Iran-Pakistan conflict: Is a regional war brewing?

In response to Iran's claim of striking 'terrorist headquarters' in Pakistan, Pakistan has initiated retaliatory airstrikes, targeting what they describe as terrorist hideouts. This marks the first missile attack on Iranian soil since the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988. And this is not an 'out of nowhere' event.

From northern Iraq to Lebanon to Pakistan to the Red Sea, an array of strikes and counter-strikes over the last several days are compounding fears that Israel's assault on Gaza could escalate into a full-blown regional war.
 
In just the past few days, the US has carried out strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have resumed their attacks on container ships in the Red Sea. Iran has struck what it said was an Israeli spy headquarters in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, as well as targeting anti-Iran militants in Pakistan and Syria. Meanwhile, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel have escalated the intensity of fighting across the borders.

 
So, looking at the bigger picture, Pakistan's recent retaliation to Iran's assault adds to the potential of a wider war.
 
In an escalation of hostilities in the region, Pakistan on Thursday conducted airstrikes inside Iran, responding to Iranian forces' attack on what they claimed were militant camps in Pakistan the day before.
 
The Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry stated that its forces carried out 'precision military strikes' against alleged terrorist hideouts in southeastern Iran. Iranian officials reported nine casualties, including four children.
 
Before that, in less than 24 hours, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missile strikes on three neighbouring countries, citing 'revenge' for civilians and troops killed in recent weeks. After targeting several locations in Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan on Monday, the IRGC directed missiles and drones at Pakistan on Tuesday, claiming it was against the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl.
 
Pakistan condemned the attack as "illegal" and "completely unacceptable," asserting that it resulted in the deaths of two children and warning of "serious consequences." Despite ongoing tensions, Iran and Pakistan maintain challenging but operational relations, occasionally marked by clashes in border areas involving groups like Jaish al-Adl.
 
Some reports suggest that Iranian officials informed their Pakistani counterparts about the attacks, though Islamabad's reaction may suggest otherwise. An unprovoked surprise attack on the territory of a nuclear power appears to be a step too far for a regime known to be more vocal than aggressive.
 
What prompted Iran to launch attacks on Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria?
 
Iran's assault on Pakistan is one of a series of attacks. Iran's military actions against Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan were initiated in retaliation for attacks on its territory or against Iranian interests. 

Tehran asserted on Tuesday that it launched missile strikes on Islamic State militants in Syria as a response to a bombing that resulted in numerous casualties during a commemoration for the prominent commander Qassem Soleimani in central Iran on 3 January. Soleimani, tasked with establishing Iran's network of proxy paramilitaries in the Arab world, was killed in a US drone strike in 2020.
 
Additionally, Iranian strikes on Iraq on the same day targeted what Iran claimed were Israeli spy sites, a claim refuted by Iraq. Israel had previously eliminated key figures from Iran's Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, and from Tehran's elite force, the Revolutionary Guards, in Lebanon and Syria.
 
In the case of Pakistan, Iranian state media reported that Iran demolished two bases belonging to the Baluchi militant group Jaish al Adl, based in Pakistan. This group had claimed responsibility for a December attack that resulted in the deaths of Iranian security forces.
 
Iran's display of military strength, employing ballistic missiles on targets over 1,200 km away, coincides with US and UK airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The attacks by the IRGC, seemingly unrelated to the Israeli offensive in Gaza, are viewed by some as part of a broader regional power struggle between Iran and Israel, with potential connections to events in Gaza.
 
Critics in the US blame the Biden administration for emboldening the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" (a military alliance built by Iran over four decades to oppose Israeli and American power in the Middle East) through its approach to Iran. They argue that in seeking a nuclear agreement, Biden appeased the Iranian regime, leading to a loss of deterrence against Iran and its regional allies.

Escalating regional conflicts
 
The US military conducted additional strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen, and the Biden administration on Wednesday re-designated the Houthis as "Specially Designated Global Terrorists." Critics argue that these actions come too late, blaming Biden's previous delisting of the Houthis in February 2021 for the group's increased strength and attacks on American ships in Iran's direction.
 
Now, the latest Pakistani strike aimed at what Iran described as militant training camps and a response to domestic terrorism. This marked the first time in over 30 years, since the end of the Iran-Iraq war, that Iran's airspace had been violated by another country's attacks.
 
But Iran has been deploying its proxy forces against Israel and its allies since the conflict in Gaza erupted in October following Hamas-led attacks on Israel. These actions, along with Iran's attacks on other regional countries, heighten the potential for increased instability in the Middle East. Iran's efforts to project strength come in response to perceived vulnerabilities following recent attacks within its borders.

The Houthi militia in Yemen, considered one of Iran's proxies, has drawn attention with its assaults on vessels in Red Sea shipping lanes connected to the Suez Canal. The Houthi leader declared on Thursday that direct confrontation with the United States would strengthen the group, vowing to persist in attacking commercial ships. In response, the United States targeted Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen for the fifth time in a week, underscoring the escalating volatility in the region and heightened US involvement.
 
Tensions have also escalated along Israel's northern borders, where clashes with Hezbollah, another Iran-backed group, have occurred. When questioned about Israel's focus on countering Iran's proxies rather than Iran itself, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Who told you we weren't attacking Iran? We're attacking!"
 
On the other hand, Pakistan, facing political and economic challenges, expressed a desire on Thursday to avoid further escalation in its conflict with Iran. The Pakistani military emphasised the brotherly relationship between the two countries, advocating for dialogue and cooperation to resolve bilateral issues. Pakistani officials refrained from directly accusing Iran in carefully crafted statements, mirroring Iran's rationale for its strikes and emphasising the targeting of separatists across the border.
 
Sistan-Baluchestan, the province targeted by Pakistan, is characterised by its ethnic Baluch and Sunni minority and stands as one of Iran's most economically deprived regions. The provincial governor's office, as reported on Iranian state television, indicated that Pakistan's drones struck locations in villages near the border, resulting in the destruction of four residential homes. Images and videos in Iranian news media portrayed crowds gathered around mud-brick houses that had been reduced to rubble in the attacked villages.
 
Iran's central government has a history of conflicts with ethnic Baluch residents and militant separatist groups operating in the region, occasionally engaging in terrorist activities. In recent days, Iranian officials have emphasised their military capabilities, showcasing their strength against adversaries like Israel and terrorist organisations.
 
The ongoing crisis represents the first instance of the Axis of Resistance—an alliance formed by autonomous militant Islamist organisations in opposition to perceived Western and Israeli influence in the Middle East—mobilising on various fronts. Many experts posit that Iran aims to engage with the US and Israel without directly entering into conflict. While this approach may curtail violence, it does not guarantee its cessation.
 
This strategy comes with inherent risks; the slightest miscalculation by any involved party could potentially ignite an uncontrollable regional war.