What's in store for Trump's second coming?

The year is 2024, the month November. The dust has settled on a contentious election, and Donald Trump stands once more on the steps of the building his supporters had stormed in January, 2021 to keep him in power. 

Hand on the Bible, the twice impeached president takes the oath of office for a second term. The air crackles with a mix of anticipation, trepidation, and a flicker of disbelief. What lies ahead for the US, both domestically and on the global stage, as it embarks on this uncertain voyage with a familiar yet unpredictable captain at the helm?

Well, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has solidified his hold on his party's electorate after his New Hampshire primary win against Nikki Haley, his only other major Republican rival left in the race. And almost all poles show he is leading the sitting president, Joe Biden.

A nation further divided

Trump's return could exacerbate the already deep chasm between Democrats and Republicans. His fiery rhetoric and divisive policies, like the construction of a wall on the US-Mexico border, could alienate moderates, fuel cultural wars, and erode trust in democratic institutions.

As political scientist Rachel Kleinfeld of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told The New York Times, "A Trump presidency would likely see him double down on his signature brand of populism and grievance politics, further alienating Democratic voters and exacerbating existing social tensions."

Donald Trump ordered to pay E Jean Carroll $83.3 million, will appeal verdict

Congressional gridlock would likely become the norm, with partisan bickering stalling progress on crucial issues like healthcare, climate change, and infrastructure. The Hill quotes Bruce Bartlett, a former Reagan administration Treasury official, "Trump has shown a willingness to bypass Congress when it suits him, and a second term could see him further entrench his authoritarian tendencies." 

War games

While Trump's first term witnessed no major new wars under his watch, his approach to existing conflicts was marked by unpredictability and an undercurrent of isolationism. He often abandoned multilateral agreements, preferring bilateral deals negotiated on his own terms. 

Trump's foreign policy has been a volatile equation, characterised by impulsive decisions and a transactional approach to alliances. A second term could be anything from retrenchment to reckless interventions driven by personal whims rather than strategic considerations.

"He prefers transactional agreements with other powerful world leaders and considers his reputation for unpredictability one of his greatest assets in international affairs. This makes him a disconcerting figure for American allies," wrote Walter Russell Mead, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College in the Wall Street Journal.

According to media reports, he is contemplating a US withdrawal from Nato or, at the very least, scaling back American involvement with the trans-Atlantic defence pact. Which leads us directly to the Ukraine question.

Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, shares a robust relationship with Trump, suggesting a likelihood of policy continuity and a reduction in critique concerning civil liberties. But experts also fear he may adopt a more aggressive posture towards countries like Iran, potentially escalating tensions and fuelling conflict.

Ukraine and Israel: Contrasting vibes

The US is already out of money for Ukraine, unable to send the ammunition and missiles in Kyiv. Trump has on multiple occasions said he can end the war in 24 hours and the peace process might involve Ukraine giving up territory.

Combining such statements with his warm relation with Vladimir Putin and reluctance to criticise the Kremlin raise concerns about his commitment to supporting traditional allies such as Ukraine. 

Experts say all signs indicate a second Trump term will embolden Russia to escalate the conflict. Trump has already hinted to the European Union that if a larger war breaks out in Europe they are on their own. "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you."

Trump 2.0 could have devastating consequences for the region and exacerbate tensions between the US and its traditional allies in Europe.

Trump's pro-Israel stance, exemplified by his controversial decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, will likely continue in a second term. However, this comes at the cost of heightened tensions with Palestinians and the broader Arab world. 

His January 2020 peace plan for the region, unveiled with his longtime ally Benjamin Netanyahu at his side, in his own words, would have "given Israel most of what it has sought over decades of conflict while offering the Palestinians the possibility of a state with limited sovereignty."

Trump has also used the Israel-Hamas War to reinforce his positions on other issues remote from the conflict itself, particularly his hostility to Muslim refugees. In a recent rally Trump said, "If you hate America, if you want to abolish Israel, if you don't like our religion -- which a lot of them don't -- if you sympathise with jihadists, then we don't want you in our country, and you are not getting in." Not the words of a man who is going to bring peace to the region.

A disengaged Donald Trump and the global south

Trump's "America First" approach to foreign policy and his scepticism towards international development and aid programmes are likely to alienate many nations in the Global South. This could further erode US soft power and influence, creating space for other nations like China and Russia to step in.

According to foreign policy analyst Michael Doran, also a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, "A Trump presidency risks pushing developing countries closer to rival powers, weakening the US-led global order and hindering progress on pressing global challenges like climate change and poverty." 

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House casts a long shadow of uncertainty over America's future. Domestically, it could mean a deepening partisan divide, legislative gridlock, and even threats to democratic institutions. Internationally, it could signify a withdrawal from alliances, unpredictable foreign policy, and strained relationships with key allies. The Global South might also feel the chill of a disengaged America, turning towards other emerging powers.

While the man himself makes the future more uncertain than ever, one thing is sure – Trump 2.0 is going to be the Trumpiest ride yet.