Bangladesh won't be exempted from Trump's transactional foreign policy: Kugelman

Stressing that US President Donald Trump's foreign policy is going to be staunchly transactional, American scholar Michael Kugelman anticipates a big shift in US-Bangladesh relations, from one focused on aid and assistance for development and reforms during the last months of Biden to one that will become much more governed by a what's-in-it-for-me and what's-in-it-for-America type of mindset.

Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, also thinks that trade would remain on the table as part of bilateral ties which have remained fairly constant, and that will likely continue.

One of America's leading South Asia specialists, Kugelman delivered the keynote address today (29 January) at a seminar titled "Bangladesh-US Relations: Prognosis for the Future," held at the Foreign Service Academy in Dhaka.

Cosmos Foundation, philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group, hosted the event as part of its "Distinguished Lecture Series."

Welcome remarks at the event were delivered by Cosmos Foundation Chairman Enayetullah Khan, while the session was moderated by renowned scholar-diplomat Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, former Adviser on Foreign Affairs to the Caretaker Government in 2007-8.

Adviser Emeritus of Cosmos Foundation, also former Ambassador Tariq Ahmad Karim, President of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute Ambassador Humayun Kabir, and Professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University Shahab Enam Khan, among others, spoke as discussants.

The Trump administration will want to work with the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government, Kugelman said in his keynote, even if not with the level of closeness that they saw with the Biden administration.

"So long as the terms are deemed to be okay for US commercial interests, the Trump administration will want to build on many years of trade ties," said Kugelman, who also writes the very popular weekly South Asia Brief for Foreign Policy.

"He will likely want, and perhaps pressure, Bangladesh to reduce its dependence on China. Now that could put Yunus in a tough spot — as he'll have a strong incentive to not upset the Trump administration, given the support he will want to get, but he'll also want to ensure critical Chinese support," Kugelman said.

He noted that if Bangladesh is able to restore democracy and stability, this will encourage more private investment.

After Yunus' interim administration took office, the US government reshaped its relationship with Bangladesh to focus on humanitarian aid and development and technical assistance for reforms, to help rebuild Bangladesh restore its democracy, said Kugelman.

"I'd venture to say that in the second Trump administration, the US relationship with Bangladesh may change the most of any US relationship in South Asia. There's going to be a fair amount of policy continuity from Biden to Trump elsewhere, in other countries in the region, because the Indo Pacific policy will continue to guide US approaches to South Asia," he said.

Given how the US had emerged as a key backer of Bangladesh's rebuilding efforts, he mentioned, this is not a position that Dhaka would like the new administration to take.

"It's no coincidence that Yunus, after having harshly criticized Trump previously, issued a very warm and detailed congratulatory note to Trump after his election victory," Kugelman said.

Engaging the diaspora

Kugelman advised tapping into the Bangladeshi diaspora in the US: "It's not a huge one, but it's a substantive one."

He said there are successful Bangladesh-Americans working on high levels in all the sectors that are in need of support in Bangladesh—higher education, tech and IT, agriculture, manufacturing and so on.

"If you can tap into these diaspora members to transfer technology, share expertise, or provide financing in different sectors in Bangladesh, then you can strengthen the economy," Kugelman said.

Because of sub-regionalisation trends in South Asia, the expert said, Bangladesh has been working more closely in recent years with some of its neighbours on connectivity and transport projects—as seen with the new Bangladesh-India-Nepal electricity sharing deal.

On multilateral military cooperation, Kugelman noted that Bangladesh has participated in the AMAN naval exercises, hosted by Pakistan, and in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, among other groupings.

Perhaps there is a role for the US in these activities, he said, adding that there is a role for Bangladesh in the Combined Maritime Forces, a large US-led naval partnership.

"These collaborations, in some cases, would help the US advance Indo Pacific goals, and they would also build more trust between the US and Bangladesh," Kugelman said.

Cosmos Foundation Chairman Enayetullah Khan said there is a general expectation that the Trump Presidency may historically reshape the trajectory of US relations with other countries marking a noteworthy shift away from traditional diplomacy or commitments taken for granted to a transactional approach placing at their heart the question: "What's in it for the United States and its people, economically and strategically?"

If a Bangladesh-US relationship can be forged that will advance Bangladesh's quest for development, and the US aspirations for peace and stability, it can even become a model for others.

Dr Iftekhar said the return of President Trump to the White House points to a 'trifecta' in foreign policy.

Talking about the three elements, he said first, national self-interest is to be achieved through not by spreading so-called liberal values like democracy, pluralism and human rights which might entail foreign entanglements in a milieu where friends and foes alike would be equally subservient to perceived US interests.

Second, he said, foreign relations would be entirely transactional, including making deals that would always put America first and foremost, often solely, which would also imply selling arms to allies rather than expanding military footprint abroad.

Third, Dr Iftekhar said, security would be advanced by denying foreign powers close proximity to America, a replay of the Monroe doctrine of circa 1823 that could be called 'Donroe Doctrine' circa 2025 under Donald Trump.

Ambassador Humayun Kabir said, "We need Chinese support for our development. We also need US support for our development. Now the big elephant here is how we handle India and what role India will play."

He thinks maintaining a bilateral relationship with the US without India would be Dhaka's number-1 strategic priority. "That would be an important element for Bangladesh."

Recalling his time as ambassador in Washington, he advocated for engaging with US companies in the private sector, as a way to gain influence in the US capital.

"Back then [2012], we had signed a deal to sign several aircraft from leading US manufacturer Boeing, in a deal worth $2 billion," he said, adding, "At the time, Boeing ensured that Washington's doors opened for us."

Shahab Enam Khan insisted there was a need to 'debunk the Trump-paranoia' in different layers of government, and also among political parties, that itself is the source of much of the polarization witnessed. 

He asserted there was scope for the need to diversify Bangladesh's defence purchases by looking at the US as a potential supplier.

"The US and Bangladesh must know that they share enough political capital, social capital, economic capital to bridge any gaps that may open up in the relationship," Khan said.

While on the subject of foreign policy, he drew attention to the major change in how it is now being crafted in Bangladesh, following last year's 5 August uprising.

"After 15 years, you can see how our foreign policy particularly vis-a-vis India is forced to incorporate the will of the masses, rather than being the exclusive domain of the government or foreign ministry," said the expert on Bangladesh's foreign relations.

He also called for shoring up Bangladesh's consulate in Washington.

Delivering the closing remarks, Ambassador Tariq Karim said Bangladesh's geographic location between India and China, at the heart of the Indo Pacific narrative, means it becomes a peacemaker or a peace-inducer, and that would be best.

"India is all around us, and China is more or less splitting the distance away from us. We cannot afford to clash with one or the other or take sides. Nor can we take sides with any competing power in the great power competition taking place," he said.