Why India, Maldives will remain on the same page despite deepening tensions

As the dust settles following the New Year's celebrations and plans for holidays begin to take shape, many Indians in unison have decided to skip their once favourite destination, the Maldives. They are calling it the "Boycott Maldives" movement with hashtags floating on X (formerly Twitter).

The tussle started when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted a seemingly innocuous photo of himself reclining on a lounge chair at a white sand beach in Lakshadweep – a tropical archipelago of 36 atolls and coral reefs in the Laccadive Sea, off the coast of Kerala – during his visit to the Union Territory of Lakshadweep on January 2. Other pictures showed the 73-year-old Modi snorkelling, wearing an orange life vest.

However, Modi's relaxing photos soon became the cause of agitation for some in the Maldives, as it was perceived as an attempt to draw tourists away from the archipelago in the Indian Ocean, whose economy is heavily dependent on tourism. 

Mariyam Shiuna, the Maldivian Deputy Minister of Youth Empowerment, took a jibe at India Prime Minister Modi in a post, labelling him a "clown", "terrorist" and "puppet of Israel" on X that has now been removed. 

Since then, many Indians, including famous actors and cricketers, have publicly backed efforts to promote local beaches and other tourism regions. One of India's largest travel sites suspended flight bookings to the Maldives as well. 

Facing massive backlash, the Maldives government distanced itself from the comments and has suspended three Maldivian ministers who made derogatory comments about Modi on social media.

Diving deeper into the dynamics of India-Maldives relationship, one thing becomes apparent that the current tension had been a long time in the making. Yet, given the mutual benefit of both sides in maintaining the relationship, it is likely that India and the Maldives will look to keep things under control, and maintain a friendly rapport in the days ahead. 

Recent years have seen an escalation in tensions between India and the Maldives. In the wake of the archipelago nation's accusations that India meddled in its internal affairs, a robust "India Out" campaign gained popularity, overshadowing former Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's "India First" policy. 

Since the election of the current Maldives president, Mohamed Muizzu, who assumed office in November, the relation has taken a bitter turn as he is seen to have better relations with China, to lessen India's influence over the archipelago. 

Muizzu has demanded that India remove its army personnel stationed there, and has threatened to review agreements with India. Additionally, India is concerned that Muizzu broke with the long-established norm of Maldivian presidents making their first official visit to New Delhi that many have seen as a snub.

India's relationship with the Maldives saw challenges emerging during another former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom's tenure, but New Delhi witnessed a significant improvement in relations under President Solih. However, the current Maldivian President is seen to have leaned towards China.

It is important for India to maintain its ties with the Maldives, especially given the growing Chinese interest in the archipelago. Photo: Reuters

China established bilateral relations with the Maldives in 1972. Since then, the Chinese have gradually increased investments in the Maldives and maintained a cordial relationship with the different Maldivian governments. 

By 2014, Chinese investments in the Maldives included a Maldives Ministry of Foreign Affairs building, a national museum, housing projects, and various investments in renewable energy. China is also the Maldives' largest source of tourist traffic, and it recently became the Maldives' first-ever free trade agreement partner.

According to a report by The Heritage Foundation, China's footprint in the Maldives has grown in recent years.  The Maldives' total debt is roughly $6.5 billion, amounting to over 30 percent of its gross national income. Of that, the Maldives owes an estimated $1.4 billion to China – and possibly as much as $3.5 billion, according to some estimates. This could lead to a shift in the balance of power in the region.

On the other hand, India and Maldives share a long history of friendly and close relations in strategic, economic, and military cooperation. Both nations established diplomatic relations after the independence of Maldives from British rule in 1966. India was one of the first nations to recognise Maldives' independence. Since then, India and Maldives have mostly maintained close ties.

India has supported Maldives' policy of keeping regional issues and struggles away from itself, and the latter has seen friendship with India as a source of aid as well as a counterbalance to Sri Lanka, which is in proximity to the island nation and its largest trading partner. 

In December 1976, India and the Maldives signed a maritime boundary treaty to agree on maritime boundaries. Both nations officially and amicably decided their maritime boundary in 1976. India and Maldives are founding members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the South Asian Economic Union, and signatories to the South Asia Free Trade Agreement. 

But Modi has strong ties to Israel, and on Monday, an account on X associated with the Israeli embassy in India seemed to construe the criticism directed against Modi as an official support.

"We were in #Lakshadweep last year upon the federal government's request to initiate the desalination program," the social media post said. "Israel is ready to commence working on this project tomorrow."

The current tourism row is just one of the many issues that have arisen due to the changing dynamics between the two countries.

The arrest of opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed in 2015 and the subsequent political crisis strained India's relationship with Maldives. Additionally, radicalization is a growing concern for India as an increasing number of Maldivians are being drawn towards terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based jihadist groups.

The dichotomy between India's formal diplomatic position and the actions of users on social media, like the "Boycott Maldives" trend underscores the contradictory nature of foreign policy in the digital age. 

The future implications of this issue are yet to be seen. However, India cannot take the Maldives' anti-India campaign for granted. It is important for India to maintain its ties with the Maldives, especially given the growing Chinese interest in the archipelago. 

The Maldives also have significant stakes in this situation. Presently, 90% of the country's economy relies on activities related to tourism, and Indian tourists contribute to over 11% of the international tourist influx. Therefore, if the "Boycott Maldives" trend persists in India, it could severely impact the Maldivian economy, a situation the country cannot afford to endure at the moment.

And so, India and the Maldives have reportedly agreed to look for "workable solutions for continued cooperation". And things are more than likely to remain so in the unforeseeable future.