November 2023: No opposition for ‘festival of democracy’ as country turns battleground for foreign powers

By now, it was confirmed that the BNP and 15 other registered parties agitating for a non-partisan polls time government had boycotted the parliamentary election slated for 7 January. 

After all, the time for joining the electoral race had ended on the last day of November. 

Bangladesh was now firmly on the path to have another one-sided "festival of democracy" at a time when it was plagued by an economic and diplomatic crisis, the likes of which the country had never seen before.   

Yet, the topmost priority of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was to hold the scheduled election regardless of its quality, global outcry against democratic backsliding, and possible consequences of her aggressive diplomacy, which may have pushed Bangladesh further into a narrow geopolitical corner.

Hasina arranged her political chess in such a way that the election appeared "participatory" on the surface, as the number of participating parties and candidates was larger than in the 2014 election, which was held amid a boycott by the BNP-led opposition alliance.

In the 2014 election, only 12 out of 39 registered parties participated, fielding fewer than 1,000 candidates, resulting in uncontested elections in 153 out of 300 parliamentary seats. This unprecedented number of uncontested seats, more than the majority required to form a government, triggered widespread criticism.

The 7 January election, though set to be held amid a boycott by the BNP and other opposition parties, appeared to be a numbers game. The number of participants looked "impressive," with 30 out of 44 registered parties filing 2,741 nominations. A record number of independent candidates, 747, mostly aligned with the ruling Awami League, indicated no shortage of candidates.

To ensure the polls seemed "participatory," Hasina made a calculated move. On 26 November, during a meeting with her party's parliamentary nomination seekers, she directed those who would not get party tickets to run as independent candidates. This was a clear shift from the party's previous stance, where it had taken punitive measures against dissidents who ran against party-nominated candidates. According to the AL constitution, no member was allowed to contest elections against the party's official nominee.

This time, however, Hasina overlooked her party's charter, allowing AL leaders to run as independents. But the unprecedented number of independent candidates caused concern within the ruling party, as many of these candidates had strong local followings and could potentially defeat official AL nominees. Internal conflicts at the grassroots level between supporters of party nominees and independent candidates also threatened to escalate. To manage this, the party decided to control the independent candidates. Some would be asked to withdraw from the race to ensure the party's candidates won smoothly, with punitive actions threatened against those who refused. The election administration could also be used to disqualify certain independent candidates.

The former prime minister's government also focused on ensuring a peaceful polling day with a high voter turnout. In line with this plan, a large number of law enforcement officers were deployed across the country, maintaining tight control over the situation. Many opposition leaders and activists were detained in the months leading up to the election, with some convicted in old political cases. By maintaining this tight control, Hasina's government aimed to hold what it called a "free and fair election," as there was virtually no risk of losing the 7 January polls.

By holding such an election, Hasina intended to demonstrate to the US and its Western allies, who had expressed concerns about human rights and the election atmosphere, that her government could indeed conduct a "free and fair election."

On 28 November, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader reiterated this goal, stating that holding "a free, fair, and credible election" was their objective, and by arranging a peaceful election, they sought to prove their commitment.

But the reality on the ground reflected no signs of a free and fair election. The election was set to be one-sided as the almighty Awami League (AL) faced no strong challengers in around 270 of the 300 seats. In the remaining 30 seats, candidates from the Jatiya Party, known as the 'government-friendly' main opposition party in parliament since 2014, were prospective challengers to the AL candidates, but the party was not strong enough to prevent Sheikh Hasina from becoming prime minister for a fourth consecutive term.

Some top leaders of smaller parties were reportedly given assurances by the ruling party's high command that they would be allowed to win at least once in their lifetimes. In the absence of the BNP, the main challenger to the ruling AL, leaders of smaller parties appeared to be "important" players in the race. Hasina had warned her party's nomination aspirants that this time she would not allow anyone to be elected uncontested, as had happened in the 2014 election.

This time, the ruling AL also nominated candidates for the seats of top leaders of its 14-party alliance partners and asked them to field candidates separately. Responding to a question on seat-sharing among allies, Obaidul Quader stated on 28 November, "December 17 is the last date for nomination withdrawal. We will observe and make adjustments in the meantime. Everything will be finalized by 17 December."

The ruling AL planned to leave some seats for senior leaders of the Jatiya Party and its alliance partners, either by asking AL candidates to withdraw or by disqualifying them through election administration. One thing was clear: everything would be kept under control, and the election would be well-managed.

