Nearly 40% people believe BNP will form next govt: Survey

Nearly 40% people think BNP will form the next government, according to a new survey published by Innovision Consulting.

The findings of the latest People's Election Pulse Survey show BNP ahead in six divisions, Jamaat leading in Rangpur, and Awami League in Barishal.

The results of the second round of the survey, done by Private consulting firm Innovision Consulting with support from Voice for Reform and the Bangladesh Research Analysis and Information Network (BRAIN), were presented today (24 September) at the National Archives auditorium in Agargaon, Dhaka.

Innovision Consulting Managing Director Md Rubaiyath Sarwar presented the findings.

The survey shows that 39.1% of voters believe BNP will form the next government, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami with 28.1% and Awami League with 17.7%.

National Citizen Party (NCP) received 4.9%, and other parties accounted for 10.2%.

However, support for BNP, Jamaat, and NCP has declined since the first survey in March, while Awami League's share has increased.

Presenting the findings, Rubaiyath Sarwar said the study also examined voter preferences for the upcoming election.

Compared to the previous round, more respondents disclosed which party they intend to support.

Among 1,840 respondents who identified Awami League as the most suitable party, they were asked to name their second choice.

Of these, 49.5% (911) selected BNP, 17.9% (330) chose Jamaat, and 17.4% (327) said they had no second preference. 

In addition, 3.4% (63) named NCP, 1.2% (23) Islami Andolan, and 8.7% (160) Jatiya Party. A small share mentioned other alliances.

The survey was conducted between 2 and 15 September. A total of 10,413 eligible voters participated, with 69.5% from rural areas and 30.5% from urban areas. Samples were collected from eight divisions, 64 districts, and 521 primary sampling units.

BNP's expected vote fell from 41.7% in March to 41.3% in September. Jamaat's declined from 31.6% to 30.3%. NCP's share dropped from 5.1% to 4.1%.

In contrast, Awami League's support rose from 14% to 18.8%. Support for Islami Andolan also increased slightly to 3.1%, while Jatiya Party's share dipped to 0.9%.

The survey also shows a rise in voter indecision about the next national parliamentary election.

In March, 62% of respondents said they had decided who to vote for, but the figure has now fallen to 57.8%.

Regionally, BNP holds the lead in Chattogram (49.9%), Sylhet (44.7%), Mymensingh (45.7%), Rajshahi (44.4%), Khulna (43.3%), and Dhaka (40.8%). Jamaat dominates Rangpur with 43.4%, while Awami League leads Barishal with 31.9%.

Respondents were also asked about their expectations regarding the Awami League's participation in the next general election.

Of them, 45.79% said all parties should be allowed to take part, while 45.58% believed the Awami League should not be allowed to participate before facing trial.

The survey also notes demographic patterns.

BNP and Awami League draw more support from older voters, while Jamaat's base is stronger among younger voters.

BNP's support is higher among less-educated groups, while Jamaat gains more backing from voters with higher education levels.

Rubaiyath Sarwar highlighted that compared to March, Awami League's vote share rose by 4.8%, while support for most other parties declined.

Also present at the event were Professor Asif M Shahin of Dhaka University, Fahim Mashroor of Voice for Reform, Shafiqur Rahman of BRAIN, and Jaima Islam of the Daily Star.