The 2024 general elections in Bangladesh and the moment of truth
Now that the country has got its new government, despite the Western scrutiny and the Eastern support, the post-electoral challenges are about to begin
Daniel Twining wrote an interesting piece last week, mentioning that more people live under democracy in Asia than anywhere else. No doubt. He fears that the region is increasingly becoming a hotbed of Orwellian power politics in which populism and autocracy crave legitimacy based on popular consent. It's tough to disagree again.
What I would add to Daniel's thoughts is Thomas Jefferson's age-old statement that will be returning to Asia throughout 2024 – the government you elect is the government you deserve.
So, why have I brought Jefferson back to the earth? Bangladesh's general elections took place in which one of the two grand political parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), habitually refrained from participating.
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It hoped that international pressure would make the ruling party, Bangladesh Awami League (AL), bow down, and the masses would hit the streets to compel the party to quit. Neither happened.
In turn, the BNP has deprived its supporters of casting their right to vote – in its favour or to some other party's credit. On the other hand, AL has come to power for the fourth consecutive term by letting its supporters vote and giving options for the other party supporters to choose between AL or the dissenting candidates from both AL and BNP or alliances.
The result was phenomenal – the election took place with more voters participating. Unfortunately, in this 'winner takes all' strategy, none of the opposition has been able to demonstrate politically sane strategies to counter AL. People will judge the right and the wrong in this case. Hence, Jefferson dwindles!
Now that the country has got its new government, despite the Western scrutiny and the Eastern support, the post-electoral challenges are about to begin. Will AL and BNP continue to behave the way their history depicts? Well, that depends on three factors.
The first one depends on the composition of the upcoming cabinet. The country desperately needs a purely meritocratic cabinet – a necessity never felt this much before.
The economy will not be in its finest shape anytime soon, international affairs won't return to a utopian state of peace in the coming decades, and technology will sharply change the social capital as soon as tomorrow if not today.
Finance, Foreign, Commerce, Education, and Technology ministries and their subsidiaries will be the key to delivering meaningful societal changes if we expect stability.
The second one is linked with establishing political accountability and bureaucratic transparency. While the absence of these two is the source of rent-seeking capitalism, the most challenging choice for the government would be to hit the hardest here.
The laundered money has to return to Bangladesh to stabilise the economy partially. Anti-corruption is the key to international trade and investment in the post-electoral period, and zero-tolerance against political crime, or Kleptocracy, would be essential to return to stronger political institutions.
Just as a caution, political crime, and dissent are not synonymous. Both law enforcement agencies and the party activists should be educated on that. And we have to see how the opposition political parties deal with it with civility and political brain.
The third one has more to do with political culture. Both parties love to blame each other. The 2024 elections are a reminder that this perennial blame game didn't pay any international dividend to anyone. It is the people who decide – good, bad, or ugly.
This is even tougher for the AL electorates. They must perform a dual role as a part of the government and the voice of the public in which moral obligation toward 180 million people should often supersede political obligation to the party.
It's just that the absence of a credible opposition makes their duties more challenging. I would assume a thorough orientation to new-generation political practice, lessons, and training would be provided to the new parliamentarians. The sooner, the better.
One must remember that the time to deny economic realities, corruption, and social changes is long over. It's all about technologies in the hands of the people.
The culture of impunity and denial will only aggravate the economic divide within the society, leading to instability, mass grievance leading to anti-incumbency movements, and most certainly, economic marginalisation can always lead to the rise of crime – very basics of political science and social psychology.
I am sure the new government will be aware of these basics, and the international community will come forward to help the country out of these potential potholes.
While Orwellian fear exists in both the domestic sphere and international theatres, hope should be the best strategy. The government's relationship with the critical global powers – the US, China, Japan, and European theatre – should remain well-balanced, if not deeper.
I must warn that over-enthusiastic political remarks and attitudes toward certain countries won't be helpful in the coming days.
Nonetheless, the key to these relationships will depend on robust strategic autonomy; in turn, the international community should not see Bangladesh through the prism of a third country in the power-Bangladesh equations.
After all, Bangladesh's geopolitical rise in the Bay of Bengal region and impressive growth trajectory cannot be denied. It's time to deliver sustainable economic promises in which the new government, 180 million people, and the international community are intrinsically linked.
Shahab Enam Khan is a professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
