Netanyahu’s true colours: Ceasefire was never part of the plan
Netanyahu walked back on the ceasefire agreements, citing Hamas's refusal to release more hostages. But the lack of a written commitment to end the war clearly suggests Israel never really intended to stop its military campaign in Gaza
On 18 March 2025, the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which had held for nearly two months since 19 January, shattered as Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, killing over 400 Palestinians in a single night. This marked the deadliest day in the enclave since the early weeks of the conflict that erupted in October 2023.
Israel's resumption of war defies a singular explanation. Officially, it is about hostages and Hamas's intransigence — a narrative backed by the Trump administration.
Yet Israel's aid blockade and stalled talks suggest otherwise.
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Domestically, Netanyahu's coalition stability and personal political survival appear pivotal, with the offensive aligning with far-right demands and deflecting internal crises. Militarily, Israel seized a strategic window to strike at Hamas, bolstered by rested forces and replenished arsenals.
"There's no other way to explain it: Israel knowingly violated the ceasefire agreement with Hamas — with American approval — because it didn't want to fully meet the terms it had committed to two months ago."
A fragile peace
The ceasefire, brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt, took effect on 19 January 2025, after 15 months of devastating war sparked by Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage.
Israel's retaliatory campaign had, by then, claimed over 48,500 Palestinian lives, per Gaza health officials, leveling much of the enclave and displacing 90% of its 2.3 million residents.
The truce's first phase saw Hamas release 33 Israeli hostages — women, elderly and humanitarian cases — in exchange for Israel freeing some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and partially withdrawing forces from populated areas like the Netzarim Corridor.
Yet, the agreement was structured in three phases, with the second — intended to begin negotiations for a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal — due to start 16 days after phase one.
This never materialised. Israel accuses Hamas of stalling on further hostage releases, while Hamas claims Israel reneged on commitments by imposing a total aid blockade on Gaza starting 2 March — a move condemned by the UN and Arab states as a violation of international law. By early March, the ceasefire was in limbo.
In retrospect, Israel may have never intended to leave Gaza or stop the war. When both sides agreed to a ceasefire, Israel refused to state in writing that it would not resume hostilities after the first phase.
Israel's official rationale
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the resumption of war as a necessity to secure the release of the remaining 59 hostages, of whom fewer than half — 24 adult men — are believed to be alive.
In a televised address on 18 March, Netanyahu declared, "Hamas could have released hostages to extend the ceasefire but instead chose refusal and war," echoing a statement from his office that blames Hamas for rejecting mediation proposals from the US and others.
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar reinforced this, telling reporters, "In the past two and a half weeks, we found ourselves at a dead end — no fire and no return of hostages — and that's something Israel cannot accept."
David Mencer, a spokesman for Netanyahu's office, told a news conference that the strikes were "fully coordinated with Washington", signalling US tacit approval — a point underscored by acting US Ambassador to the UN Security Council Dorothy Shea's remarks blaming Hamas for the breakdown.
But does it hold much water?
Israel's official explanation does not seem very accurate. If anything, this assault puts the lives of hostages in even more danger.
In fact, the forum of families of captives in Israel said, "their greatest fear has come true" and blamed their government for giving up on the captives.
"The Israeli government chose to give up on the hostages," the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement. "We are shocked, angry and scared about the deliberate disruption of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas," it further said.
Amos Harel, a defense affairs columnist for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, wrote, "There's no other way to explain it: Israel knowingly violated the ceasefire agreement with Hamas — with American approval — because it didn't want to fully meet the terms it had committed to two months ago."
As per the Israel-Hamas agreement, the 16th day of the ceasefire was intended to mark the beginning of negotiations for a permanent end to the war. However, Israel refused to engage in those talks as long as Hamas remained in control of Gaza.
The exact terms of the deal were never officially disclosed. While it was negotiated with input from the incoming Trump administration, it was finalised under the outgoing Biden administration. Israel believed it had room to renegotiate the terms under President Trump.
Last week, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff introduced a new ceasefire proposal that called for the release of more hostages before starting end-of-war talks. Israel asserts that it is resuming military action to pressure Hamas into accepting these revised terms.
Hamas, meanwhile, accused Israel of violating the ceasefire first. In a Telegram statement, the group called the airstrikes a "blatant violation of all international and humanitarian conventions", alleging Israel had undermined the truce by suspending aid and refusing to enter phase two talks.
Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim, speaking to NPR from Qatar, urged the US to "intervene immediately to stop this aggression," insisting Israel had never intended to honour the deal's progression.
Hamas pointed to the 2 March blockade — halting 4,200 weekly aid trucks that had eased Gaza's humanitarian crisis — as evidence of bad faith, a claim supported by UN relief coordinator Tom Fletcher, who lamented the "destruction of modest gains" from the truce.
Hamas also highlighted the timing of the strikes, launched at 2:10 am on 18 March during ceasefire talks in Doha, as deliberate deception. A senior Hamas official, speaking anonymously to NPR, suggested Israel's goal was to pressure Hamas into concessions without committing to ending the war.
Netanyahu's troubles at home
Netanyahu has a deadline: His government must pass a national budget in two weeks, or face the prospect of his government collapsing, triggering new elections.
Netanyahu's coalition, holding a slim parliamentary majority, faced collapse when far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir quit in January over the ceasefire, decrying it as a capitulation to Hamas.
His Jewish Power party announced its return to the government on 18 March, hours after the strikes began, bolstering Netanyahu's grip on power.
Amos Harel argued this was no coincidence, asserting Israel violated the ceasefire to appease hardline allies like Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who threatened to exit if the truce persisted. Both favour reoccupying Gaza and re-establishing settlements evacuated in 2005.
Netanyahu's fresh offensive in Gaza has also diverted attention from his controversial decision to dismiss the domestic security service Shin Bet chief, which has sparked street protests.
The move is part of his effort to shift blame for Israel's failure to prevent Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack on security agencies while deflecting criticism against himself. It follows a Shin Bet investigation into allegations that Netanyahu's aides secretly advised Qatar during the war.
"Netanyahu's true objective appears increasingly clear: a gradual slide toward an authoritarian-style regime, whose survival he will try to secure through perpetual war on multiple fronts," wrote Harel.
Military opportunism
Israel's military preparedness also likely played a role. The Guardian reports that during the ceasefire, Israel replenished ammunition stocks — partly via US deliveries — repaired equipment, and rested troops, enhancing its capacity for a new offensive.
New intelligence on Hamas leaders, who had reasserted control in Gaza per humanitarian officials, provided fresh targets. The military's swift execution — naval barrages and dozens of warplanes hitting Gaza within 10 minutes — suggests weeks of planning, as confirmed by Netanyahu's office to NPR.
Analysts note a low likelihood of salvaging the truce