Bangladesh in an unprecedented crisis

Ahead of the 7 January parliamentary election, Bangladesh was plagued by an unprecedented three-pronged crisis—political, economic, and diplomatic. The cumulative effect of these crises had pushed Bangladesh to a tipping point.

The country's economy, already under pressure due to the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, was now bearing the brunt of the political crisis over the 7 January national election. At least four days each week in November saw either blockades or hartals enforced by opposition parties calling for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation to allow elections to be held under a non-partisan caretaker government. Despite law enforcement agencies and ruling party supporters' efforts to clear opposition from the streets, the lack of normalcy crippled businesses and people's livelihoods.

Inflation was at a decade-high and continued to rise, squeezing the living standards of the majority in Bangladesh. Various monetary and fiscal measures taken by the government and the central bank failed to alleviate the situation. Bangladesh could not take advantage of dropping global commodity prices due to a foreign currency crisis. According to the central bank, the forex reserve had plummeted to less than $20 billion by November, with the usable reserve being less than $16 billion—enough to cover less than three months of imports.

Rampant allegations of graft and anomalies in the banking sector, along with abnormal cost escalations in various government mega-projects, worsened the country's economic health. The lack of accountability and transparency in public expenditure had kept Bangladesh consistently at the bottom of the corruption perception index by Transparency International for years.

Human rights and labor rights had been major concerns for over a decade. Despite this, the government remained determined to hold the 7 January election at any cost to cling to power. Development partners continued to voice concerns over the rights situation and the upcoming election, which was set to be one-sided once again.

The USA had already imposed the first round of visa restrictions on individuals responsible for undermining the democratic election process and warned of fresh punitive measures, such as trade sanctions for labor rights violations and further visa restrictions. A report released by the European Union on 21 November dealt another blow to exporters. The report reiterated concerns over human rights and urged Bangladeshi authorities to improve in areas such as freedom of expression, assembly, and civil society space. It called for investigations into alleged torture, ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances.

The EU's renewed focus on rights came at a time when the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington DC alerted the commerce ministry to the potential consequences of the latest US labor rights policy. The embassy's letter, dated 20 November, warned that Bangladesh could be a target of the recently released US memorandum on labor rights and that the issue should be "taken into cognizance with priority."

Everything is fine. No worries?

The US warning had made exporters worried, as the USA was one of the major export destinations for Bangladesh's RMG products. Instead of taking the warning seriously to improve the labor rights situation, the government chose to ignore it, prioritizing the upcoming election. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen publicly denounced the warning, claiming that the government was not concerned about any sanctions.

After the US unveiled its visa policy at the end of May, Hasina, on 3 June, stated that Bangladeshis should not worry about sanctions and visa curbs. Again, on 3 October, she reassured the public, saying there was no need to worry about sanctions. Her party's General Secretary, Obaidul Quader, said on 26 September that no visa policy or sanctions could stop Hasina from holding the election in line with the current constitutional provisions.

Even after the US labor policy was rolled out in mid-November, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, on 19 November, said there would be no issue if the US imposed sanctions on Bangladesh. However, the Bangladesh mission in Washington, in a letter to the commerce ministry on 20 November, raised concerns. The letter indicated that the latest US policy on labor rights was serious enough to warrant Bangladesh's attention and should be taken seriously by concerned stakeholders.

The timing of the US labor policy coincided with violent protests in Bangladesh's ready-made garment (RMG) sector, a vital part of the country's export economy, with exports reaching over $46.99 billion in FY23, centering on a hike in workers' minimum wages. The poor labor rights situation also risked jeopardizing Bangladesh's exports to the EU, the largest destination for RMG exports. Bangladesh, the main beneficiary of the EU's "Everything But Arms" trade program, faced increasing scrutiny from the EU parliament, which questioned whether Bangladesh should continue to enjoy these benefits given its poor labor rights conditions.

On 29 November, local media broke the news of the Washington embassy's letter. Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi confidently asserted that the US and its European allies' efforts to hinder Bangladesh's garment exports would ultimately prove futile. "Politics and business are distinct spheres. They [the US and European countries] will not do anything that jeopardizes Bangladesh's garment industry," he said while filing his nomination for the upcoming parliamentary election.

The minister also urged apparel entrepreneurs not to worry about the US memorandum on labor rights announced on 16 November. Upon his return from the USA, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas had a meeting with Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen on 30 November at State Guesthouse Padma to discuss ongoing developments in bilateral relations. The meeting, which began at 11 a.m. and lasted for 30 minutes, also included Bangladesh's Ambassador to the United States, Muhammad Imran. After the meeting, neither Haas nor Foreign Secretary Momen spoke to reporters.

