Pakistan: Can creating new provinces fix governance?

A politically sensitive debate has reignited in Pakistan over whether its four-province system can effectively govern a country of around 260 million people.  

Ahsan Iqbal, minister for planning and development, recently called for a national political debate on administrative reform. He proposed creating 12 to 15 new provinces or setting up 160 empowered district governments to improve governance and the delivery of public services.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who first raised the idea of an administrative "reset" in July, said on Saturday that any new administrative units should be created with public support.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, meanwhile, has called for greater decentralisation and devolution of power to the grassroots.

Despite the growing calls to create new provinces, no formal decision has been taken.

Even within the ruling coalition, there is disagreement over how and when such reforms should be pursued.

There are also questions about whether creating smaller provinces improves governance, or whether devolving power directly to local governments would be more effective.

More provinces, better governance?

Pakistanis broadly agree that the country needs a more responsive and effective government, but many question whether creating more provinces is the solution.

"Smaller provinces are not a substitute for empowered local governments. Even with smaller provinces, you will still need empowered local governments to make the system effective and improve service delivery to the people," Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister and economist, told DW.

Supporters of creating more provinces argue that Pakistan's four existing provinces — Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan — have become too large and overly centralised.

Iqbal, the planning minister, has argued that the existing system has not delivered adequate improvements in health, education, and other social services.

Interior Minister Naqvi, on the other hand, has called for an administrative structure that is better suited to Pakistan's growing population.

But there is disagreement over the solution.

"Without effective local governments, whether there is one province or 25, decision-making will remain centralised at the provincial level," Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank, told DW. 

He said any proposal for new provinces or administrative units should be assessed against potential improvements in local tax collection and the costs of creating new provincial institutions, including secretariats, assemblies, and bureaucracies. 

Suleri stressed that it should also be examined whether such changes would deliver justice and public services more effectively.

Altering the political balance

"Pakistan's history suggests that empowering local governments is a better choice in terms of governance and provision of services," Muhammad Shoaib, a political scientist and assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, told DW. 

The debate, therefore, is not simply about how many provinces Pakistan should have, but whether creating smaller units would actually make the government more responsive to citizens.

Creating new provinces could also affect the political balance in the country.

New provinces would mean new governments and assemblies, while potentially changing political representation and the distribution of federal resources.

Any attempt to redraw boundaries could also reopen disputes over water, taxation, and natural resources.

The political resistance has already begun, with Sindh's provincial assembly has opposed creating new provinces or administrative units in the province, while political groups have warned against dividing existing territories.

A risky strategy?

Shoaib said dividing resources would present a major challenge, even if all provinces were reorganised at the same time.

"Even if all provinces are divided simultaneously, the division of resources like finances, water, and jobs, and special privileges for territories within provinces will be a challenge," he said.

"Challenges like these require lengthy negotiations and compromises for political consensus," he added.

The issue is therefore not only about administrative efficiency, as redrawing provincial boundaries could also redistribute political and economic power.

Ismail believes redrawing provincial boundaries would be risky, particularly in Sindh.

He said empowering existing local governments within current provincial boundaries would be a safer option.

"We can learn from the US and the southern states of India, where empowered small administrative units, while competing with each other, are more responsive to citizens and deliver better services," Ismail said.

Shoaib said Pakistan could also learn from other countries, particularly democratic systems that have empowered local governments and taken time to work through the division of large states into smaller units.

"In Pakistan's case, the risk of resistance and perpetual resentment is real. A partially finished division will aggravate existing ethnic tensions," he said.

For Pakistan, the debate is therefore about more than whether the country should have four provinces or 12 or 15.

It is about whether changing the administrative map can actually bring power, resources, and accountability closer to its people, and whether such a transformation can be achieved without creating new political and ethnic tensions.

Haroon Janjua is a journalist based in Islamabad, focusing on Pakistani politics and society.

Disclaimer: This opinion first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.