Will there be a fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

On 20 May, Lai Ching-te took office as Taiwan's fifth elected president. 

"Taiwan independence forces will be left with their heads broken and blood flowing after colliding against the great China achieving complete unification," the Chinese spokesman Wang Wenbin told the press at the onset of China's two days of large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan. They called the drills "punishment" for so-called "separatist acts." 

On Friday, the drills — when China staged mock missile strikes and dispatched fighter jets carrying live missiles along with bombers – came two days after the self-ruling island swore in  Lai Ching-te.

A vocal supporter of Taiwan's independence, the democratically elected leader Lai Ching-te called on Beijing to cease its intimidation tactics and accept its democracy. To that end, he is also vehemently loathed by China. 

Calling him a "troublemaker" and implying Lai Ching-te's pro-independence stance may lead Taiwan to war, China insists on its ultimate agenda to bring Tainwan under "One China Policy."

The statements and the drills indicate that China is eager to test the resolve of Taiwan and its biggest defender — the United States. 

It is not the first time Beijing has threatened Taiwan with war. Rather, it has become a routine since 2022 when China carried out its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan. At the time, former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island. 

But has the relationship been so tense always? History would like to differ. 

The crux of the conflict lies in Beijing viewing Taiwan as its territory for nearly 75 years while Taiwan claims itself an independent democratic state. In this decades-long tension, the US also plays a crucial role through its support for Taiwan. 

In light of what seems as renewed tension between Beijing and Taipei, we look at the US' role, China-Taiwan's history and how Lai Ching-te intends to confront China. 

Three's a crowd 

The China-Taiwan issue represents a triangular relationship rather than a bilateral one with the US' direct involvement. However, Washington has always somehow tiptoed to maintain ambiguous diplomatic strategies.

In 1950, the US forged a defence pact with Taiwan and provided ongoing support to the nationalist government while refusing to acknowledge the existence of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Following the Sino-Soviet split, during which the communist alliance between the PRC and the Soviet Union broke down, the US saw an opportunity to strengthen its ties with China.

In 1979, the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, hoping that China could serve as a counterweight to the Soviet Union. 

It was then the US acknowledged the "One China policy" and recognised the PRC as the sole government of China. As a necessary condition to normalise relations with the PRC, the US promised not to have any official ties with the government of Taiwan.

However, in the same year, the Taiwan Relations Act was enacted. It was also a part of this shift, which promised that the US would provide Taiwan with enough "defensive articles" to ensure its self-defence capability.

To date, the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent nation and maintains political ties with China. But again, it is bound by law to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, according to the 1979 Act.

And it does so. The US has remained Taiwan's most important ally and biggest arms supplier. Last month, the US Congress allocated $1.9 billion for Taiwan's weapon supplies and training to counter threats from China. 

In 2023 alone, Taiwan ordered $1.55bn in weapons and services from the US, including infrared tracking systems for F-16 jets, munitions, spare parts for aircraft and technical support.

But there remains ambiguity – regarding whether and how it would protect Taiwan if attacked. The Taiwan Relations Act leaves questions about the possibility of the US doing more than just providing weapons and intelligence such as taking direct military action to defend Taiwan. 

President Joe Biden, however, has indicated more clearly that his administration would defend Taiwan. His first public statement in support of Taiwan came in October 2021 and the latest was in April 2024. (At the same time, the White House, as of this writing, is yet to make a statement regarding Taiwan's new president). 

But, the conflict in Ukraine provides a cautionary tale for Taiwan. It has shown that there might be limits to how much domestic support the US has for defending other democracies even when they share similar values.

Taiwan's geography and economy are the two most important factors shaping the US' pull towards the island. The nation lies along a chain of islands (often referred to as the 'first island chain') that include several US-friendly territories (such as Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, etc) of crucial importance to its foreign policy.

Over time, the US's continuous support for Taiwan triggered China. One example is, of course, China's largest-ever military drill around Taiwan following former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022.

There's more to this geopolitical landmine. 

The US is involved in a tech war with China. Against this backdrop, a significant portion of the world's electronics, including phones and electric cars, rely on computer chips produced in Taiwan. By one estimate, a single Taiwanese firm, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), captures over half of the global market.

The US CHIPS and Science Act (2022) allocated $52 billion in subsidies to encourage semiconductor manufacturers to relocate to America. After the US banned American companies from exporting high-end (such as AI, military-grade, etc) microchips to China in 2023, it started to incentivise major players in the semiconductor industry to relocate to America. 

The major chip-making factories are based in Taiwan. If the high-end microchip foundries are relocated to the US, this will weaken Taiwan's 'silicon shield.' The shield is Taiwan's ability to bring the US to protect its vast microchip industry in case China invades. And Taiwan knows this well. 

If the US becomes self-reliant on microchips, Taiwan would lose its bargaining chip. And, for this reason alone, it should be cautious about the US' words of assurance. 

