Why ICC prosecutor seeking arrest warrant against Netanyahu and what it means for Israel

The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor's office has requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defence chief and three Hamas leaders for alleged war crimes.

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said he was seeking warrants against Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for crimes including causing "starvation", "wilful killing", and "extermination and/or murder" during Israel's war on Gaza.

Now, it will be up to the ICC's pre-trial judges to determine whether there is sufficient evidence to issue warrants.

The timeframe can vary with weeks and even months sometimes elapsing between the point at which the ICC prosecutor requests an arrest warrant, and judges ruling on it.

What does ICC do?

Opening its doors in 2002, the ICC is the world's only independent court set up to probe the gravest offences including genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.

It is a "court of last resort" and only steps in if countries are unwilling or unable to investigate cases themselves.

It hit the headlines in March 2023 when it issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war crime accusation of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. The court also issued a warrant against Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia's presidential commissioner for children's rights, on similar charges.

Israel is not a member of the court and does not recognise its jurisdiction, but the Palestinian territories were admitted as a member state in 2015.

Why the arrest warrant?

In 2021 the ICC opened an official investigation into allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the occupied Palestinian territories.

In October last year, ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said the court had jurisdiction over any potential war crimes carried out by Hamas fighters in Israel and by Israelis in the Gaza Strip.

Five countries in mid-November called for an ICC probe into the Israel-Hamas war, with Khan saying his team had gathered a "significant volume" of evidence on "relevant incidents".

But ICC teams have not been able to enter Gaza or investigate in Israel, which is not an ICC member.

Nevertheless, Khan did visit Israel in November "at the request" of survivors of the October 7 Hamas attacks. He then travelled to Ramallah in the occupied West Bank to meet senior Palestinian officials.

Rumours that the court was about to take action had swirled for weeks, prompting Netanyahu to publish his reaction beforehand.

Israel would "never accept" the ICC's "outrageous" rulings, Netanyahu said in a message on X, formerly Twitter. "We will not bow to it."

In his statement seeking arrest warrant against Netanyahu, Khan said, "We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day."

What does this mean for Israel?

As Israel is not a member of The Hague-based court, and even if the arrest warrants are issued, Netanyahu and Gallant do not face any immediate risk of prosecution.

But Khan's announcement deepens Israel's isolation as it presses ahead with its devastating war on Gaza. The threat of arrest could make it difficult for the Israeli leaders to travel abroad.

If granted, the warrant means that technically any of the 124 ICC member states would be obliged to arrest Netanyahu if he travelled there.

But while the warrant could complicate some travel for Netanyahu, the court has no mechanism to enforce its warrants, relying on its members to play ball.

As Israel's war on Gaza continues into its eighth month, the ICC prosecutor going public saying there should be arrest warrants can influence Israel's strategy in war.

Karim Khan may be trying to force an end to the violence by speaking out as early as possible and trying to force efforts for a ceasefire.

Domestically, Netanyahu's leadership is already a subject of intense political debate within Israel. An ICC arrest warrant would exacerbate divisions, potentially leading to political instability.

Supporters may rally behind him, seeing the charges as unjust, while opponents could use the warrant to push for his resignation.