Trump did shock and awe in 2025. Reality may bite in 2026
In the second year of his second presidency, Trump will seek to turn his bulldozer into a lasting legacy. But in politics, as with his construction work, 2026 is going to involve heavy lifting
Donald Trump demolished part of the White House near the end of 2025 to make way for a giant ballroom, a fitting symbol for a president whose second term began like a political wrecking ball.
In the second year of his second presidency, Trump will seek to turn his bulldozer into a lasting legacy. But in politics, as with his construction work, 2026 is going to involve heavy lifting.
And the clock is ticking for the 79-year-old. After midterm elections in November that will be dominated by the cost of living, his Republican Party will have to contemplate life without Trump in 2028.
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"The shock and awe sent everyone on the other side reeling," William Galston, senior fellow at Brookings Institution, told AFP. "But I have a feeling that the shock and awe is wearing off."
Trump's immediate challenge will be to deliver on the promises of his first year back in the White House - an unprecedented display of presidential power that climaxed with the physical destruction of the East Wing.
In his first 100 days, Trump issued a slew of executive orders aimed at ripping apart the government and laying off federal workers, aided by tycoon Elon Musk until their relationship blew up.
He cracked down on migration, sent troops into Democratic-run cities, targeted political enemies for retribution, and used legal threats to cow businesses, universities and media organizations.
On the world stage Trump was the great disruptor yet again.
His tariffs sent the world's economies scrambling, he held summits with the strongmen leaders of Russia and China, and see-sawed on Ukraine with his notorious Oval Office ambushing of Volodymyr Zelensky.
His peace efforts brought fragile success in Gaza but war drums could be beating for Venezuela, with an American aircraft carrier now deployed off the coast.
Promises
Trump insists his approach his working. "We've had a great nine months. Now we have to do it more than a few more times, we just have to keep it going," he said last week.
But the vultures have already started hovering as year two approaches, thanks to Trump's rare predicament as a president serving non-consecutive terms.
His critics believe the first cracks have started to show, in the face of poor off-year election results, worries about affordability, and a rebellion inside the Republican Party over the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.
Looming over 2026 will be November's mid-term elections.
Democrats will be hoping to win back the House amid mounting discontent with the cost-of-living and with Trump himself, whose approval ratings keep hitting new lows.
White House officials told AFP Trump is turning his focus to the economy, ramping up domestic travel even before the end of 2025 with a series of events and campaign-style rallies.
Trump, they say, has got the message from voters worried about affordability and healthcare, even as critics in his own Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have criticized his focus on foreign peace deals.
"Candidate Trump 2024 made a series of promises to working-class Americans," Galston said. "They're going to have to get redeemed in the next 12 months."
'Explosive' 2028 looms
The question is how much Trump will be able to do.
The Supreme Court is set to hand down a series of major judgments that may not all go his way despite its conservative bent, particularly on the legality of his tariffs.
At the same time, Trump's administration effectively admitted that tariffs are raising the cost of living - it recently lowered them on goods like coffee, beef and tomatoes.
Still, the consummate political showman will keep selling his political brand.
Two major events will help him - the FIFA World Cup, and the 250th anniversary of US independence, which Trump will celebrate with a cage fight on the White House lawn.
"I'm not sure he's a lame duck yet," Garret Martin, professor of international relations at American University, told AFP.
But he predicted an "explosive" situation over Trump's succession, the battle for which will start as soon as the midterms are over.
Vice President JD Vance has already staked out his claim, while MAGA ally-turned-foe Marjorie Taylor Green has emerged as a possible rival, despite her denials.
Trump could throw further oil on the fire if he starts hinting again that he try to run for a third term in 2028, despite this being barred by the US Constitution.
"Given the president's inclination to litigate everything, I wouldn't put it past him," said Galston.