A brief tug-of-war timeline 

To understand the conflict between China and Taiwan, we have to walk through a historical timeline. Taiwan came under Japanese rule in 1895 after the First Sino-Japanese War. 

In 1945, after Japan lost the Second World War, China took the island when a nationalist party 'Kuomintang' led by Chiang Kai-shek was in power. 

The relationship between China and Taiwan fractured following China's civil war between communist and nationalist forces. The latter was backed by the United States. 

In 1949, they were defeated by Mao Zedong's Communist Party in a civil war on the mainland. The Chinese nationalists – who had lost in the civil war – fled to Taiwan and claimed the island's rulership. Since then, it has been self-governed, with the threat of a Chinese invasion looming ever since.

In 1954, the Chinese forces started shelling Taiwanese islands off the coast of China, which triggered the First Taiwan Strait Crisis. 

Later, in 1958+, a naval battle occurred between the two countries, where American military leaders pushed for a first-use nuclear strike on China on behalf of Taiwan. It is widely regarded as the first serious nuclear crisis and the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. 

The turning point was when the US shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. In the 1980s, Taiwan entered a new era of democracy, concluding almost 40 years of Kuomintang martial law. Since then, the majority of people in Taiwan have abandoned the notion of 'retaking China.' 

In 1996, China tested missiles off Taiwan to deter voters in the island's first democratic presidential election. It kick-started the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. 

Afterwards, China mostly tried to entangle Taiwan into a web of economic ties and dependencies to muddy Taiwan's path to independence. 

China proposed the so-called 'one country, two systems' option, which it said would allow Taiwan significant autonomy if it agreed to come under Beijing's control. But Taiwan rejected the offer. The same system has been at play in Hong Kong but China keeps diminishing Hong Kong's autonomy, which does not inspire confidence in the Taiwanese minds. 

The Chinese Communist Party uses history to justify its claim over Taiwan. In contrast, the Taiwanese refer to the same history to assert that they were never part of the modern Chinese state established after the 1911 Xinhai Revolution nor the People's Republic of China founded by Mao in 1949.

Today, only 12 countries officially recognise Taiwan. Meanwhile, a wealthier and more influential China now exerts pressure to ensure that more countries do not recognise or support Taiwan.

How will Lai Ching-te defend Taiwan?

Fast forward to the present day. 

With lessons learned from the Russian-Ukraine war, Taiwan has adopted asymmetric warfare capacity, also known as the porcupine strategy — where the disadvantaged power tries to exploit its enemy's weakness and evade its strengths.

According to experts, President Lai Ching-te is expected to spend more on missiles and drones as part of strengthening the porcupine strategy.

Taiwan has already invested heavily in larger weapons systems in recent years. From 2019 to 2023, under former president Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's government increased defence spending by an average of nearly 5% per year. 

Taiwan is still waiting for the delivery of $19 billion worth of purchased US military equipment, including fighter jets, tanks, missiles and smaller weapons.

At the same time, Taiwan's population (23 million) and active military personnel (169,000) are dwarfed by China. From the number of aircraft to the defence budget, China beats Taiwan by a wide margin in every statistic. If China chooses to invade Taiwan, it will lead to an uneven war, for sure.

That being said, geography is a natural advantage for Taiwan's defence. "Invading Taiwan or mounting a successful blockade would be the most complex military operation in modern history, involving the synchronisation of air, sea and land forces, along with cyber warfare," writes David Sachs, an Asia fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations.

There is also a demographic change at play. Unlike the older generation who think of themselves as Chinese exiles, the younger generation thinks that they are Taiwanese. A 2018 survey finds that 70% of young people in Taiwan said they would fight if China's military invaded their island, which China has threatened to do if Taiwan's government formally declared independence. 

An increasing number of Taiwanese people feel more closely tied to Taiwan than the mainland. In another survey in June 2023 by National Chengchi University, nearly 63% of the island's residents regarded themselves as exclusively Taiwanese.

The sentiment is encapsulated by the speech given by Freddy Lim, a heavy metal musician and face of pro-independence youths, in the Taiwanese Parliament in 2018, when he was a member of the parliament: "A lot of young Taiwanese see Taiwan as a country, a different perspective from their parents. They were born in a democratic, free society, and China is a threat to us."

He is now a crucial member of Chiang-te's party, whom the new Prime Minister himself urged to join. This is an indicator that Chiang-te wishes to bring pro-independence young leaders to his ranks. 

Now, how Lai manages the security of Taiwan and carries out military reforms will be key in his presidency, experts say. "This reality means that a key measure of success of the Lai administration will be how far he can push forward the necessary reforms to improve Taiwan's ability to defend itself and deter Chinese aggression," Amanda Hsiao, of the International Crisis Group think tank, told AFP.

Presumably, China would continue its drill practices to keep the new president under pressure. Lai Ching-te is unlikely to make an immediate response but time will tell how the renewed tension in the region finds resolve and preempts a fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.