Hope grows for reset in Dhaka-New Delhi ties after election

Despite political and diplomatic tensions, Bangladesh-India relations are expected to improve in the coming days as Bangladesh prepares to transition to a political government through the general election scheduled for 12 February 2026, said politicians, diplomats, policymakers and business leaders.

The optimism follows BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman's return after more than 17 years and the subsequent death of his mother, former prime minister and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, which prompted senior diplomats from neighbouring countries, including India, to visit Bangladesh and pay their respects with messages of a potential reset in relations.

Bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India have remained strained since the political changes in Bangladesh in August 2024, when the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government was ousted in a student-people-led mass uprising.

Following the death of Khaleda Zia on 30 December 2025, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar visited Dhaka the next day to deliver Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's condolence message to Tarique at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban.

This marked his first visit to Bangladesh since August 2024.

"On arrival in Dhaka, met with Mr Tarique Rahman, Acting Chairman of BNP and son of former PM of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia. Handed over to him a personal letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi," Jaishankar wrote on his verified Facebook page after the meeting.

After handing over the formal condolence message, Jaishankar attended Khaleda Zia's funeral as the representative of the Indian government.

"Expressed confidence that Khaleda Zia's vision and values will guide the development of our partnership," Jaishankar wrote in his post, adding that he conveyed deepest condolences on behalf of the government and people of India.

The BNP, on its verified Facebook page after the meeting, said, "Neighbouring India has sent a condolence message expressing deep respect at the death of Khaleda Zia, hailing her as the 'mother of democracy' and a 'symbol of courage and struggle', an uncompromising leader committed to safeguarding independence and sovereignty."

Meanwhile, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited the High Commission of Bangladesh in New Delhi and signed the condolence book, expressing profound sorrow at the passing of Khaleda. He also said, "Our thoughts are with her family and the people of Bangladesh"

Foreign Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Dhaka sees Jaishankar's visit to Bangladesh positively. 

Khaleda Zia is not only a popular leader in Bangladesh but also highly respected in South Asian countries. Representatives of South Asian countries attended her funeral.

'India recognising reality, ready for a reset'

Humayun Kabir, former diplomat and current president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), told TBS said the letter from Indian PM Narendra Modi to Tarique Rahman, along with the visits of Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Dhaka and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, signal that New Delhi is recognising the reality in Bangladesh and is ready to rebuild and recalibrate relations with Dhaka.

Kabir, who has served in diplomatic postings in both India and the US, said Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh and S Jaishankar are India's top three policymakers. 

However, he added that Dhaka must also take a positive approach to reshaping relations with New Delhi. India's positive disposition toward the next parliamentary election in Bangladesh would signal its readiness to restore normalcy in bilateral relations in the coming days.

Zia Hyder, adviser to the BNP chairperson and a former senior World Bank official, also viewed the visit of S Jaishankar to Dhaka and his meeting with Tarique Rahman positively, describing it as an ice-breaker with the potential to rebuild trust between Dhaka and New Delhi.

He said that BNP believes in balanced and mutually respectful relations with New Delhi. BNP also expects India to stop border killings, ensure fair sharing of river waters with Bangladesh, refrain from intervening in the country's internal affairs, and work toward the peaceful resolution of other long-standing unresolved issues. 

Bangladesh and India are neighbours and should work together in the greater interest of South Asia, he said, adding that BNP believes in regional cooperation in the greater interest of the people of South Asia and in strengthening the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc).

"As Bangladesh and India are neighbours, both countries will work together in the greater interest of the region. The tensions between neighbours are common. The world has seen tensions between the US-Canada, US-Mexico, Thailand–Cambodia, Germany-Russia, Iran-Pakistan, Afghanistan-Pakistan and so on," a top BNP leader told TBS.

As Bangladesh prepares for its national elections in February, several Indian states – including Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu – will also go to the polls. Political tension in both countries is expected to intensify ahead of the polls.

The Indian government had endorsed the "controversial and one-sided" parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh in 2014, 2018 and 2024 under the Awami League government, which contributed to anti-India sentiment among Bangladeshi citizens.

Bangladeshi tourist arrivals in India, which fell sharply in 2025 following a downward trend that began in mid-2024, are expected to rise significantly in 2026 after Bangladesh's election, according to diplomats from both countries and leaders of the Tour Operators Association of Bangladesh (Toab).

After the 2024 political transition in Bangladesh, the Indian High Commission here had limited standard tourist visas, prioritising medical visas. By September 2025, visa processing began to stabilise, with 1,500–2,000 visas issued daily.

Despite lower numbers, Bangladesh remained one of India's top five source markets in 2025, frequently ranking second after the US, with medical tourism accounting for a significant share.

According to the Tourism Board of India, 1,696,735 Bangladeshi tourists visited India in 2024, compared with approximately 2.12 million in 2023. The decline in 2025 was largely due to regional political unrest and visa restrictions.

Biz leaders push for stronger trade ties with India

Business leaders reiterated their commitment to strengthening economic ties, mutual cooperation, and sustainable partnerships between Bangladesh and India in the coming days.

Members of the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IBCCI) expressed this at the organisation's 18th annual general meeting (AGM) held recently in Dhaka.

According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), India was Bangladesh's eighth-largest export market in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Bangladesh exported goods worth $1.76 billion to India in 2024-25, up 12.43% from $1.57 billion in 2023-24. During July-November 2025 of the 2025-26 fiscal year, exports to India stood at $760 million.

India's exports to Bangladesh were valued at $11.46 billion in FY25, up from $11.06 billion in FY24.

'Bangladesh prioritises trade with India based on competitiveness, not politics' 

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed recently said that Bangladesh would continue importing essentials such as rice from India if prices remain competitive, regardless of the political discourse between the two neighbours.

He stressed that Bangladesh has never imposed punitive trade measures against India for political reasons. "We don't believe in using trade as a tool for political retaliation. Our priority is to ensure supplies at the best possible price for our people," he said.

Salehuddin emphasised that economic interests are managed separately from political rhetoric. Trade decisions, he noted, are guided by competitiveness and national interest rather than diplomatic sensitivities. "If importing rice from India is cheaper than sourcing it from Vietnam or elsewhere, it makes economic sense to buy from India," he added.

On Bangladesh-India relations more broadly, Salehuddin acknowledged that political rhetoric, particularly during heightened political activity, can sometimes appear tense. However, he insisted such statements do not reflect the actual state of bilateral ties. 

"Political rhetoric is common, especially in public discourse. But that doesn't mean relations are deteriorating. Diplomacy involves many sensitive and nuanced aspects that aren't always visible in public statements," he said.

He underscored the importance of avoiding bitterness between the two nations and noted that attempts to instigate problems from external sources are not in either country's interest. "Both sides remain mindful of national sentiments and the need for mutual respect," he added.

Salehuddin also highlighted the active diplomatic engagement of Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, who maintains communication with individuals and institutions with strong ties to India. He concluded by reaffirming Bangladesh's commitment to regionalism and constructive engagement with all neighbouring countries.