Padma Bridge to boost wage by 2-4% in south, lessen climate impacts: World Bank
File Photo: Mumit M/TBS
Population density and wages in the southern districts (upazilas) connected by the Padma Bridge to Dhaka city will increase significantly, and the bridge will help lessen the impact of sea level rise in the region, a World Bank report says.
It predicts that wages in the directly connected areas will increase by as much as 2% to 4% percent and the population by 6%-12%, while the time cost of connecting these two urban areas – Dhaka and Faridpur – will be lower than the cost of travel in 90% of the country.
The report, Bangladesh - Country Economic Memorandum : Change of Fabric, analysed, along with trade and economic issues, the large impact on connectivity expected from the 6.15 km bridge, which was opened to traffic on 25 June.
Though the bridge connects Dhaka with the 21 districts in the country's southwest, Barisal and Faridpur districts on the south side of the river and Munshiganj on the north side will be the main beneficiaries of the bridge, and the gains will be larger for rural parts as seen in case of the Jamuna Bridge that connected Dhaka to the northern region, predicts the report released on Friday.
"Indeed, the highest benefits of the bridge will be concentrated around Dhaka city," it reads.
Padma Bridge will bring benefits to the connected areas in the south, which are also quite vulnerable to sea level rise,the report reads. Understandably, the benefits of Padma Bridge will perhaps accrue long before the 2-metre rise in the sea level, it predicts, stressing the need for infrastructure such as embankments to protect connective infrastructures from climate change impacts.
Without investment in protection from sea level rise, Munshiganj, for example, will see a significant exodus of people, as will Faridpur on the other side of the river.
Sea level rise and associated loss of land, flooding, and salinity will affect the southern part of Bangladesh disproportionately, it says, estimating a decline of 4 to 7% in wages in the most adversely affected areas.
Making the next tier of cities
The report suggests that urbanisation will most likely move north in the very long run (over the next 100 years).
Dwelling on what future urbanisation may look like in response to sea level rise which may lead to movement of people from the south to relatively higher lands in the north, reshaping the entire economic geography of urbanisation, the report suggests steps to reduce population pressure on Dhaka city.
"For the expected surge in urban population to generate economic growth and lift Bangladesh to high-income country status, cities outside of Dhaka will have to absorb more than 50 million people," it says.
Cities will have to deal with migration induced by sea level rise, frequent flooding, and loss of land due to increased salinity and river erosion as it is feared that by 2150, the coastal areas in Bangladesh could see a rise in sea level of about 1.5-2 metres, the World Bank report warns.
As it strives to become a high-income country, Bangladesh is expected to face a major surge in urbanisation, with its urban population predicted to reach from 64 million now to 185 million in 2041, it says, quoting a United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) prediction.
"The urbanization rate will reach about 60 percent (111 million) in 2050. If Greater Dhaka city maintains its current share of the total urban population (about 37 percent), its size will exceed 41 million in 2050," it forecasts.
Greater Dhaka alone generates one-fifth of the country's GDP and becomes the hub of both formal and informal jobs. While Dhaka's economy displays dynamism, severe congestion diseconomies threaten its continued strength, it warns, suggesting steps to make the next tier of cities attractive to formal firms and skilled workers.
Some of the manufacturing activities are moving out of Dhaka and Chattogram city centres due to high living costs and congestion diseconomies-- a transition process that shows how to spread economic activities to the next tier of cities with the right policies and investments in place.
"To kickstart the economies of cities outside of Dhaka city, an important policy intervention will be to connect them to larger markets,"it suggests, highlighting major improvement in transport connectivity to integrate cities better into the domestic and international trade network.
Better Regional transport, taller buildings for Dhaka
The World Bank report recommends developing intracity as well as intercity transport infrastructure to transform Dhaka into a globally competitive metropolitan city.
"The development of transport corridors linking Asia's major cities will also help Dhaka to become a major trade hub in South Asia," it adds.
It calls for reforming urban housing policies promoting taller buildings to accommodate more people, attracting tradable activities to small and medium-sized cities, improving intercity transport connectivity and digital connectivity, widening access to basic services for firms and residents in small and medium-sized cities to prevent migration to big cities.
"Cities will have to raise their own revenues to finance their infrastructure investments and provision of services," the report says, recommending public-private partnerships and borrowing from capital markets to finance the budgets for metropolitan cities.
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