Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict intensifies

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel today (9 September), hitting a more than six-week high and breaching the symbolic threshold for the first time since 24 July, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East heightened concerns about oil flows from the region.

Brent crude futures were up $2.01, or 2.05%, at $99.93 a barrel by 0802 GMT, after earlier touching $100.19, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.49, or 1.60%, at $94.52 a barrel.

Brent crude prices have risen by a quarter since early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old US-Iran conflict.

Since the Iran war began on 28 February, Brent has surged as high as $126.41 a barrel, a peak reached on 30 April.

This week, attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi energy facilities set oil installations ablaze, threatening a significant expansion of the conflict.

The attacks also threaten crude shipments via the Red Sea, which has been a key alternative route to the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have been severely curtailed since the 28 February start of the Iran war.

Supply risks mount

"Market participants appear to be pricing in a more prolonged conflict in the Middle East as well as the risk that the latest escalation in military strikes disrupts oil flows from the Middle East," said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

"The key risk is whether the recent attacks on oil tankers lead to fewer ship-to-ship transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman, which have so far played a key role in providing oil to global markets and keeping a lid on prices."

A growing number of banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC, have raised their crude price forecasts in recent days.

In the week before a resumption in fighting on 30 August, roughly 8 million to 9 million bpd had flowed through Hormuz, double the previous week's volume, according to Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti, although more recently it had fallen below 2 million bpd. 

"I think the market is trying to treat this rise in energy prices as a one-off. It's not. This is structural. It's not going away, and it's part of what I would argue as a security premium. And it's only going to get bigger," said Jeffrey Currie, co-chairman at Abaxx Markets.

While non-opec oil producers, including the United States, Canada and Guyana, have ramped up output, the International Energy Agency said last month it expected global oil supply to fall this year by 4.3 million bpd, or about 4%.