Later that day, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said there was nothing to worry about regarding the US "Presidential Memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labor Standards Globally," published earlier in the month. He emphasized that Bangladeshi products were competitive in quality, price, and delivery times, which secured their access to the US market. He expressed confidence in Bangladesh's private sector, describing its exporters as smart and dynamic.

The US Presidential Memorandum, rolled out on 16 November, declared that the US would hold accountable those who threatened, intimidated, or attacked union leaders, labor rights defenders, and labor organizations, using sanctions, trade penalties, and visa restrictions. The all-important question remained: could labor rights be ensured without also ensuring democratic and human rights in the country?

In such a situation, a fair and credible election appeared to be the best remedy for Bangladesh. As Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal rightly stated on 27 November, "If we want to save our democracy, protect our economy and future, the election must be fair, acceptable, and credible." His remarks were widely accepted as a necessity for Bangladesh. He added, "That is why we want a free, fair, and credible election."

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet colleagues repeatedly assured the public that the election would be free and fair. The Chief Election Commissioner and other officials continuously reassured the nation that the Election Commission was working diligently to hold free and fair elections. However, the rampant violation of the electoral code of conduct on the last day of filing nomination papers indicated that the EC had limited control, although it had issued show-cause notices to a handful of candidates.

The Election Commission, led by CEC Kazi Habibul Awal, and the election-time government, headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, faced increased scrutiny and doubt. Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said on 27 November that both Bangladesh and the US believed in democracy and wanted free and fair elections in Bangladesh. He noted that the US did not have unrealistic demands, only calling for fair elections, a goal Bangladesh also shared.

Heading towards another model election?

As the nation prepared for another election, tensions were high. The day CEC Kazi Habibul Awal announced the election schedule, a war-like atmosphere prevailed in the capital and other cities. A heavy deployment of law enforcement was stationed near the Election Commission building to prevent unrest. Law enforcement agencies were also placed on alert nationwide as the BNP and other opposition parties enforced blockades across the country.

The government had taken a hardline stance against the BNP since the party's 28 October planned rally in the capital was thwarted by law enforcement. Thousands of BNP leaders and activists, including top leaders Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, and Mirza Abbas, were arrested and imprisoned. In November alone, several hundred BNP leaders and activists were sentenced by the "government-controlled lower judiciary" on various charges. Other senior leaders, avoiding arrest, went into hiding. Despite continuing to announce blockades and hartals, the party struggled to bring protesters to the streets, as they were quickly dispersed by authorities.

The case of BNP Vice Chairman Shahjahan Omar became a glaring example of how the ruling party allegedly tried to divide the BNP. After securing bail in an arson case, Shahjahan Omar resigned from the party and submitted his nomination to run in the upcoming national elections as an Awami League candidate. A dozen other BNP leaders, allegedly under pressure, departed from the party to join smaller groups or run as independents.

As the BNP continued its agitation, senior government leaders, including PM Hasina, were accused of fueling violence. On 3 November, Hasina encouraged her party members to retaliate against arsonists by throwing them "into the same fire," stating, "The hand that sets fire to anything will have to be burnt." Though Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader condemned threats against US Ambassador Haas, tensions remained high.

Despite the escalating situation, CEC Kazi Habibul Awal maintained, in a 16 November address, that a congenial atmosphere for free and fair elections prevailed in the country. His colleague, Election Commissioner Brig Gen (retd) Md Ahsan Habib Khan, reiterated on 27 November that the EC was sincerely trying to hold a participatory, fair, and credible election. However, the ground reality suggested the EC had limited control.

On the last day of filing nomination papers, widespread violations of the electoral code were observed, especially among ruling party candidates, including ministers and MPs. For instance, the law minister was seen leading a procession in his constituency, a clear violation of the code. While show-cause notices were issued to some ministers and MPs, no action was taken against others who breached the code.

The EC also remained silent as political parties, including the ruling Awami League, sold nomination papers without involving their grassroots units, a clear breach of the Representation of the People's Order (RPO). According to the RPO, grassroots units should send a panel of prospective candidates to the central parliamentary body for consideration. However, PM Hasina, who led the AL's central parliamentary board, ignored this provision. On 26 November, she used her official residence, Gono Bhaban, as a venue to meet with party candidates, further violating the code, which bans the use of government facilities for partisan purposes.

