Ex-Pakistan PM Imran stuns rivals winning Punjab by-polls

Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) on Sunday (17 July) routed the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) by winning at least 15 seats in the crucial by-elections on 20 seats that got vacated after the disqualification of PTI members who had voted for Hamza Shehbaz for Punjab chief minister's office.

As per poll results, PTI won five seats in central Punjab, five in the north, reports The Dawn.

Imran Khan's party lost one seat in Lahore, three in south Punjab and one in the north in the by-elections held in 14 districts of the province.

Meanwhile, the ruling PML-N could win only four seats, as it had fielded turncoats in all the constituencies, except one of Lahore, where PTI renegade Aleem Khan had decided against contesting the by-election.

PTI chairman Imran Khan in a tweet thanked party workers and voters of Punjab for defeating, what he called, not just PML-N candidates, but the entire state machinery, especially harassment by police and a "totally biased" Election Commission of Pakistan.

He also thanked the PTI allies — PML-Q, Majlis-i-Wahdatul Muslimeen (MWM) and Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC).

"The only way forward from here is to hold fair and free elections under a credible ECP. Any other path will only lead to greater political uncertainty and further economic chaos," Khan said.

Analyst Cyril Almeida says since it became clear to Mr Khan he was going to lose the vote of confidence in parliament, he has had a one point agenda: fresh elections as soon as possible.

"Now it's within his grasp," Almeida says. "They may try and limp on…but the government is now effectively at Imran's mercy."

The result in Punjab suggest voters there wanted to send a message to the country's leaders about the economic hardships they are facing.

Prices are soaring as the government tries to tackle a foreign debt crisis, inherited in large part from Imran Khan's administration before he was ousted, reports BBC.

It was the first time in Pakistan's history a sitting prime minister had lost a vote of confidence. Mr Khan blames a US-led "foreign conspiracy" for his removal. Washington has denied the claim.

How likely are early general elections?

Journalist and analyst Benazir Shah says there was already a camp within the governing party which wanted early elections, but they were sidelined.

"We could again hear those voices within the PML-N, pushing for an immediate election. However, perhaps none of the allied parties with the PML-N would agree to an election before October 2023."

Shah believes the Punjab result clearly shows the PTI is in the ascendency.

"Imran Khan was able to secure this victory for his party without the help of the military; without businessmen, who previously funded his electoral campaigns, and without having any major electable candidates – who have dependable vote banks – in his camp," she said.

She also expressed caution about reading too much into these results and interpreting them as a bellwether for rest of the country.

"While the PTI's popularity is on a upward slope, a true referendum on where the PML-N stands in Punjab will only be possible in general polls."

How deep is Pakistan's economic crisis?

What makes life even more complicated for the ruling coalition is Pakistan's precarious economic situation.

It was forced to introduce a steep hike in fuel prices and remove other subsidies within weeks of taking office, in order to meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions to resume a $7.2b aid package.

Cyril Almeida believes that the Punjab result has essentially "driven a stake through the IMF deal".

"Had the PML-N won, the government would have been looking towards hikes in the rates of electricity. Instead, the markets have dipped on the back of obvious uncertainty."

He says if Imran Khan's team get back into office, they may even seek to renegotiate a PML-N deal with the IMF that itself was a renegotiation of an existing PTI deal.

"The economy will remain in deep trouble," he added.