Economic indicators before and after regime change: What IMF data reveals about South Asia

Economic indicators in South Asian countries have shown signs of gradual improvement following major political changes, but the economies have yet to fully recover, with GDP growth, inflation and trade figures reflecting persistent challenges.

Data compiled from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook 2026 and World Trade Organization (WTO) trade statistics tracks economic performance around leadership changes in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. These include Imran Khan's removal as Pakistan's prime minister in April 2022, Sheikh Hasina's ousting in Bangladesh in August 2024 and political transitions in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

While some indicators have improved, the data shows that economic recovery has been uneven across the region. The figures cover different periods for each country and do not, by themselves, establish that political changes caused the observed economic trends.

Pakistan: GDP growth recovered after contracting in 2023

Pakistan's economic indicators showed a sharp slowdown after former prime minister Imran Khan was removed through a no-confidence vote in April 2022. GDP growth, which stood at 6.2% in 2022, contracted to -0.2% in 2023 before recovering to 2.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, according to the data. Inflation rose from 8.9% in 2021 to 29.2% in 2023, before easing to 23.4% in 2024. Trade figures also showed a contraction, with exports declining 7.9% in 2023 and imports falling 29.2%.

Bangladesh: Growth slowed after Sheikh Hasina's removal

Bangladesh recorded GDP growth of 4.2% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025 following the removal of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Inflation increased from 9.7% in 2024 to 10% in 2025. Merchandise exports, however, registered a 1.9% increase in 2025, rising from $47.25 billion to $48.17 billion, according to the figures.

Nepal: Merchandise exports rose in 2025

Nepal saw a political transition in September 2025, when KP Sharma Oli resigned, followed by Balendra Shah becoming prime minister in March 2026. The available data records GDP growth of 4.4% and inflation of 4.1% in 2025. Merchandise exports increased 75.6% during the year, from $1.32 billion to $2.31 billion. The figures provided do not include a longer series of economic indicators to compare performance before and after the change in government.

Sri Lanka: Growth returned after a deep economic contraction

Sri Lanka experienced a severe economic contraction in 2022, the year former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned in July amid an economic crisis. GDP contracted 7.3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023 before growing 5% in each of 2024 and 2025. Inflation, which stood at 45.2% in 2022, fell to 17.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The data records inflation at -0.5% in 2025. Merchandise exports declined from $13.11 billion in 2022 to $11.91 billion in 2023. Anura Kumara Dissanayake became president in September 2024.

Maldives: GDP growth fluctuated as current account deficit persisted

Mohamed Muizzu became president of the Maldives in November 2023. The data shows GDP growth at 5.1% in 2023, slowing to 3.3% in 2024 before rising to 6.3% in 2025. The country's current account deficit stood at 16.9% in 2022, widened to 21.2% in 2023, and narrowed to 17.8% in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025. Merchandise exports declined by about 9% in 2024, while services exports increased by 12%. The figures also note the Maldives' heavy dependence on services exports.

The Maldives also repaid a $150 million loan from India in September by clearing the final tranche of treasury bills subscribed to by the State Bank of India (SBI). The repayment came even as the Indian Ocean archipelago faced pressing economic challenges.