Why India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level

India's fertility rate has fallen below the level needed to maintain a stable population for the first time, marking a significant demographic transition for the world's most populous country and raising questions about its future workforce, economic growth and political representation.

The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report shows India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime — declined to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, reports Al Jazeera.

What is the replacement fertility level?

A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is generally considered the replacement level needed to keep a population stable over the long term, without accounting for migration. When fertility falls below that threshold for a sustained period, populations can eventually begin to age and shrink.

India's decline reflects a broader trend seen across Asia and many other parts of the world, where rising incomes, urbanisation and improvements in education and healthcare have contributed to smaller family sizes.

Why is India's fertility rate falling?

Several social and economic factors have contributed to the decline.

Greater access to education for women and increased participation in household decision-making have enabled families to choose smaller family sizes. Improved healthcare has also played a role, with infant mortality falling from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 in 2024, reducing the perceived need to have more children.

The rising cost of living and the growing expense of raising children have also encouraged smaller families, while wider availability of contraceptives has improved access to family planning.

Is the decline uniform across India?

No. Fertility rates vary significantly between states.

Poorer northern states continue to record higher fertility rates. Bihar has a TFR of 2.9, while Uttar Pradesh stands at 2.6.

In contrast, wealthier and more urbanised regions with stronger health and education systems report much lower rates. New Delhi's TFR is 1.2, while both Tamil Nadu and Kerala have rates of 1.3.

These differences have widened demographic contrasts between northern and southern India.

What do fertility trends show across religious groups?

Fertility rates have declined across all major religious communities.

Data show that the fertility rate among Muslims has fallen more rapidly than among any other religious group, dropping from 4.41 children per woman in 1992 to 2.36 in 2021.

The trend indicates that declining fertility is occurring across communities rather than being confined to any single religious group.

What is India's demographic dividend?

India has been experiencing a demographic dividend since 2005, a period during which the working-age population, typically defined as people aged 15 to 64, outnumbers dependent children and elderly people.

This demographic structure can support faster economic growth by increasing the share of the population available for work and production.

The dividend is expected to continue until around 2055, but declining fertility raises questions about what happens afterwards.

What challenges could a lower fertility rate create?

Experts say India could face an ageing population in the coming decades as the proportion of elderly citizens rises.

A smaller workforce may create labour shortages and reduce the supply of workers needed to sustain economic growth. Similar demographic pressures have emerged in countries such as Japan and China, where low fertility rates have contributed to concerns about shrinking labour forces and increasing elderly dependency.

The shift could also increase demand for healthcare services, pensions and broader social security programmes aimed at supporting older citizens.

Why has the issue become politically sensitive?

The uneven demographic transition has fuelled political debate over the distribution of resources and political representation.

Leaders in several southern states argue they could receive a smaller share of federal funding despite successfully reducing population growth through investments in healthcare and education.

There are also concerns about a future delimitation exercise, which would redraw parliamentary representation based on population figures. Some southern states fear that slower population growth could reduce their share of seats in parliament relative to more populous northern states.

How are governments responding?

India does not currently have a nationwide policy aimed at increasing birth rates.

However, some states have introduced measures intended to encourage childbearing. Andhra Pradesh has announced cash incentives for families having third and fourth children, while Goa, Karnataka and Telangana have established state-funded in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) centres to support couples seeking fertility treatment.

How does India compare with other Asian countries?

Although India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, it remains higher than several other Asian economies facing more severe demographic declines.

China's fertility rate is estimated at around 1.0 children per woman, while Taiwan's stands at about 0.86 and South Korea's at roughly 0.75, one of the lowest rates recorded globally.

As a result, India still has more time than many of its regional peers to adapt to the long-term effects of population ageing, though experts say policy planning will be critical to managing the transition.