistance." And ever since the brutal Israeli attacks on Palestine since 7 October, Hezbollah's support for Hamas has been substantial. 

What's next?

The Western nations claim that they do not want the war in the Gaza Strip to turn into a regional conflagration. 

On the other hand, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other members of the Axis are taking a strategic move. They are bringing together a coalition of forces on a regional front strategically. 

While it started with Iran and Hezbollah, it has been rapidly evolving into something larger than its parts. The Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria are also rallying behind. 

Iran leads this Axis based on their common goal and shared sentiment against the US and Israel. All members of this Axis believe that they are all fighting the same war against Israel and, indirectly, the US. 

They react as though any strike against one is a strike against the entire Axis. The formation of this Axis indicates a clear threat to the US-built regional order.

Now as things again heat up on the heels of the Israeli aggression in Palestine, could the world see Iran and the US heading for a war? 

Possibly not. That's why the US has not targeted Iran directly, instead, they went after some of its most powerful proxies in the region. Iran also wants to fight the US and Israel without entering into direct conflict.

How the future geopolitics of the Middle Eastern theatre unfolds would possibly be determined by the US and its allies' response to the escalating scenario. 

Washington will need to be quite strategic with its moves because a weak approach will embolden the axis while going too tough risks conflagrating the ongoing crisis onto the broader region. 

Ariful Hasan Shuvo. Illustration: TBS