The situation prompted New York-based Human Rights Watch to conclude that "A free election is impossible when the government stifles free expression and systematically incapacitates the opposition, critics, and activists through arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearance, harassment, and intimidation." On 26 November, HRW senior Asia researcher Julia Bleckner stated, "Instead of stoking violence and jailing her critics, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should call for an immediate end to arbitrary political arrests and make clear that enforced disappearances, torture, and killings by security forces will not be tolerated." The HRW also called on foreign governments to insist that Bangladesh uphold its international obligations to human rights.

Earlier, on 13 November, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed serious concerns about the excessive use of force, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances in Bangladesh. The OHCHR recommended that Bangladesh publish a list of all recognized places of detention and ensure that no one was held in secret or incommunicado detention, as stated in its Universal Periodic Review published on 13 November.

Bangladesh: The battleground of superpowers

Critics said Bangladesh had gradually been sliding toward autocracy since Hasina came to power in 2009 in an election held under a caretaker government backed by the military. To cling to power, she managed the elections in 2014 and 2018 and achieved easy wins. International observers noted that both elections were seriously flawed. The 2014 election was boycotted by all opposition parties after the ruling party removed the caretaker government provision from the constitution in 2011. Although opposition parties participated in the 2018 election, media reports revealed that in some places, votes were cast the night before, and many voters were barred from voting.

Both the controversial elections were held under her government after scrapping the nonpartisan election-time government in 2011. As the ruling Bangladesh Awami League established control over the administration, law enforcement agencies enacted a series of laws to stifle freedom of expression since 2014, most notably the Digital Security Act of 2018, which was later replaced by the Cyber Security Act. The judiciary failed to act, and the country incrementally slid toward becoming an elected autocracy, according to political analysts. The impunity enjoyed by AL activists and the support of the business community exacerbated the situation.

The US and its allies continuously called for free and fair elections in Bangladesh and insisted that the authorities maintain their international obligations to uphold human rights. However, China and Russia extended an olive branch to Hasina at a time when her government was under tremendous pressure from the USA, EU, UN, and international rights organizations to hold a free and fair election.

Both China and Russia made statements denouncing the US for what they called "interference" in Bangladesh's internal affairs. They also urged the USA, a rival of both countries in the race to dominate the world order, to leave Bangladesh to decide the next election.

India's role was also noteworthy. It remained silent for a long time, but on 10 November, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told a press conference in New Delhi that India "respects the democratic process in Bangladesh." "When it comes to developments in Bangladesh, elections in Bangladesh, it is their domestic matter. It is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future," Kwatra said, describing India "as a close friend and partner" of Bangladesh.

Such remarks from India were not in line with what it had done before the 2014 parliamentary election. At that time, then-Indian Foreign Secretary Sujata Singh flew into Dhaka and held talks with parties, allegedly persuading then-Jatiya Party chief HM Ershad not to quit the January 5 election in 2014.

India's foreign secretary's remarks emboldened the ruling AL camp, as it felt India was also supporting the Hasina government in times of crisis. Within hours of these comments, former Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Md. Touhid Hossain told Desh TV News that India's stance would bring relief to the Hasina-led AL government. "We know the Hasina government wants to get done with an election, which would not be free and fair. They were possibly in some dilemma because they weren't sure if India was backing them. It is also possible that they already knew of India's support. In any case, [the government] would feel relieved with India's response," Hossain said.

The USA, however, made its stance clear when on 13 November, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu dispatched letters calling for "dialogue without preconditions" among the three major parties — the Awami League, the BNP, and the Jatiya Party. In response, the ruling Awami League stated that engaging in dialogue with opposition parties was not feasible due to time constraints.

Russia claimed that US Ambassador Peter Haas was interfering in Bangladesh's internal political affairs, a claim denied by a US State Department spokesperson, who reiterated that the US supported free and fair elections and would continue to engage with the government, opposition, civil society, and others.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, on 22 November, claimed in an embassy brief that US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas had met with a high-ranking representative of the local opposition at the end of October and reportedly discussed plans to organize mass anti-government protests. Zakharova also claimed that the American ambassador promised information support if the authorities used force against participants in "peaceful demonstrations." These assurances were reportedly made on behalf of the embassies of the United States, Britain, Australia, and several other countries.

China criticized the U.S. for interfering in Bangladesh's election. The deepening relationship between China and Hasina-led Bangladesh — whose location on the Bay of Bengal made it an important partner for the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy — was unlikely to sit well with Washington.

None of the superpowers wanted to concede defeat in Bangladesh. Public perception was that the US would impose sanctions either before or after the 7 January election. The European Union might follow the US's lead in taking measures. It would be difficult for the Bangladesh economy to bear the massive shock if RMG exports were hurt in the US and Europe.

Catch the next part of this exciting series on Saturday!