How climate change will reshape future Bangladesh

What does Bangladesh look like in, say, 2050 - amid a human-made changed climate? 

Nicholas Kristof, an American journalist, explored the scenario in waiting in a New York Times piece. Based on his experience at Kutubdia, a southern island close to Cox's Bazar - Kristof painted an absolute dystopian picture. 

Reading his piece will make you think that by 2050, Bangladesh is surely turning into a climate abyss. While such exaggeration may sound silly and intentional, there is no doubt that in the coming decades, Bangladesh is likely to look different than how it is today - a country with changed food habits, living conditions, and increased internal migration. 

As big a threat extreme climate is, experts warn that human activities and unsustainable, hardline approaches to tackle climate change will pose serious problems as well. 

However, if research-based, timely efforts are taken to curb the impacts down, a 2050 Bangladesh may still be a fairly liveable place.

But what if no meaningful measures have been taken while global political forces keep promising big and do not deliver? With this in mind, we aim to provide a simplistic picture of how climate-ridden Bangladesh may be reshaped in the future along five key areas.

No more a country of six seasons

Local and international research suggest that climate effects are shaping Bangladesh broadly through two fundamental phenomena - changing weather patterns and rising sea level along the southwest [coastal areas].   

The changing weather is manifested by an increased number of days having higher temperatures than expected.

A 2023 study showed that in Bangladesh - from 1949 to 2013 the temperature has risen at a rate of 0.13C per decade [about 0.9C in total]. 

Without reversing climate effects, the nationwide temperature will rise by 1.4C by 2050. The number may look small to you, but it becomes significant in terms of total accumulated heat. 

In Dhaka, the temperature rose to 40C many times between April and July in 2023 - something unprecedented even in the context of the naturally warm tropical summers. This year, if the ongoing heatwave is any indication, it will only get worse.    

El Nino was a reason last year, but scientists warned that the effect of El Nino was very much amplified by human-made climate changes. 

And while human activities such as exponentially increasing highrises, dangerous lack of drinkable-water reservoirs and fewer trees have contributed heavily, these hot days in 2023 and 2024 fell in line with the worldwide trend of climate induced heat waves.

If business-as-usual, by 2050 in Bangladesh, hotter and extended summers of 40C and beyond may become the new normal - as it already is in Northeast India. 

The spring may only feel like a prelude to the incoming summer and not a separate season. 

Inconsistent rainfall is another climate setback Bangladesh may have to accommodate to. 

A small illustration of that was observed this year in March. The rainfall in Dhaka surpassed the average of 65.8mm by a large margin.

A 2021 multinational research revealed that from 1950 to 2021 in the months of May to October - the monsoon rainfall decreased, but episodic extreme rainfall increased fourfold in Bangladesh. 

Now imagine that, times much, in the coming decades.

Weather extremities also mean winters are likely to be shorter, but much colder than what Bangladeshis have been used to for so long. To that, we already had a small glimpse when the temperature hit record lows last winter - even in Dhaka. 

Health woes

With extreme heat comes a generic feel of being unwell and untimely health concerns - exhaustion, dehydration, heat strokes, and vector borne diseases.

There is growing evidence that the dengue, a vector borne disease, in 2023 exacerbated in tropical countries primarily due to climate induced unnatural seasonal variation. It may be likely that in the coming decades, dengue will be a more severe threat than now throughout the entire year.

We may also see a time when deaths, especially among middle-aged and older adults, due to heat extremities will be much, much higher. 

A decline in mental health in general is also looming, as a 2023 Lancet study warned. Simply put - you do not expect people to behave reasonably when the temperature consistently hits 40C and beyond. 

Food security in jeopardy

The southwest coastal areas are much affected due to sea-level rise and increased salinity in lands. The causes include climate change and less freshwater flow from the upstream, due to human factors.

Consequence of this has been felt for many years by now, in terms of crop production difficulties due to untimely flash flooding, frequent storms and cyclones coming from the Bay of Bengal, and increasing soil toxicity.

The southwest belt consists of 30% of the total cultivable land and has been home for various rice types including saline-resistant variants, and vegetables. 

But according to a government report, 30% of the 7.1 million acres of coastal lands have been affected by salinity to variable degrees. Meanwhile in the north, extreme heat waves ruin rice crops.    

Amid such a circumstance, The World Bank estimates that by 2050, Bangladesh is set to lose one-third of the agricultural GDP.

Whether this number will be reality or over-speculation is to be seen. However, there is no doubt that our food security will be in much jeopardy. 

Right now, we are ranking as the third highest food importer of the world, contradicting the government's narrative of "self-sufficiency in food". 

In a worsened climate, we can only expect to go up in the ranking. 

 Internal migration 

The influx of climate victims, especially from the southwest coast, to Dhaka, is clearly tied to the aforementioned struggles. According to WHO, the current number is around 7.1 million, which is estimated to be about 13 million by 2050. 

Internal migration damages the migrants' livelihood, education and wellbeing as well as a city's overall ecosystem. This will only exacerbate.

They are forced to live in slums and their helplessness is often exploited to turn them into cheap labourers. Their professional and personal development is ignored. 

The worst case scenario is that the current humanitarian crisis due to internal migration will only be amplified. The social, cultural, and economic chains that run the big cities will face enough stress that could lead to a near-collapse.

Economic slowdown

Daily activities will have to be adjusted to survive heat - perhaps for good in some instances. In cities, shortened and flexible working hours may become commonplace - regardless of the economic hierarchy.

The RMG sector may suffer an undesirable blow. By 2030, about 5% of the total working hours is estimated to be lost in Bangladesh due to high heat. Unless preventive measures are in place by 2050, this number is surely getting higher.   

An obvious effect is economic activities having lesser growth - as erratic weather patterns "slows down the economy", according to a recent Nature Climate Change study.  

This is already happening before our eyes. In 2022, the GDP was depleted by 9.4% thanks to climate impacts. In the coming years, it will fluctuate between 7 to 12% - if business-as-usual. 

We see where this trend leads us to by 2050 - a country of hundreds of millions of people with a borderline broken economy. 

Climate survival is in our hand 

It is not to say that the fate of Bangladesh is turning into a climate hellhole. But there is every chance she may. 

The solutions are in our hands.  

Imagine, the global leaders take steps to cap the temperature rise by any means, while Bangladesh vows taking her climate initiatives to the next level. We may still have fairly hot yet tolerant summers, and less harsh winters. 

Innovative approaches are a must when it comes to agriculture and irrigation. In fact, climate adaptation is already in place in many parts of the southwest. 

Rethinking shrimp production, which by the way is in decline, may be a key to reverse the salinity rise. Our policy on rainwater reservation should get a booster.

Internal migration may be spread around the small towns and not only big cities. In Mongla, this initiative is seeing success.

In short, the fittest survives, and people of Bangladesh are known for championing climate adaptation. 

The government must be at the forefront in efficiently pushing the world for more climate funds, set its policies right, and implement.

There is always hope - as long as the government acknowledges its people's endless capacity to stand against odds, and acts accordingly.