Is this a RAW new deal?

The relationship between India and Canada has reached a historic low, as both nations have expelled their leading diplomats over the assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil. 

On 14 October, Canadian police announced that it had identified the highest-ranking Indian diplomat in the country as a person of interest in an assassination plot. They claim to have credible evidence connecting Indian agents, including India's high commissioner to Canada, to the murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil in June 2023.  

India has dismissed the Canadian claims and responded by expelling six senior Canadian diplomats, including the acting high commissioner.

This marks a new chapter in the ongoing conflict surrounding the June 2023 death of Nijjar, who was shot and killed in his pickup truck after departing from the Sikh temple he led in Surrey, British Columbia. 

A citizen of Canada and originally from India, he played a significant role in advocating for the establishment of a separate Sikh homeland, Khalistan, which marked him as a terrorist in India's books. 

In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that there were credible allegations suggesting connections between India's government and the killing. India refuted the claims then but stated that Nijjar was engaged in "terrorism." 

The assassination of a Sikh leader in Canada brings attention to India's premier external spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, better known as RAW. If what the Canadian authorities say is true, then the act would count as a clear violation of Canadian sovereignty. 

Hitting a RAW nerve

Some analysts have begun to speculate whether India has developed a formal assassination program targeting individuals abroad, comparable to that of the Israeli Mossad or the American CIA. The Diplomat, a current affairs magazine, notes that while India has not explicitly confirmed such operations, the assassination of Nijjar bears similarities to other killings of 'militants' connected to attacks on India, suggesting a pattern of extraterritorial actions. 

There are also striking similarities between the assassination of Nijjar and the killing of another Sikh separatist, Paramjit Singh Panjwar of the Khalistan Commando Force, who was shot in Lahore on 6 May 2023.

The calculated nature of these attacks — with both individuals being executed by gunmen on motorcycles, dressed in plain clothes and utilising small firearms for swift, precise killings — is difficult to overlook and indicates a trend that transcends simple chance.

Both Nijjar and Panjwar, previously at an impasse in their separatist efforts, discovered a new energy in their mission after the farmers' protests and the revival of pro-Khalistani feelings. Their increased presence in the media and demands for armed opposition to India, along with their requests for global support for Pakistan against India, placed them in a precarious position.

Another Khalistan supporter and Chief of the banned Khalistan Liberation Force, Avtar Singh Khanda, died in a hospital in UK's Birmingham last year. He was responsible for attacking and removing the Indian flag from the Indian High Commission complex in London on 19 March 2023. 

Some reports suggested Khanda died due to poisoning, while some claimed he had blood cancer. 

"These are not normal deaths or law and order issues. I can only say that NSA [National Security Advisor] Ajit Doval is not a person who can sit quietly watching the Indian flag being taken down from the Indian High Commission premises in London," Ex-RAW officer RK Yadav told Indian-Canadian news outlet EurAsian Time.

A show of RAW strength?

Founded in 1968, RAW has traditionally focused on intelligence gathering in South Asia. It was primarily involved in countering Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, and China's influence in South Asia. 

However, its focus on the Khalistan separatist movement, which seeks an independent Sikh homeland, has persisted, even though the movement has mostly faded in India. The Khalistan issue now survives mainly among diaspora groups in countries like Canada, the UK and the US. 

This enduring focus has driven RAW's operations far beyond India's borders, culminating in the assassination of Nijjar, a prominent figure in the Khalistan movement.

Experts suggest this move is indicative of India's growing willingness to build its image as a geopolitical powerhouse that pursues high-value targets regardless of their locations, using methods akin to those employed by the likes of CIA and Mossad. 

"Today, India is seen by the world as a 'hard State'; a rising superpower which unhesitatingly retaliates against the enemy with stunning force. The new 'hard State' label is a byproduct of National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval's 'defensive offence' doctrine, in which you go and attack the place where the offence is coming from," writes Abhijit Majumder, Editor of India based news outlet Firstpost.

Mossad, for instance, has a long history of targeting individuals it deems a threat to Israeli security, including the assassination of Palestinian targets on foreign soil.

Between 2019 and 2023, over a dozen of India's avowed enemies had been killed on foreign soil. There was a series of killings in Pakistan, linked to the infamous hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC-814 on 24 December 1999. Beginning in 2018, those suspected to be connected were methodically taken out by enigmatic killers using a remarkably similar approach to the one that ended Nijjar's life.

"Why do you think Indian agencies didn't have such capability earlier? Of course, it was there. What has changed now is the emergence of India as a powerful nation and go-ahead from the government in power," Former RAW officer NK Sood said while speaking to EurAsian Times.

The RAW truth

Despite what many in India see as a sign of growing Indian might, the cost of pursuing targets outside of home soil has been high.

In the immediate aftermath of Hardeep Singh Nijjar's death, Pavan Kumar Rai, who led the Canadian branch of RAW, was very publicly expelled from the host country. 

According to Reuters Later that year, the US Justice Department alleged an Indian government official directed an unsuccessful plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on US soil. 

In the wake of this, the San Francisco station chief of RAW was virtually dishonourably expatriated from the US, while the replacement of the head for the Washington, DC office was obstructed reports the Indian outlet The Print. 

The Print also reports in November 2023, The London deputy head of operations of RAW was asked to be removed. Even though national security officials in the UK provided no reasons for requesting the RAW officer's removal from London. 

Citing intelligence sources The Print reports, that British intelligence had expressed dissatisfaction on several occasions with RAW's increasing involvement in Sikh diasporic politics in the country under former chief Goel, a Punjab-cadre IPS officer who previously worked against Khalistan terrorists.

Experts in intelligence and international relations have offered varying perspectives on RAW's growing influence. Some argue that the agency is merely adapting to the changing geopolitical landscape and that its actions are consistent with the behaviour of other major intelligence agencies. 

But some express concern if RAW continues in the bold path it is heading, there is a fair chance they might end up alienating India's allies

Nasif Tanjim. Sketch: TBS